Week 15 NFL Picks 2014

• The Cowboys dismantled the Bears on Thursday night 41-28. Entering week fifteen Dallas sits at 9-4 but could still miss the playoffs. They play at Philadelphia this weekend, host Indianapolis next weekend and close out the season at Washington. If they can’t finish at least 2-1 then I’m predicting the Eagles win the NFC East and Dallas drops out of a playoff position. Its difficult to imagine, but the Lions have a much more favourable schedule the next three weeks and with an identical record should secure that final wild-card spot. 
• Ben Roethlisberger put on a show defeating the Bengals 41-24 in Cincinnati. He connected with Martavis Bryant on a 94-yarder to secure the victory and going forward has made the AFC North only even closer. The Browns remain the only team over a game-back of winning the division and securing a playoff spot. I’m predicting a week seventeen showdown to decide who takes the closest division in all of football. 
  
• St. Louis shut-out Washington 24-0 to chalk up their second-consecutive game without allowing any points. They’ve gone over 8 quarters of football without conceding a single point and could throw a serious wrench in the NFC West down the stretch. Its hard to argue against the fact the Rams have the best defense in all of football the last couple weeks. 
• Carolina dismantled the Saints 41-10 in New Orleans. This was an outcome nobody could have predicted and brings the Saints home record to a miserable 0-4 in their last four games. But they still have a shot at the playoffs with everyone else in the NFC South also eating turds. Its become official that whoever wins this division will host a play-off game with a losing record, and should make the NFL reconsider options to ensure this doesn’t become a regular occurrence.
• Baltimore shocked the Dolphins in Miami and crippled their playoff hopes for the season. With  a 7-6 record the Dolphins need to finish the season undefeated and still get some help. But I just don’t see that happening with them travelling into New England this weekend. 
• Cleveland did a phenomenal job containing Andrew Luck all afternoon but in the end Indianapolis prevailed. Luck led the Colts to a 25-24 comeback victory and its already been established that Johnny Football will start under center for the Browns this weekend. Go ahead and add money Manziel to the list of quarterbacks the Browns have started in the last ten years. Playing the Bengals, Panthers and Ravens in the last three weeks it’s looking like Cleveland’s playoff hopes are limited; unless of course they find a way to defeat both Cincinnati and Baltimore, then they would be very very good. 
• Houston put on a show blowing up Jacksonville 27-13 and kept their post-season hopes alive in doing so. If they fail to defeat Indianapolis this weekend the will be all but eliminated from playoff talk and J.J Watt should have a minimal chance at elusive MVP award. I just can’t see them handing it out to a player that doesn’t advance his team into the post-season.
• Seattle held off Philadelphia for four quarters and handed the Eagles their first loss at home all season. With the Seahawks last three games being against divisional foes they could still steal the division title from the Cardinals. Their week sixteen affair could easily decide which of these teams rides into the January with home-field advantage. 
• Oakland handed the 49ers their second-consecutive loss and crushed all playoff hopes in doing so. Its looking like coach Harbaugh’s time is up in San Francisco and will be looking elsewhere for work next season. Might not be a bad change for the 49ers but with the way Colin Kaepernick has played this season its hard to argue he doesn’t deserve to burden some of this blame. He is the sixth highest payed quarterback in the NFL this season and is ranked outside the top twenty with his statistics. 
• New England fell behind 14-3 in San Diego but held the Chargers to a scoreless half and won 23-14 on Sunday night. The Patriots have arguably their best defensive squad in years and if they can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs it will be hard to see anyone taking away their bid for a 4th Superbowl under Tom Brady. 
  
• Aaron Rodgers kept the Packers undefeated on home soil this season with a victory on Monday night against the Falcons, and at this point has nearly secured that MVP award. His touchdown to interception ratio since November 9th is 0, and he hasn’t posted a quarterback rating below 109 since the end of October. Nobody has been playing better than him this season and if the Packers can clinch a first round bye and home-field advantage for the playoffs I don’t see anyone taking away the Packers bid for a second Superbowl in the last five years.

• 20-39 against the spread as underdogs in December
• 1-11 as underdog of 2 or more points off a straight up dog win
• 27-50 against the spread in the last four weeks of the regular season since 1992

• 6-3 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
• 4-2 against the spread at home this season
• 2-0 against the spread as a home favourite between 7.5-10 points this season 

Atlanta looks like they might be without their best offensive weapon this upcoming weekend. Julio Jones has a combined 448 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, but left Green Bay late in the forth quarter on Monday night with what is being diagnosed as a hip injury. Without him in the line-up for this game Pittsburgh should cruise to victory. The Steelers enter this game with one of the most well-rounded offensive teams in the league. After thirteen games they are 2nd in the league averaging over 300 passing yards per game, and 8th averaging 123 rushing yards per game. They have an endless arsenal of players that can score and with the Falcons giving up nearly 27 points per game this season, watching the Steeler eclipse 30 points for the 8th time this season seems inevitable. Unless the Falcons can keep this a low-scoring affair they are guaranteed to lose this game. Atlanta is 1-8 this season when they give up more than 20-points this season, while Pittsburgh is 7-2 when they score over 20 points this year.3

Pick your poison, the Steelers can beat you in multiple ways. Antonio Brown enters this game with the second most receiving yards in the league, while Le’Veon Bell has the most all purpose yards out of any player in the entire league. Both these guys are having monster seasons and teams have failed to contain both of them in the same game. The Falcons have no immediate answer for these guys, unless Roethlisberger throws multiple interceptions Atlanta will lose this game. Plus we shouldn’t overlook the fact the Falcons have suffered losses against every other AFC North opponent already this season. Take the Steelers 6th ranked scoring offense to secure a huge victory this weekend, keeping them in contention to win the AFC North this season.

TRENDS 


PITTSBURGH 

• 4-2 against the spread when the line is between +3 and -3 this season
• 9-5 against the spread versus NFC South opponents since 1992
• 4-1 straight up against Atlanta since 1992 

FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 36 – FALCONS 24 




AFC SOUTH  VS AFC NORTH 

Despite the blip in their last home game, Baltimore has been one of the best home teams in the league this season. In six home games they have allowed only two teams to score more than 10 points and in doing so are surrendering the lowest point total to opponents at home this season. Only Cincinnati and San Diego have been able to score over twenty points against the Ravens at home this season and both those teams have veteran quarterbacks with multiple years experience, two area’s which the Jaguars are lacking. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles is being thrown to the wolves this weekend. In four career starts away from Jacksonville the kid has thrown at least one interception in each game and has yet to post a quarterback rating above 70. With the Ravens defense playing ravage at home and Elvis Dumervile leading the league in sacks, Bortles might be having nightmares about this game until next season.

Joe Flacco should have plenty of time to ride the pony this weekend on offense. Jacksonville enters this match-up spending the 3rd highest amount of time on the field defensively and the Ravens are no strangers to putting up points at home. This season they have scored 28 or more points in four games and are 5th in the league averaging nearly five red-zone scoring attempts per game at home. They might not have a handful of playmakers on offense but the Ravens can score in multiple ways. This is a make or break game for the Ravens and in the past have been clutch when it comes to December. This marks the first road game for the Jaguars in three weeks, don’t be surprised when they fall behind early and struggle to make this a competitive contest.

TRENDS 


JACKSONVILLE 

• 2-5 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last three years
• 0-2 against the spread as an underdog of 10.5-14 points this season
• 1-5 against the spread in games played on field turf the last three seasons