American Thanksgiving is upon us and with that means a huge weekend packed full of games. It officially kicks off on Thursday when we see the Packers take on the Lions, Cowboys host the Raiders and Ravens welcome the Steelers into town. The post-season picture is really taking place and following this weekend we should have a great insight into who will be playing come January. Lets take a look at some of last weeks highlights and where we stand entering the last quarter of the season.
- The Buccaneers took down the Lions to win their third straight. They are still a long shot to make the post season but you wouldn’t know it with how they have been playing as of late.
- The Packers and Vikings game finished in a tie. This was the first tie since last November between San Francisco and St. Louis. Heading down the stretch the NFC North is still up for grabs. Green Bay is only a half game back of both Detroit and Chicago for the division lead, showcasing how important their Thanksgiving matchup against Detroit really is. They desperately need Aaron Rodgers to return to the lineup.
- Houston has officially lost 9 straight and have been labeled by many as the worst team in football. Not much for fans to look forward to here, except next season..
- The Chargers handed the Chiefs their second consecutive loss in what was the highest scoring game all weekend. Kansas City conceded more than 30 points for the first time this season, they lost Tamba Hali and Justin Houston both to injury and it should be interesting what the injury report states this week for these guys. This could be a serious blow to the tenacity of their defense.
- Carolina won their 7th straight and knocked off Miami in the final seconds of the game. We can no longer ignore what Cam Newton and the Panthers defense has been accomplishing. They are a serious Superbowl contender this year.
- Arizona absolutely demolished the Colts at home in the biggest blowout of the weekend 40-11. They have won 4 straight and their defense has been lights out. Looking forward the Cardinals have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. They face a really tough schedule down the stretch but thats the NFC West division for you. Should be interesting to see what they can accomplish.
- Just when it looked like Peyton Manning was going to get revenge for last years loss against the Patriots he blew all four tires while Brady orchestrated what is the biggest comeback of the season. I was disappointing to see this game decided by a special teams mishap in overtime, but hey, a wins a win.
It was looking as though I was going to finish last week at 3-1 but with the Brady comeback I officially went 2-2. Through 12 weeks and three quarters of the season my record is at a standstill of 22-22-1. Lets take a look at who I’m betting on this Thanksgiving weekend.
AFC WEST VS NFC EAST
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+7.5) VS DALLAS COWBOYS
ODDS: BET365
Kicking off the afternoon game this Thanksgiving Thursday we will see the Dallas Cowboys (6-5) welcome the Oakland Raiders (4-7) into MetLife Stadium. Oakland has been slumping as of late going 1-3 in their last 4 games while the Cowboys return home after splitting a two game road trip. Oddsmakers have listed the Cowboys as 7.5-point favourites at home on Thursday with a over/under set at 49.5.
Oakland might be three games below .500 this season but through 12 weeks they have a 6-4-1 against the spread record. They have lost three games this year by 4 points or less and lets get real, the Cowboys are a team prone to letdowns. Dallas has won back-to-back games only once this season and enter this game ranking 30th defensively when stopping the rush. This should be concerning with the Raiders rushing attack ranking 4th overall in the league averaging 140.6 yards per game. This result looks to be much closer than 7 points.
Much of my focus for this game is around not only the fact Dallas has struggled on defense this season but with the fact they are extremely banged up. Starting cornerback Morris Claiborne did not practise this week due too a hamstring injury as well as their defensive play caller and captain Sean Lee. Both these guys are so important for this Cowboys team and overall tenacity; they account for 117 of 751 teams tackles and 5 of the 12 team interceptions this season. Without these leaders on the field this thursday rookie quarterback Matt McGlion should easily improve on his 4 touchdowns in his first two career starts. These two teams might not meet often with their last matchup coming in 2009, but Oakland has won three of the last four games played in Dallas since 1983.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up loss
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games following an against the spread loss
- 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 9 road games
- 13-4 away off a straight up loss
DALLAS
- 2-10 when above.500 at home off a straight up New York Giants win
- 7-16 against the spread in their last 23 games following a straight up win
- 5-12 against the spread in their last 17 games as a home favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 2-6 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
FINAL SCORE – RAIDERS 23 – COWBOYS 24
NFC WEST VS NFC EAST
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3) VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
ODDS: BET365
Two of the hottest teams in the NFL kick-off at 1PM EST in Philadelphia when the Eagles (6-5) welcome the Arizona Cardinals (7-4) into Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles have won three straight, are coming off their bye week and currently sit atop the NFC East conference. While the Cardinals have won four straight for the first time since starting last years season 4-0. Oddsmakers have installed the Eagles as 3-point favourites at home with a total set of 48.5 points.
Following last weekend blowout against Indianapolis people are no longer ignoring the Arizona Cardinals. They enter this game as the highest scoring offense in the last four weeks averaging 30 points per game; while across that same span their defense has been spectacular holding teams to an average of 15 points per game. They currently rank 8th in total yards allowed per game and sit behind only Seattle and Buffalo in interceptions this season (15).
Expect this matchup to quickly become a game of Chip Kelly’s offense scheming versus Bruce Arians defense. Nick Foles will be relied upon and he has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league as of late. He has thrown 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last three starts and due to his incredible play Chip has already been announced him the starter for the remainder of the season. What is concerning for me is the Eagles last three victories have come against Oakland, Green Bay and Washington; less than impressive defensive squads. Each one of these teams sit in the bottom half of the league of for total yards per game and are allowing 24 points per game or more this season. Foles hasn’t faced a defensive team like the Cardinals this season, I expect him to struggle against this tough Arian’s secondary.
When Foles fails to get the chains moving look for the Eagles to place the workload on LeSean McCoy. He leads the Eagles league best running attack but facing a Cardinals team that is giving up only 81.3 yards per game and has allowed only 4 rushing touchdowns all year; even McCoy looks to have a mountain to climb this sunday. Furthermore, how can you overlook the fact Philadelphia is allowing the 2nd most yards in the league at 417.9 yards per game. Look for the Cardinals to win their 5th straight and hold their playoff destiny in their hands as they face divisional rivals in three of their final four games.
TRENDS
ARIZONA
- 4-1 in their last 5 games versus Philadelphia
- 12-2 in their last 14 games above .500 versus non-divisonal opponent with a record above .500
- 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 game in week 13
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
PHILADELPHIA
- 0-7 with revenge versus opponents of back-to-back straight up wins
- 0-8 at home versus non-divisional conference opponents
- 0-6-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games versus opponents with a winning road record
- 6-20-1 against the spread in their last 27 home games
FINAL SCORE – CARDINALS 27 – EAGLES 16
NFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
ST. LOUIS RAMS (+8) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
ODDS: BET365
The San Francisco 49ers (7-4) return home this weekend after knocking off the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football. They host divisional rivals St. Louis (5-6) and desperately need a victory in Candlestick Park if they wish to stay within a NFC Wildcard position. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown 49ers as 8-point favourites with a total set of 42 points for this matchup.
Both of these teams have been hot and cold the entire season. They each have very respectable records but it is the Rams that enter this game on a two game winning streak. They knocked off both the Bears and Colts handily and will be ready for anything division rivals San Francisco can throw at them. The 49ers enter this matchup 6th in rushing yards but dead last when throwing the ball this season. Its easy to see Colin Kaepernick hasn’t formed into the quarterback everyone thought he would be after his performance in last years post-season. Through 12 weeks he has a quarterback rating of 65.8 and his 185 passing yards per game ranks him dead last in starting quarterbacks in the NFL. He has struggled reading secondaries at times this season and anyone could easily argue he has been hit with the worst sophomore slump out of all second year quarterbacks. Another tough outing this weekend should not be out of the question.
Not many teams in the league have been running the ball better than St. Louis and Zac Stacey. In their last four games the Rams have averaged 189.5 yards on the ground! With a massive 200 yard outing coming on the road against Seattle in week 8. The 49ers have done well stopping the run again this season (12th), but shutting down one of the hottest running backs in the league is a tough task.
As for the Rams they have been playing some of their best football as of late. They have 5 interceptions in the last two games and given the fact divisional games are always close; I expect the Rams to easily cover a massive 8-point spread this weekend.
TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
- 9-0 after scoring 35 or more points
- 5-0 away with a record below .500 off back-to-back straight up wins
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in week 13
- 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games versus the NFC West
- 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog
SAN FRANCISCO
- 1-6 after allowing less than 7 points versus divisional opponent off straight up win
- 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games playing a sunday game following a monday night game
- 2-5 against the spread in their 7 games versus the NFC West
FINAL SCORE – RAMS 23 – 49ERS 26
NFC SOUTH VS NFC WEST
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+4.5) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
ODDS: BET365
The Seattle Seahawks (10-1) and New Orleans Saints (9-2) are set to square off monday night at Century Link Field in one of the most anticipated games this weekend. Seattle should be well rested fresh off their bye week and aim build upon their current 6 game win streak. As for New Orleans, they have stringed together a three game win streak themselves and are trying to improve to a perfect 3-0 against the NFC West division this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as 4.5-point favourites with a total set of 47 points.
Both Seattle and New Orleans are amongst the elite teams in the league this season and respectively they each lead their divisions. Seattle has found success once again this season running the ball and playing great defense. They haven’t lost at home since 2011, but they also haven’t faced a offense or quarterback like Drew Brees in quite some time. Brees is once again having a career year throwing for an average of 332 yards per game and he sits behind only Peyton Manning in total yards this season. Seattle is going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at him on monday, but I think they are going to struggle for very different reasons; Jimmy Graham, Brandon Browner and Walter Thurman. Graham and Brees have the best quarterbacks/tight end repertoire in the league. They have connected for 946 yards and a league best 11 touchdowns this season. As for Browner and Thurman, they are amongst the elite cornerbacks in the Seattle secondary, and possibly the league. But with both of them sitting out this weekend due to suspensions, this Seattle secondary suddenly looks quite vulnerable.
I’m sure we have all heard an earful of how Seattle has one of the best defensive teams in the league, but it is New Orleans that is amongst be most balanced this season. They rank 5th overall in total yards allowed this season and have held each of their last three opponents too 20 points or less. While we all know Century Link Field is one of the toughest stadiums to play in the league, I predict the Saints give them a great run for their money this Monday.
TRENDS
NEW ORLEANS
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 monday night games
- 6-2 versus non divisional opponents off 3 or more straight up wins
- 4-1 versus opponents who scored 40 or more points in their previous game
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games in December
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread loss
SEATTLE
- 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following a bye week
- 0-8 as favourites of more than 3 points off straight up win by 14 points or more versus an opponent with a record above .500
- 1-8 after scoring 35 points or more versus a non divisional opponent off straight up win of 7 points or less
FINAL SCORE – SAINTS 31 – SEAHAWKS 34