Week 12 NFL Picks 2013

• The Atlanta Falcons continue to struggle this year, they lost against Tampa Bay this past weekend and their record has worsened to 2-8. Not must positive to look at here for this team, the rank dead last in nearly every defensive category this season and have already begun wishing it was the 2014 season. 
• The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to improve their record and chances of making the playoffs. They have quietly gone 4-2 in their last 6 weeks and while they still sit three games back of Cincinnati they still have one more game against them this season. Don’t count Big Ben and this ancient Steelers defense out of it.  
• The Eagles beat down the Redskins and have won three straight rocketing to the top of the NFC East division. Not much convinces me that they will stay in this position, but it is hard to ignore how well they have been playing under Nick Foles. 
• The Cardinals are yet another team that has been flying under the radar. They are 5-2 in their last 7 weeks with their only losses come against division rivals Seattle and San Francisco. However, even with a 6-4 record they need to win out if they want a shot at the Lombardi trophy this season; the NFC West is once again the best division in football. 
  
• Cincinnati continued their rabid tear at home this season beating Cleveland 41-20. They are 5-0 at home this year now and have won their last two home games by three or more touchdowns.
• The New York Giants have won four straight and frankly I’m kicking myself that I didn’t bet money on them at 0-6 to make the playoffs. They have the best defensive team in the NFC East and with the Cowboys, Redskins and San Diego their next three opponents; winning seven straight isn’t out of the question. 
• Green Bay continues to struggle without Aaron Rodgers and lost their third straight this past weekend. Rodgers clearly makes or breaks the Packers playoff situation and his return couldn’t come sooner. The NFC North is one of the tightest divisions in football and they can’t afford to fall another game back of Chicago and Detroit. 
• The Broncos took down the Chiefs and proved who the real juggernaut in the AFC is. I’m not convinced it was 100% Denver’s offense but Kansas City’s lack of offense; either way it will be exciting when these teams square off again in two weeks.
• Quite possibly the best game of the weekend was monday night between the Patriots and Panthers. Carolina proved that they are a serious Super Bowl contender this year with a 6th consecutive victory. They have to face division rivals New Orleans twice down the stretch and whomever wins those games could decide who takes the NFC South title this year. 

• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite 
• 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win
• 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 road games
• 5-0 as favourites of less than 5 points versus an opponent off a straight up dog win  

• 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games overall
• 20-35 against the spread in a home game where the total is between 38.5-41 since 1992

NEW YORK JETS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3)


ODDS: BET365


The New York Jets (5-5) look to rebound this weekend after their second consecutive road shellacking and enter Baltimore to take on the 4-6 Ravens. The Ravens have dropped four of their last five and hope to turn things around in the first of a three game home stand. Oddsmakers have listed the Baltimore as 3-point favourites with a total set of 39 points.

Not much positive has been coming out of the woodworks for either of these franchises this season, but of the two Baltimore is on the up. The Ravens might have lost four of five games but three of lose losses were by 3-points or less. They have only one loss this season that was by more than 7 points (week 1 against Denver) which shows this team is much better than what their record actually shows.

New York has followed up every loss with this season with a victory, but I see otherwise this weekend. Geno Smith continues to struggle at quarterback, he hasn’t thrown a touchdown in three consecutive starts and across that same span has five interceptions. The only momentum that New York has been able to build on offense is through their running game the last couple weeks. But with Baltimore ranked 11th against the rush allowing 102.7 per game, it is lining up to be another difficult matchup for this Jets offense. If they can’t get it done offensively (which I suspect), this game will be solely on the shoulders of the Jets defense. Unfortunately this defence isn’t what they used to be, they are allowing an average of 33 points against per game when playing on the road this year; compared to 20 PPG when playing at home.

TRENDS 


NEW YORK 

• 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games in November
• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games versus the AFC
• 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games as a road underdog

BALTIMORE

• 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a favourite
• 24-11 against the spread as a home favourite between 3.5-7 points since 1992
• 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games
• 6-1-2 against the spread in their last 9 games in November

FINAL SCORE – JETS 16 – RAVENS 24 

AFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

 

SAN DEIGO CHARGERS (+4.5) VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 


One of the most storied rivalries in NFL history is set to kick-off sunday night when the New England Patriots (7-3) welcome the Denver Broncos (9-1) into Gillette Stadium. New England is looking to keep streak of 26 consecutive games without back-to-back losses intact while Peyton Manning looks to take down the Patriots for the first time wearing a Bronco’s uniform. Oddsmakers have listed Denver as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 54 points in this matchup.

This is Peyton Manning’s opportunity to get the monkey off his back and snap the two game losing streak Denver has against Tom Brady and the Patriots. The last time Manning defeated Brady was way back in 2009 when he was still an Indianapolis Colt. This time around not much is different except the fact Peyton is surrounded by the most talented offensive team in the league. Four players (Welker, Thomas, Moreno and Thomas) are top 10 in the league for touchdowns this year and while its hard to argue that Aqib Talib isn’t one of the best coverage guys in the league; he can’t cover all of Denvers offensive threats. The Broncos haven’t scored over 30 points in their last two weeks, look for them to have a big game this weekend. In Manning’s last 8 games against the Patriots his offense is averaging 29.8 points per game.

I love this matchup for one particular reason, it is Wes Welker’s return to New England. The Patriots made a serious mistake not paying him the money he deserved in the offseason; and it can be seen through their offensive totals this season. New England is averaging their lowest points per game (25.4) in their last six seasons and Brady is averaging the lowest yardage per completion in his career. Expect Welker to show Foxborough exactly what they are missing out on this season and have a huge game against his previous team. Bitter sweet victory for all those lifelong Welker fans in Massachusetts.

TRENDS

DENVER 

• 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games in november
• 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games versus the AFC 
• 10-4-1 against the spread in their last 15 games overall
• 7-1 road pick or favourite with revenge off straight up against the spread win