Only two weeks remain in December and in the NFL regular season. Several questions are going to be answered this weekend in what could go down as one of the most exciting finishes in recent history. Here are some things to take away from last weekends games and what to keep your eye on going forward.
- The Denver Broncos seemed to have the AFC South stamped until losing on thursday night against San Diego. Now it’s looking like there won’t be any time for rest if they hope to clinch a first round bye. They do play Houston and Oakland in the remaining two weeks but as we’ve seen in past, anything can happen in todays NFL.
- My suspicions seem correct about the Patriots, they struggled in Miami on sunday and just when it looked like Brady was going to string together magic once again he threw an interception to end the game. What I’m focusing on is the play directly before the interception; Brady threw the ball over the middle to replacement tight end Michael Hoomanawanui but he wasn’t able to bring it in. The disappointing part is it looked like a pass that Gronkowski would have caught 9 out of 10 times.
- Seattle has all but wrapped up home field advantage in the NFC throughout the playoffs. They demolished the Giants 24-0 at home bouncing back after only their second loss of the season. I can tell you one thing, its going to be extremely difficult to bet against this team come january.
- We saw six teams score 30 points or more this past weekend and lose. It looks like strong defensive outings are becoming harder and harder to come by as the year goes on; displaying just how valuable strong defensive teams like Carolina, Seattle, and San Francisco could be in their battle for the Lombardi.
- Jamal Charles had a ridiculous 5 touchdowns and 215 yards from scrimmage against Oakland. You just don’t see player performances like that every weekend. I’m sure that his stat line alone got some people to their fantasy football championship.
- Possibly the biggest game of the day ended with the Packers making a miraculous comeback in Dallas to beat the Cowboys 37-36. You can point the finger at Tony Romo yet again for throwing a late 4th quarter interception but this wasn’t all his fault. This defense blew a 26-3 half-time lead and for the 7th time this season allowed a team to score more than 30 points on them. At some point you have to start pointing the blame on Jason Garret and Monte Kiffen. This team has some serious issues to address and they have to do it fast, with only two weeks remaining they need to win out if they have any shot at making the playoffs.
Closing out week 15 my predictions went a combined 2-1-1 bringing me to a combined record of 28-26-2 this season. I might only be a couple games above .500 overall but I’ve been smokin’ since week 9 with a record of 21-11-3 in the last seven weeks. Lets see if I can keep the streak going; here is who I like going into week 16.
NFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCH-UP
DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS
ODDS: BET365
The Washington Redskins (3-11) will attempt to end their six game losing streak when they welcome division rivals Dallas (7-7) into town on sunday afternoon. The Cowboys are coming off possibly the worse second half collapse the league has seen this season, and entering the final two weeks have their fate playoff fate in their hands. As for the Redskins, they have been nothing short of terrible all season long and this can be seen through their 0-4 divisional record entering sunday. Oddsmakers have listed the Cowboys as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 53.5-points.
Neither one of these teams have been great this year but the Cowboys have much more to lose with a loss this weekend; and for that reason I like them to bring their A’ game into Washington and capture a much needed victory. Its hard to believe, but I think this Redskins team is actually getting worse. Its already clear as day Shannahan is gone after this season; even RG III stated that he believes he will be playing for a different coach next year. All this media coverage and speculation over what is happening in the front office has become a great distraction. It has lead the Redskins to losing six straight and propelled them to the worst defense in the league allowing an average of 31 points per game.
Things might not be all rainbows and butterflies for the Cowboys either but this team is much more well equipt to come into this game and win. I will gladly take Romo’s experience over Cousins inexperience; and Dez Bryant’s size and hands over the threat of Pierre Garcon deep all day long. Dallas will need a big performance from both of these guys if they hope to keep Washington at bay and I fully expect them to receive that. In Romo’s last five games after throwing two or more interceptions he has averaged 2.2 touchdowns and 0.4 picks. Expect for Dallas to have a monster offensive outing and for their defense to make big plays despite their recent struggles. Washington enters this game averaging a terrible 2.6 turnovers per game across their last 5. Looks to me like the Cowboys have a great chance to sweep the season series this weekend.
TRENDS
DALLAS
- 6-1 away off back-to-back against the spread losses
- 21-5 away after allowing more than 35 points in their previous outing
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up loss
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games versus NFC East opponents
WASHINGTON
- 2-9 in their last 11 versus the NFC East
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 following an against the spread win
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 versus the NFC East
- 1-9 as home dogs off straight up loss versus division opponents
FINAL SCORE – COWBOYS 35 – REDSKINS 28
NFC NORTH VS AFC NORTH
MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7)
ODDS: BET365
The Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) welcome the Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) into Paul Brown Stadium this weekend and hope to clinch a playoff spot for a third consecutive year. For that to happen they require a win and a Baltimore loss, or a win and a Miami loss. As for the Vikings their playoff chances are long gone but you wouldn’t know it from how tough they played Philadelphia last weekend. For this match-up oddsmakers have listed the Bengals as 7-point home favourites with a total set of 48 points.
I was actually pleasantly surprised to see how much respect oddsmakers are giving my Vikings this weekend. They have been playing some great football as of late showing a 2-1-1 record in their last four games; with each of them coming against teams in or chasing a playoff position (Green Bay, Chicago, Baltimore, Philadelphia). But even I think the Vikings should be listed as atleast 10-point underdogs in this game. Cincinnati has been one of the best teams this season when playing at home (only better team Seattle). Entering week 16 this Bengals team is riding a 6-0 record at home this year and are beating opponents by an average of 16 points. In their last three games alone they have won by two touchdowns or more. Now don’t get me wrong, I am a Viking’s fan till the end. But entering this game with a 0-6-1 record on the road this year the possibility of them keeping this game close seems extremely bleak.
As much as Matt Asiata had three touchdowns while filling in for Adrian Peterson last weekend, he also had only 51 yards on 30 carries. He isn’t a starting running back in this league and if Adrian fails to suit up again this weekend this game will be riding on the shudders of Matt Castle. Castle had a great game against Philadelphia completing 26/35 passes for two touchdowns but the Bengals have a great secondary. They enter this game ranking 7th against the pass giving up only 219 per game and have at least one interception in every home game this season except for one. Expect another great defensive performance and for the Bengals offense to put this game away early.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
- 2-13 in their last 15 road games versus opponents off a double digit straight up loss
CINCINNATI
- 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 home games
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 home games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following an against the spread loss
- 15-7-1 against the spread in their last 23 games overall
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 17 – BENGALS 28
AFC WEST VS AFC SOUTH
DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
ODDS: BET365
The Houston Texans (2-11) aim to end their longest losing streak in franchise history when they welcome the Denver Broncos (11-3) into town this sunday. As for the Broncos they hope to extend that losing streak; they are coming off their third loss this season and with a win could capture a first round playoff bye. Oddsmakers have listed Denver as 10.5-point road favourites with the over/under set at 51.5 points.
Denver had a stranglehold of the AFC division but following a loss last thursday the door is open for the Kansas City Chiefs. If the Broncos lose either of their last two games and the Chiefs win out Denver would drop down into the 5th playoff spot and lose a first round bye. Denver has much more to lose in this situation than what Houston does, and I expect we see that this weekend.
The Texans have already locked up the first overall pick in this years upcoming draft, they have lost two of their best players in Arian Foster and Brian Cushing for the remainder of the year, and have become the first team to officially fire their head coach. Not many positive things have been floating around this organization in 2013. As they welcome one of the best quarterbacks of all time into town this weekend, it doesn’t look like its going to get any better. Peyton Manning is only three touchdowns shy of the season record and I expect him to easily tie that this weekend. In Peyton’s last four games following a loss he has thrown 19 touchdowns, an average of almost 5 per game!
It would take a complete game on both sides of the ball for Houston to challenge Denver in this matchup. Chase Keenum will have to be near perfect game and their defense will have to limit Denver’s offensive time of possession under 29 minutes. The reason I say that? In Denver’s last four losses their has been a trend forming; their opponents have held their offensive possession under 29 minutes. But with this game circled on the schedule for many Broncos as revenge for their loss last season, I think Houston can throw everything but the kitchen sink at Denver this weekend and they are still destined to get blown out. Broncos bounce back in a big way and clinch the AFC South division and a first round bye.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss
- 7-2 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games in december
- 8-2 away off divisional game versus opponents that score less than 3 points in their previous game
HOUSTON
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 home games
- 0-7 against the spread after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game
- 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games overall
- 1-7 as underdogs of more than 3 points before going on the road to face a divisional rival
FINAL SCORE – 41 – TEXANS 17
NFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCH-UP
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3)
ODDS: BET365
The Carolina Panthers (10-4) are aiming to get revenge for their loss against New Orleans (10-4) when they welcome Drew Brees and the Saint into Bank of America Stadium this weekend. Carolina is fresh off their 10th win of the season and could not only clinch a playoff spot with a victory but it would also put them a game ahead of the Saints positioning them to capture a first round bye. As for the Saints they are coming off their fourth loss of the season but by winning their last two games of the season would clinch their third NFC South division title in the last five years. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Panthers as field goal favourites with a total set of 46.5 points.
Entering this weekend not many games have more implications or importance surrounding them than this one. Carolina has been the laughing stock of the NFC South for the last couple years and with a win could really turn the tables. New Orleans enters this game without losing back-to-back games all season long but I have them stencilled in for one here. The Saints are 3-4 when playing on the road this season and offensively average only 18 points per game when playing away from home. Now you might be saying that isn’t that terrible, but this same team is averaging nearly double that when playing at the Super Dome (32 PPG) and have been held under 30 points in only two of those seven games. Combine the with the fact Carolina is 6-1 at home this season and are giving up only 11 points per game to opponents in Bank Of America. The Panthers are in great shape to win this game and even up the season series.
Carolina will need a complete game to take down the Saints this weekend. I fully expect they show up and accept this challenge with a badge of honour. The only team that has beaten this Panthers team at home this year was Seattle, and even that game went down to the wire. The most important match-up to follow in this game will be how New Orleans handles the Panthers rushing attack. The Saints have struggled stopping the run on the road this year, they are giving up an average of 136 yards per game and are facing the three headed monster in Newton, Stewart and Williams this weekend. Everything in the ink points towards Carolina winning this game and stepping a game ahead of New Orleans with one week left.
TRENDS
NEW ORLEANS
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning home records
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 road games
- 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games versus Carolina
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games playing in Carolina
- 3-10 in their last 13 games after playing the Rams
CAROLINA
- 7-1 versus the Saints when they are off a straight up favourite loss
- 9-1 off a double digit against the spread loss with revenge versus divisional opponent
- 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as a home favourite
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
FINAL – SAINTS 20 – PANTHERS 29