Week 15 NFL Picks 2013

With December in full swing and week 14 a wrap we can begin to look ahead to the final three weeks of the regular season. The playoff picture is really starting to take form with several teams being mathematically eliminated after this past weekend, while we see others have already clinched division titles. Here are some of my thoughts about week 14 and predictions heading forward

• Week 14 made a strong case for the most exciting weekend of football all year. We saw a record 104 touchdowns scored, a blizzard in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore and a ridiculous 28 points scored in the final 2 minutes and 5 seconds between the Ravens and Vikings. We might not see another weekend like this one for a long time. 
• The Jaguars won their 4th game in 5 weeks and handed the Texans their 11th consecutive loss. Not much to say here except Houston made a great choice in firing Gary Kubiak. Nobody could have predicted that Houston a team several had slotted into the Superbowl this year would enter week 15 with the worst record in the entire NFL.
• Cincinnati absolutely demolished Indianapolis. This was one of the games wrote about and although I predicted incorrectly this game could have gone much different. At the end of the first half on a 4th & goal Cincinnati ran the ball and after clearly falling short and reviewing the play referees called it a touchdown and gave the Bengals a 14-0 lead heading into half-time. I can almost guarantee that someone is going to get fired over this call. Its disappointing because this could have been a totally different game had the Colts gone into halftime down only 7. 
• Speaking of blown calls the Patriots fell into a bed of gold when the ref’s made a weak pass interference call late in the 4th quarter that really decided this football game. The Browns played a complete game in New England and I’m hurting for all you Browns fans out there, I sincerely feel you were robbed of a victory. Despite this we can’t overlook that at the end of the day New England are the ultimate losers this weekend; Gronkowski is done for the year after suffering a torn MCL and ACL. With this news I can’t help but watch any chance the Patriots had of reaching the Super Bowl going down the drain also. Its simple; with Gronkowski in the lineup this is the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league this year, without him… they rank 22nd. 
  
• The Packers kept their playoff hopes alive with a victory at home against the Falcons and a Lions loss against Philadelphia. They desperately need Aaron Rodgers back for their push, and I desperately need Aaron Rodgers back for my fantasy football finals. I’ve got my fingers crossed that he suits up this week but something in the pit of my stomach tells me that this man might be done for the year and their playoff hopes could be riding on the shoulder’s of none other than street corner quarterback Matt Flynn. 
• Kansas City laid the beat down in Washington and handed the skins their 5th loss in a row. With controversy swirling in the locker room it sounds like Mike Shanahan could be without a job once the season is over. He has already stated that Kirk Cousins will be the starter this coming week and frankly I think it will be a good change for this team. I am expecting a good performance from them this weekend, but unfortunately not good enough too save Mike Shanahan’s job. 
• Denver won their 11th game of the season and Peyton Manning officially silenced all critics who said he can’t play in cold weather. He completed 39 of 59 passes for 397 passing yards and 4 touchdowns on route to a 51-28 drenching of the Titans. Peyton now has 45 passing touchdowns on the season and needs only 5 more to tie Tom Brady’s record of 50 set in 2007; seems easy enough to me. 

BUFFALO BILLS (-2) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 


ODDS: BET365 


The Buffalo Bills (4-9) enter Jacksonville this sunday to take on the Jaguars (4-9) who have been red hot as of late. In the last five weeks the Jags have four victories and are currently riding a three game streak. As for the Bills they are at the opposite end of the spectrum, they have lost two straight and five of their last six. Despite their current situation oddsmakers have listed the Bills as 2-point favourites for this matchup with a total set of 43 points.

Their is two things I am certain of entering this matchup, the Bills streak of terrible games won’t last forever; and the Jaguars pursuit of a four game win streak is extremely unlikely. The last time they won four games in a row was back in 2007. While their current streak has seen them beat Houston twice and Cleveland, teams that combine for a record of 6-19. As for the Bills, yes they might not have an amazing record but when they show up this team can dance with the best in the league. Three of their four victories this year are against teams that are presently in the playoffs, or the playoff picture. Its in the cards that the Bills show up this weekend, watch for a bounce back performance.

The Bills enter this matchup with possibly the best running pack tandem in the league. C.J Spiller and Fred Jackson combine for a running attack in this offense that not only creates versatility but competition. That competition has propelled the Bills to the 5th best rushing offense in the league  averaging 133 yards per game; and it just so happens that running the ball is this Jaguars team achilles heal. Jacksonville ranks 27th in the league and are giving up 126.8 yards on the ground per game. Look for Buffalo to get it done early on the ground and for their secondary that ranks 2nd in the league with 18 interceptions to put to bed any comeback Chad Henne can muster.

TRENDS 


BUFFALO 

• 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 following a straight up loss
• 8-1 straight up in their second of back-to-back away games
• 6-1-1 against the spread as road favourites between weeks 13-16