Week 13 is here, we have officially hit the last quarter of NFL games. The post-season picture is beginning to get more defined and after the games this weekend we will have a very good idea where teams will be heading into january. Here are some things that I enjoyed from last weekend;
- The Falcons should be considered a serious contender for the Lombardi trophy. They are now 11-1 this season after beating the Saints on thursday and have almost clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I know is I wouldn’t want to be the team coming to the Georgia dome and facing this team. They are winning close games and doing so under pressure. My darkhorse to win this year is looking good and the bet I placed prior to the start of season on them at 35/1 couldn’t be looking better.
- The Raiders have the absolute worst defense in the entire league, it isn’t even close. They have given up 169 points on defense in their last 4 games. That is 14 more points than what the San Francisco 49ner defense has allowed all season!
- The Steelers look terrible without Big Ben under center. They just aren’t the same team, hence losing to Cleveland this past weekend. Going forward without him is going to be a daunting task, especially facing division rivals Baltimore this weekend. Don’t be surprised if they miss the post-season this year if Roethisburger isn’t back soon
- The Cardinals continue to crap all over themselves. They have nobody to start at quarterback and have the worst offensive line in the league. I don’t know if anybody has started 4-0 and gone on to lose 7 straight. By now I’m sure all your friends that are Cardinals have shut up or are no longer Cardinals fans.
- I still don’t know how I feel about the Gaints. They made Green Bay look terrible on sunday night, but is that the team they really are? Or are they the ones who only put up 13 points against Cincinnati and lose in week 10? It’s a coin flip each week with this team
- The Chargers imploded once again last week. Blowing at 13-3 lead in the 4th quarter against the Ravens and giving up a terrible 4th and 28 play action pass to Ray Rice for a new set of downs. Norv Turner won’t be the head coach of this team for much longer.
- Carolina could be a scary going down the stretch. They might not make the post-season this year but I guarantee they will play a great upset team. If Cam Newton plays like he did last week against the Eagles he might be able to do it all single handedly.
Entering this week my record is 25-20-1 and I am 55% on the season. Last week I went 2-2, this week I’m hope to go a perfect 4-0. Here are the games I like this weekend.
GAME 1 – NFC WEST VS NFC NORTH
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5)
The first game I like this weekend is the Bears to win at home by at least 3.5 and improve to 9-4 on the season. Some people might not like this choice but here are the things I am looking at.
Jay Cutler is back at quarterback for this Bears team after a little over a game and a half. He might not be the best in the league, but nobody can deny he does make this offense undeniably better. He has them 11th in the league averaging 25.2 points per game. Something they should be able to reach in this game against a Seattle defense that has to deal with the losses of two of their top cornerbacks.
Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are both facing 4 game suspensions for violating the NFL PED policy. Telling me that not only is Seattle on the road and without their home field dominance to rely on, but they won’t have two of their best defensive players in this game. Something that is seriously going to hurt this team.
If that isn’t enough, how about the fact Chicago’s defense is the most dominate in the league and are facing a rookie quarterback. They put up 41 points in week 1 against rookie Andrew Luck, forcing 3 interceptions and 5 total turnovers. Something this defense is very familiar with forcing a league leading 20 interceptions this season. I see Chicago pulling away fast in this one. Here are some things I like entering this matchup;
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games on the road
- 1-6 away versus an opponent off a double digit straight up win
- 0-7 away versus an opponent off a double digit straight up win in games 9-12
CHICAGO
- 9-2 after the vikings
- 5-1 straight up in its last 6 games at home
FINAL SCORE – SEAHAWKS 13 – BEARS 35
GAME 2 – AFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
HOUSTON TEXANS (-6) VS
TENNESSEE TITANS
This is the second matchup between these division rivals this season. In the first game Houston was favoured by 12.5. This game they enter 6 point favourites and I am happy to take those points all day long.
Tennessee has turned their season around in the last couple weeks, after starting 1-4 are 5-6 entering this game still holding onto post-season hopes. Something I see the Texans squashing. Houston is averaging 29.7 points per game offensively, good for 2nd in the league, only behind the Patriots. Don’t be impressed if they score at least 30 in this game since the Titans are allowing 30.5 points per game. Second most in the league behind only the Oakland Raiders.
The only way the Tennessee is going to have a shot in this game is if Chris Johnson brings his ‘A’ game. Something that he will struggle to do against Houston’s 2nd ranked rushing defense giving up only 87.5 yards a game. Here are some trends for this matchup;
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games on the road
- 4-1 in these teams last 5 matchups
- 7-2 as divisional favourites of more than 4 points
- 9-2 in second of back-to-back road games
- 19-8 in all games against the spread the last 2 seasons
TITANS
- 1-5-1 before facing the colts
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games at home
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games playing Houston
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 28 – TITANS 17
GAME 3 – NFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+9.5) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
This game might come back to bite me in the ass not only because the Vikings are my team, but because the Packers got spanked last week. I personally believe that this spread is just to big and the biggest they have seen since being 8.5 underdogs in San Francisco week 3. A game they won by the way.
Minnesota has been a surprise this season with a 6-5 record and if they beat the Packers will pull even record wise. Something nobody could have predicted coming into the season. There is two key matchup’s to follow in this game, Vikings pass defense versus Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s rush defense versus Adrian Peterson. Both of these guys are the best in the league at their positions. Peterson has had over 100 yards rushing in each of his last 5 games averaging 147 each game! To go with that he has 1236 total yards this season, 172 yards more than 2nd place rusher Arian Foster. Keep in mind this is all being accomplished after only months removed from knee surgery. If that doesn’t shout MVP then I don’t know what does.
As for the Vikings defense they will have their hands full with Aaron Rodgers. It is a daunting task but something that I think the Vikings players will take with stride. Watch for the Vikings defense to pressure Rodgers much like the Giants did last weekend. Here are some trends between these two;
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 11-3-1 against the spread as road dogs of more than 4 points directly off a loss
GREEN BAY
- 1-8 as home favourites of less than 13 points versus an opponent with revenge off a loss
- 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games at home
- 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games at home against Minnesota
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 24 – PACKERS 27
GAME 4 – NFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
NEW YORK GIANTS VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+2.5)
In the second matchup between these two teams I am gonna take the Redskins at home to cover the 2.5 points they have been given.
RG III has been playing his best football to date the last couple weeks. He has won their last two games throwing for 4 touchdowns in each, while knocking off the Eagles and Cowboys. If he can help them pull out a win this week they will be that much closer to a wild card spot in the NFC.
I’m pretty sure everyone remembers the matchup between these two in week 7 where the Redskins pulled ahead with just over a minute left in the game, only to lose on a 80 yard touchdown catch by Victor Cruz. This might have been 5 weeks ago but I am sure it is still fresh in the minds of Redskins defenders and they are going to come out hot looking to avenge that loss.
The Redskins home defense ranks 7th in the league while New York just isn’t the same on the road ranking 16th offensively. Washington ranks 2nd on their home field when it comes to rushing the ball. They put up 249 against this same Giants team in week 7 in New York, with 89 coming off the legs of RG III. I can’t wait to see what they are capable of doing at home in this game. Here are some trends to watch for in this game;
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against Washington
- 2-11 away versus opponents off straight up dog wins in game 9 through 12
WASHINGTON
- 4-1 against the spread versus the Giants in the last 3 seasons
- 5-0-2 after facing the Cowboys
- 4-1 against the spread as road dogs this season
FINAL SCORE – GIANTS 24 – REDSKINS 27