As we enter week twelve of the regular season it feels as though 2014 has flown by. Only six weeks of football remain with this weekend signifying the last bye week for teams. After week twelve every team will be in action until the end of December. Looking down the stretch Oakland remains the only team statically eliminated from the playoffs this season, while several other teams are close, they still have a mathematical shot. Lets take a look at some headlines from last weekend.
- Houston got back on track dismantling the Browns 23-7 in Cleveland. This turned out to be another fantastic game for J.J Watt who recorded a one sack, fumble recovery and a touchdown. Bringing his touchdown total on the season to four. Impressive considering an abundance of offensive players don’t have a touchdown total that high this season.
- Atlanta officially took the NFC South division lead with a 19-17 win over Carolina and a New Orleans loss. Frankly, I don’t care who wins this division. They are as good as done in the wild-card round. If the playoffs started today Atlanta would face Green Bay. Could we really see at 7-point home dog in the first round of this years playoff?
- Cincinnati couldn’t be happier to welcome A.J Green back into the lineup. He torched New Orleans for 127 yards and one touchdown in his first game back, leaving the Saints with back-to-back home losses for the first time since 2012.
- The Buccaneers made a mockery of RGIII holding him to 7-points in a 27-7 blowout. Mike Evans was the poster child for this game with 209 yards and two touchdowns and has been on fire with five touchdowns in his last three games. The kid is having a phenomenal rookie season, no doubt about it. Consider this, even with a 2-8 record the Buccaneers are only two games back of a playoff position. I’ll say it once again, the NFC South is the worst division in football.
- Biggest upset of the weekend goes to St.Louis limiting Denver to only 7-points, and winning 22-7. This marks the first time that Peyton Manning has been held to 7-points or less as a member of the Broncos. Anyone who watched the game could see flashbacks to last years Superbowl. St. Louis should be circled on your calendar going forward. This team has been playing stellar defense lately and should upset a couple more teams down the stretch.
- Eli. That’s all Giants fans could mutter on Sunday following New Yorks 16-10 loss against San Francisco. This game had New York written all over it, but Eli struggled all afternoon throwing FIVE interceptions. Looks like he hasn’t gotten over that slump after all, maybe the west coast offense isn’t the answer.
- Kansas City continued their winning streak wrapping up Seattle. Jamal Charles single handedly won this game running for 160 yards and two touchdowns. The Seahawks had no answer and are decimated by injuries right now. They are not in a good spot right now facing Arizona, San Francisco and Philadelphia in the next three weeks.
- Green Bay wiped the floor with Mark Sanchez scoring two defensive touchdowns. For the first time in over 10 years the Eagles surrendered more than 50 points while the Packers have scored 50 or more points in consecutive home games. Facing the Vikings, Falcons, Bills and Buccaneers down the stretch the Packers should easily cruise into a playoff spot and could clinch home field advantage if they can sneak a victory out of either New England or Detroit.
- Andrew Luck suffered yet another loss against Tom Brady. The Patriots won their sixth consecutive game and sit at 8-2 after a 2-2 start. As much as I hate to say this, the Patriots look like the team to beat right now. Nobody has been playing better, and a healthy Gronkowski makes their offense virtually unstoppable. In their last three games he is averaging 7 catches, 108 yards and nearly two touchdowns per game. Just imagine what this team would be if Aaron Hernandez hadn’t killed a man.
Entering week twelve my yearly predictions sit at a 24-19-2 record. I finished 2-2 last weekend with the Chiefs and Packers both covering. While the Broncos and Colts faltered my plans. Lets see the teams I’ll be standing behind this weekend.
AFC NORTH VS NFC SOUTH
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3) VS ATLANTA FALCONS
ODDS: BET365
The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) look to increase their NFC South division lead when they welcome the Cleveland Browns (6-4) into the Georgia Dome this weekend. Cleveland went from first to worst in a tight AFC North this past weekend and look to get back into the win column. While the Falcons went from worst to first in a terrible NFC South. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Falcons a 3-point favourites with a total set of 47-points for this matchup.
Atlanta has all the offensive weapons in place to be one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but they simply haven’t lived up to the expectations this season and should be in for another tough outing hosting Cleveland. The Browns enter this game the 4th best passing defense in the league on the road. They are limiting teams to an average of 216 yards per game through the air and have picked off several quarterbacks already this season with 14 interceptions. Its going to be a matchup of strength versus strength in this game and it looks like Cleveland has the slight advantage. Joe Haden is one of the best cornerbacks in the entire league and given the circumstances that Atlanta has had issues rushing the ball this season, he should be able to fully commit himself to shutting down both Julio Jones and Roddy White.
Josh Gordon’s ten game suspension has been served and he returns to action this weekend. He brings the perfect combination of the size and speed that the Browns receiving core has been lacking and should have no trouble torching the Falcons secondary in his first game back. Atlanta sits dead last in the league giving up nearly 290 passing yards per game at home this season. This is a perfect letdown situation, the Falcons haven’t won a game outside their division all season. While the Browns haven’t lost back-to-back games all season. Take the points and Cleveland on the road with no apprehension this weekend.
TRENDS
CLEVELAND
- 2-0 against the spread as a road underdog this season
- 3-1 against the spread versus Atlanta since 1992
- 7-2 against the spread where the total is between 45.5-49 points since 1992
ATLANTA
- 0-5 against the spread at home versus above .500 opponent off a straight up favourite loss
- 1-6 against the spread in 1st of back-to-back home games
- 0-3 against the spread off a win against a division rival this season
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 23 – FALCONS 17
NFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+9.5)
ODDS: BET365
The Minnesota Vikings (4-6) look to get back into the win column this weekend when they welcome division rivals Green Bay (7-3) into town. The Vikings have lost two straight and are still looking for that elusive first victory against a division opponent this season. While the Packers have been scoring on command, they have put up a combined 108 points in their last two games. Its been difficult to stop Aaron Rodgers as of late, and for that reason Oddsmakers have listed Green Bay as 9.5-point road favourites with an over/under of 48.5.
Green Bay has been torching every opponent that stands in their path the last couple weeks, but we can’t forget they haven’t played their best football on the road. In five road games this season they are 2-3 and allowing 28 points per a game. A far cry from the 17 points per game and a 5-0 unbeaten record at home this season. While Minnesota hasn’t been spectacular this season, we can’t forget this is a divisional game and should result in a closer outcome than 10 points. In addition the Vikings are looking for revenge and have played their best football at home this year. Through 10 weeks they are 2-2, but more importantly 2-1 against the spread as a home underdog.
Expectations will be high for the Packers defense in this game given their recent performances, but Minnesota could steal that spotlight. The Vikings enter this game with 30 sacks already this season, tying them for 4th most in the league. They should have their hands full facing Aaron Rodgers, but they have faired well in the past. In the last six games played between these teams in Minnesota the record is split down the middle at 3-3, with a victor being decided by 9 points or less in four of those games. Go against the grain this weekend, take the Vikings as huge home underdogs, you shouldn’t be disappointed.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 1-6 against the spread as road favourites of 6-points or more
- 5-9 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
- 0-3 against the spread in games played on field turf this season
MINNESOTA
- 12-6 against the spread in all home games the last three seasons
- 22-11 against the spread when playing with 6 days of rest or less the last three seasons
- 8-2 against the spread versus an opponent off a double-digit straight up win
FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 27 – VIKINGS 23
AFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-13.5)
ODDS: BET365
The Indianapolis Colts (6-4) host their second game in as many weeks when they welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) into Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday. Jacksonville enters this divisional matchup with a repulsive 1-9 record, but could challenge Andrew Luck being fresh off their bye week. While the Colts will be looking for their seventh win this season, and forth straight against the Jaguars. Oddsmakers have listed the Colts as 13.5-point favourites for this game with a total set at 50.5-points.
Look for the Colts to have a bounce back performance this weekend. Jacksonville will be refreshed following their bye week but don’t be fooled they nowhere nearly capable of shutting down Andrew Luck and Indianapolis’s offense. The Colts bolster the best passing attack in the league averaging 334 yards per game and sit 3rd in scoring putting up 31 per game. Jacksonville’s defense is not nearly talented or proficient enough to slow down Luck’s scoring abilities. Entering this game they rank 30th in the league giving up 31 points per game on the road. If you choose to watch this game don’t blink twice, you’ll probably miss a couple touchdowns by Indianapolis.
Jacksonville has been awful all season, and in the gambling world have become nearly a guarantee to lose by double-digits on the road. In their six road games this season they are 0-6 and are losing by an average of 15 points. Considering only one of those losses came against a top five scoring team this season, Luck should blow the doors. The kid has lost only once in his career against Jacksonville and since then has been a perfect 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread, and has the Colts winning by an average margin of 23 points.
TRENDS
JACKSONVILLE
- 2-7 against the spread this season
- 5-9 against the spread when revenging a loss against an opponent the last three seasons
- 13-26 against the spread in all games the last three seasons
INDIANAPOLIS
- 8-0 against the spread versus division opponents the last two seasons
- 9-3 against the spread versus opponents with rest
- 8-1 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 10 – COLTS 34
NFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+7) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
ODDS: BET365
The Arizona Cardinals (9-1) begin a two game road trip this weekend when they travel to Seattle and take on the Seahawks (6-4). Seattle enters this game suffering their forth loss of the season, one more than their entire total of all last season. While the Cardinals find themselves the with the best record in the NFL at 9-1 and have won six straight. Oddsmakers have listed the defending champions Seahawks as 7-point favourites with an over/under of 41.5.
The Seahawks are reigning Superbowl Champions but you wouldn’t know it with how they have played this season. Its clear as day that this team is a shell of what they used to be, and simply don’t have the pieces in place to limit opposing teams like last season. While some of you might say Arizona is not the most prolific scoring team in the league, they are undeniably playing great football this season. While it might surprise some, they have actually been the best team in the NFC West since the midpoint of last season. Since week 8 of last year the Cardinals are 15-3. Nobody in the entire league has a better record across that same span.
While its easy to give an advantage to Seattle playing at home, I think 7-points is a little overboard for this game. This is an extremely important divisional matchup and how can anyone forget Arizona walked into Seattle last season and defeated them 17-10? The pieces are in place for another upset this weekend, don’t ignore the statistics showing the Cardinals have the better of the two defensive teams. They enter this game holding opponents to nearly 18 points per game and have allowed only one team to score more than 21 points against them this season (Denver). Seattle will need to put some big points up to win this game by more than 7-points, and thats just something I just don’t see happening. Expect a close match-up with victory being decided in the final minutes of the game.
TRENDS
ARIZONA
- 5-1 against the spread as an underdog this season
- 7-0 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
- 5-1 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins this season
- Coach Arians is 15-2-2 against the spread as an NFL coach versus sub .600 opponents
SEATTLE
- 1-8 against the spread at home in games 9-12 versus opponents off double-digit straight up against the spread wins
- 2-5 against the spread when playing with 6 days of rest or less this season
FINAL SCORE – CARDINALS 20 – SEAHAWKS 17