Week 13 NFL Picks 2014

• The Raiders finally got on the scoreboard with their first victory of the season. They defeated Kansas City 24-20 on Thursday night; and you would have thought they won the Superbowl with the celebration. Everything aside, this could become a big divisional loss for the Chiefs with playoff repercussions. A win would have meant a share of the division lead, but instead they decided throwing up on themselves was a better idea. Facing the Broncos, Cardinals, and Steelers in the next four weeks, its hard to know where they could sit. They have defeated 9-2 New England and 7-4 Seattle this year, but lost against 2-9 Tennessee and Oakland 1-10? Not sure what to expect of them as we head down the stretch.
• Cleveland downed the Falcons in Atlanta 26-24 and improved to 4-1 in their last five games. Josh Gordon didn’t skip a beat in his first game back, racking up 120 yards on eight catches. While the Falcons despite losing, remain in a playoff position following the Saints 34-27 loss on Monday night. 
  
• The Patriots dismantled the Lions handing Detroit their worst loss all season. It marked the 7th straight win for New England and their four straight game scoring 34 or more points. Nobody is playing better football right now but a trip to Lambeau field this weekend should test their toughness. Could this be a preview of this years Superbowl? Either way, its going to be one of the best games all weekend.
• Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to their third straight win and for the first time this season they sit first place in the NFC North. Its officially their division to lose but don’t expect Rodgers to let that happen. He is arguably having the best year of his career with 30 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions and looks to me like the clear cut MVP candidate with only five weeks remaining.
• Seattle handed Arizona only their second loss all season in a 19-3 convincing home victory. Nobody has contained the Cardinals offense as successful as the Seahawks did this past Sunday. It was an impressive performance all around and an pivotal win for Seattle to stay within the divisional race.
• Denver narrowly avoided back-to-back losses scoring a huge 22-point fourth quarter against the Dolphins in Mile High Stadium. Peyton Manning had yet another impressive outing with 4 touchdowns while this game could prove costly for Miami down the stretch dropping them two games back of a wildcard spot.
• Odell Beckham Jr. had what some are calling the best catch of all-time against the Cowboys on Sunday night football. If you haven’t seen it yet, you can catch it here…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7w33hKARh8 Dallas eventually won the game on Dez Bryants two touchdowns putting them into a tie for first place in the NFC East. Welcoming Philadelphia into town this weekend will decide who leads this division down the stretch, and could ultimately decide which of these teams makes the post-season. 
• The Bills become the third team this season to hold the Jets to 3-points or less in a game. They romped New York 34-3 in Detroit and carry a 6-5 record into the final weeks. Given the amount of friends I have that are Bills fans, I can’t help but hope for their success. Unfortunately, facing Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay and New England in the coming weeks, making the post-season would be a miracle.
• The AFC North division remains anyone’s for the taking with the Bengals, Ravens and Browns all clinching victories this past weekend. Cincinnati holds the slight lead with their lone tie at 7-3-1, but everyone else remains at 7-4. This marks the first time in NFL history that every team in a single division sit three games above .500. Making the AFC North by far the best division in football right now, and should make for an great finish down the stretch. 

 Last weekend my predictions finished an magnificent 3-1. I was correct in predicting the Browns and Vikings to both cover as underdogs. While the Colts would be victorious as huge 13.5-point favourites. Unfortunately my perfect weekend was faulted when the Cardinals failed to cover as 7-point underdogs in Seattle. None the less, my record has improved to 27-20-1 on the year, and 9-3 in the last three weeks. Lets take a gander at some of the games I like this weekend.

CLEVELAND BROWNS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5) 


ODDS: BET365 


The Buffalo Bills (6-5) return home this weekend after being forced to play last weekend’s scheduled home game in Detroit due to a record amount of snowfall. They are set to welcome the Cleveland Browns (7-4) into Ralph Wilson Stadium this weekend with kick-off scheduled for 1PM EST. Buffalo will be looking to avenge a 24-12 loss they suffered in Cleveland against the Browns in 2012. While the Browns are looking to improve to 8-4 for the first time in well over ten years. Oddsmakers have listed the Bills as 2.5-point favourites for the matchup, with a total set of 41.5 points.

Cleveland is entering week thirteen of the regular season still in the playoff picture for the first time in a long time. There is no denying they have played very consistent all season long but they have also had a favourable schedule to this point. Of their 11 games to this point, 7 of them have been played at home, and for the first time this season they play back-to-back road games. It took a last second field goal for them to secure victory last weekend, but I don’t believe they will be quite as successful against this Bills team. Buffalo is allowing the forth fewest points per game this season at 19, and have one of the most fearsome defensive lines in the league. Through 11 weeks they lead the NFL with 46 sacks; 8 more than the next best team. It’s no secret they love to blitz the quarterback and forcing that pressure has helped their secondary in picking off opposing quarterbacks 13 times already this season. With them entering this game as one of the best teams in the league at forcing turnovers; and Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions in his last two games; Buffalo looks in line for another great defensive showing.

Its no secret that Buffalo loves running the ball, and they should have great success doing that this weekend. Cleveland enters this game 29th in the league giving up 134 rushing yards per game. As for the Bills run defense, they have been incredible this season giving up less than 100 yards per game and are tied for second place in the league with only 5 rushing touchdown allowed all season. This is a major red flag considering the Browns rely heavily on running the ball to score. In their last three games they have only one passing touchdown, and this season have earned over half their touchdowns (14 of 25) by running the ball. Go all-in on the Bills this weekend, their defense won’t disappoint.

TRENDS 

CLEVELAND 

• 1-2 against the spread as a road underdog of 3-points or less the last three seasons
• 1-7 against the spread as road dogs of less than 5-points versus above .500 opponents
• 5-16 straight up in all road games the last three seasons