Week 13 is in the books and several teams can officially count themselves out of playoff contention. Those teams include the Atlanta (nobody could have guessed that one entering the season), Tampa Bay and Washington. Every other team in the league still has a shot to make the post-season, it may be long shot for several, but none the less it’s a shot. Here are some things I’m taking away from last weekend’s games and looking at going forward.
- Detroit laid the smack down on Green Bay on Thanksgiving thursday. They roasted them for 40 points and the Packers can’t get Aaron Rodgers back in the lineup sooner. They are now two games back of the Lions for the NFC North division lead and a playoff position. This weekend couldn’t be bigger for their playoff hopes.
- The Cardinals lost their first game in four weeks against Philadelphia in a game that ended because of a terrible defensive holding call by the referee. I strongly believe that Arizona was robbed of an opportunity to come back in this game or take the lead. Expect them to have a big game this weekend against divisional foes St. Louis.
- Speaking of the NFC West, this is by far the best division in all of football. Three of four teams have records above .500 and they combine for a 31-17 record. Pretty impressive considering this division was the worst in all of football only a couple years ago.
- The Jets lost their third consecutive game and finally everyone is witnessing how terrible this team is. They have the second worst point differential in the league at -122 and thankfully have finally realized that Geno Smith is not NFL ready after posting a combined average quarterback rating of 2.03 in his last three starts.
- Carolina continued their red hot streak with a victory at home now making it 8 in a row. They have possibly their biggest game of the year Sunday evening when they enter New Orleans. Huge implications ride on this outcome of this game, it could decide who wins the NFC South division.
- The Jaguars beat Cleveland for arguably the biggest upset of the weekend. Even Josh Gordon posting his second straight 200 yard receiving performance (first player in history to ever do so) couldn’t lead the Browns to victory. Disappointing all around, but mostly because they were the only team on my six game teaser that didn’t turn out.
- Atlanta took down Buffalo in Toronto for their first win in 6 weeks. It took overtime but this marks the second year in a row the Bills have lost in Toronto and fourth in their last five. Look for them to play upset down the stretch.
- The Broncos remained undefeated against divisional opponents under Peyton Manning’s watch. They disposed of the Chiefs for a second time this season handing them their third consecutive loss after starting 9-0. I’m expecting big things from both these teams this upcoming weekend and for the rest of the season.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+6.5) VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
ODDS: BET365
This weekend we see the Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) welcome Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts (8-4) into Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals have won two straight and are looking to improve on their 5-0 home record this season; while the Colts hope to win their first back-to-back game since week 9. Oddsmakers have listed the Bengals as 6.5-point home favourites with a total set of 43-points.
Nobody has been able to take down the Bengals at home this season but if anyone is going to accomplish this feat it will be the Colts. They have been extremely hit or miss this season but I’m betting on them being a big time hit this weekend. Entering this game the Colts rank 12th in league defensively giving up only 22.8 points per game. They have struggled as of late on the road (allowing Arizona to score 40) but I expect them to find their rhythm in this matchup. Indianapolis has thrived off playing good opponents this year and are 3-1 against teams with a record better than .500. They have already knocked off the Broncos, Seahawks and 49ers this year and while a victory seems once again unlikely, nobody can argue that this Indianapolis Colts team has not been unLUCKey this year.
The key matchup to follow in this game will be the Colts offensive line versus Cincinnati’s defensive line. Indianapolis has been less than spectacular this year at protecting their quarterback but with the Bengals defensive injuries piling up Andrew Luck could see significant time to make his looks and check downs. If he is able to accomplish this and Cincinnati fails to get pressure on him then Luck and Indianapolis could cruise down the field on sunday.
TRENDS
INDIANAPOLIS
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in week 14
- 21-10-2 against the spread in their last 33 games against a team with a winning record
- 4-0 straight up in their last 4 games versus the AFC
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
- 5-1 before facing the Texans
- 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games in week 14
- 2-7 in their last 9 games versus the Colts
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a road favourite
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road favourite between 0.5-3-points
- 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games as an underdog
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games
TENNESSE TITANS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-12)
ODDS: BET365
The Tennessee Titans (5-7) enter Denver this sunday to take on the Broncos (10-2) in Mile High Stadium. The Broncos not only have the second best record in all of football but they are undefeated at home this season. Tennessee is hoping they can stop that streak, but its going to take a electric performance by their defense to prevent losing their second consecutive game. Oddsmakers have listed the home town Broncos as 12-point favourites with a total set of 48.5 points.
Oddsmakers are expecting this match to be lopsided and I’m happy to jump right on that bandwagon. This Peyton Manning led Bronco’s team has been unstoppable all season. They are 1st averaging 336 passing yards per game and have scored 124 more points and 20 more touchdowns than the second place teams in both these categories. Which should speak volumes about how Tennessee is going to struggle to contain this offense in Denver. Only one team has held the Broncos under 30 points at home this season (Kansas City) and with the Titans posting a a 0-6 record when they allow teams to score more than 25 points, this weekend looks bleak for Tennessee fans.
If the Titans have a shot in the dark of challenging Denver in this game they will have to accomplish two very important tasks, put pressure on Manning and keep the Broncos offense off the field. If they control the possession in this game it would prevent them falling behind big and allow them to stay committed to the run game. Unfortunately this Broncos team is just way to good and I don’t see any of that happening. Ryan Fitzpatrick will become relied up to throw Tennessee back into this game which makes me believe that Denver’s defense should have no problem improving on their 14 interceptions this season.
TRENDS
TENNESSEE
- 10-25-1 against the spread in their last 36 games versus teams with a winning record
- 1-4 against the spread versus the AFC in their last 5 games
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite
- 12-5-1 against the spread in their last 18 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in December
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games versus teams with losing records
- 4-0 in their last 4 games versus Tennessee
- 0-7 as underdogs of 10 points or less versus an opponent with revenge
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up loss
- 5-0 at home off back-to-back away games
- 7-1 favourites versus opponents off back-to-back straight up wins
- 20-6 against the spread in their last 26 games as home favourites