As we approach mid-november and week eleven the Arizona Cardinals remain the only one loss team in the league. While there are a handful of teams with only two losses…then there’s the Oakland Raiders with nine losses and zero wins. Apparently firing their head coach early in the season couldn’t help prevent the Raiders from their worst start in 52 years. Before I get ahead of myself, here’s a little roundup of last weekends action.
- The Browns beat up Cincinnati on Thursday night. They not only snapped their unbelievable 17 game road losing streak against divisional opponents but they are now first in the division with a 6-3 record. It looks like this team could have a legitimate shot at the playoffs this season. Whats more impressive is Brian Hoyer is 9-3 as the Browns starter. Big decisions with him becoming a UFA after this season. Either way, get used to it Cleveland fans, your team is good once again.
- The Lions improved to 7-2 on the season after yet another late forth quarter comeback. Detroit is looking like the team to beat in the NFC North this season but November should show their true colours. They play Arizona and New England on the road in the next two weeks. Tough games but if they are real contenders this year it could be the biggest two games of the season for them.
- Dallas beat up Jacksonville in London and nobody cares. Jacksonville is terrible, this game is nothing for Cowboys fans to pump their tires up over. Lucky both these teams enter their bye weeks and Romo gets to rest his fragile back. They are gonna need him when they face both the Giants and Eagles in week twelve and thirteen. Huge divisional games.
- The 49ers kept their playoff hopes alive by a thread defeating New Orleans in the Super Dome. I keep expecting Kaepernick to evolve into this Russell Wilson/Cam Newton hybrid but it doesn’t seem like it’s gonna happen. He had a relatively unblemished game but their defense forcing three turnovers is what won the game (most notably in overtime). It’s difficult to imagine the 49ers missing the postseason but this season could be it.
- New York finally won their second football game of the season. After Pittsburgh scored 124 points in three game they were held to only 13 and turned the ball over three times. Michael Vick looked like the 2004 Madden Vick, he had 2 touchdowns and 40 yards rushing and should lock down the starting job from here on out.
- Arizona won their fifth consecutive game but are losers in my eyes. Carson Palmer torn is ACL that in the forth quarter on a play which he wasn’t even touched. This pretty well cripples the Cardinals chances at winning the Super Bowl as I see it. Tough loss, and even worse for Palmer who for the second time in his career injured his knee the first game following a big contract extension.
- Seattle got back on track disposing of the Giants 38-17 at Century Link Field. They ran for a unbelievable 350 yards as a team and Marshawn Lynch destroyed my fantasy team with 4 touchdowns. It will be interesting to see were Pete Carroll leads them from here. As I see it, Seattle is still far from the bulletproof team we witnessed last season.
- Green Bay stomped Chicago 55-14 at Lambeau Field on Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers became only the second quarterback in NFL history to complete six touchdown passes before the first half. Yes, you read that correctly. The man had six touchdowns by half-time. It also marked the second consecutive game Chicago allowed over 50 points. Not many positive things are happening for the Bears right now. Missing the playoffs seems almost inevitable at 3-6 and a coaching change seems very plausible following the 2014 season.
- Mark Sanchez didn’t skip a beat stepping in as the Eagles quarterback. He lead them to a 45-21 victory on Monday night against Carolina. He had zero interceptions or butt fumbles and improved Philadelphia to 7-2 on the season and put them into sole possession of first place in the NFC East.
My week ten predictions came back a perfect 4-0. The Falcons had no issues covering 2.5-points in Tampa Bay, San Francisco got back into the win column in New Orleans as I expected. While the Lions had another come from behind victory and the Broncos smashed yet another spread by double-digits. Entering week eleven my record is 22-17-1! Hitting nearly 57% of my predictions and earning all you gamblers out there some coin! That’s if you’re crazy enough to ride with a guy that posts his picks for absolutely free! Lets keep this train rolling, here’s where the money should land this weekend.
AFC WEST VS NFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) VS ST. LOUIS RAMS
ODDS: BET365
The St. Louis Rams (3-6) are looking to turn their season around this weekend when the welcome the Denver Broncos (7-2) into Edward James Stadium. This marks the first home game in four weeks for the Rams, and they desperately need a win if they have any shot of making the post-season this year. As for the Broncos, they are back in cruise control fresh off their seventh win of the season and are looking to close out their three game road trip on a positive note. For this match-up Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as 9.5-point favourites with a total set of 50.5 points.
For those of you that read my blog on a weekly basis you might see a little trend beginning to form, I love the Broncos to cover! They are virtually unstoppable on offense averaging 32 points per game, are winning by an average of 10 points per outing and have a top five defense which is allowing a mere 314 total yards per game. Not to mention they have a fantastic record of 26-12 against the spread as a favourite the last three years! Considering this, I would be extremely surprised if you hammered Denver every week for the remainder of the year regardless of the spread and came out a loser. They are simply covering machines.
The Rams season is pretty much toast. It would be a statement if they could compete with Denver this weekend but I just don’t see that happening. Why you ask? Because Shaun Hill was officially listed as their starter this week. He simply isn’t capable of throwing multiple touchdowns against this Denver secondary, and thats what you need to compete. What he is capable of doing is throwing multiple interceptions. In 27 career starts he has 24 interceptions and has led a game winning drive only four times. With the Broncos entering this game averaging two turnovers in their last three games and over one interception per game this season, Hill should chalk up a couple costly mistakes in this one. Broncos cruise to yet another big win.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 4-1 against the spread as a favourite between 3.5-9.5 points this season
- 14-3 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
- 4-1 against the spread as a road favourite between 7.5-10 points the last three seasons
- 6-2 against the spread in weeks 10-13 the last three seasons
ST. LOUIS
- 3-5 against the spread as an underdog this season
- 2-9 against the spread at home coming off a divisional road game
- 0-11 against the spread off a double-digit against the spread loss facing an above .500 opponent with revenge
- 15-35 against the spread in november games
FINAL SCORE – BRONCOS 33 – RAMS 13
NFC WEST VS AFC WEST
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2)
ODDS: BET365
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) return home this weekend to host the defending Superbowl Champions Seattle Seahawks (6-3) in Arrowhead Stadium. Seattle has won three straight games after starting 3-3 and will be looking to earn only their third win on the road this season. While Kansas City has quietly become the hottest team in the NFL. They have won five straight and their last loss came way back in week five in San Francisco. Oddsmakers have listed the home-town Chiefs as 2-point favourites for this game, with the over/under set at 42.
Kansas City has been red hot the last couple weeks and its about time we cashed in on them. Seattle on paper might read “defending Super Bowl champions”, but their defense is a shell of what we saw last season. In 2013 the Seahawks finished with 28 interceptions; this season they are on pace for only 10, one third of last years total. While they are currently only +3 in turnover margin, a long shot from the +20 they found themselves at the end of last season. They have had several issues defensively this season but everything goes back to their middle linebacking core. The injuries have piled up for them and the result is they haven’t been able to get any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Through nine games this season they have only 12 sacks, ranking them 30th in the league. While Kansas City hasn’t been a juggernaut on offense this season, we can’t ignore the fact they are playing some great football right now; and the fact they demolished a very good New England team 41-14 in Arrowhead already this season.
Seattle gets their game going by running the ball, this is no secret. But something you may not know is Kansas City remains the only team in league to not surrender a rushing touchdown. Which tells me this is the perfect scenario for the Seahawks to regress; especially given their ridiculous running total last week. Look for the Chiefs defense to step up to the table. They currently sit 4th in the league with 28 sacks, 17 of which have come at home. Behind CenturyLink, Arrowhead may be the hardest stadium in the entire league to play in. In four games Kansas City has surrendered more than 14 points only once. Don’t neglect the fact Seattle is 0-3 in their last three games in Kansas City and the Chiefs are 10-0 straight up in their last ten games versus NFC West opponents.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 1-3 against the spread on the road this season
- 1-9 against the spread away with revenge off a double-digit win.
- 0-4 against the spread as non-conference road dogs of 5-points or less
KANSAS CITY
- 7-1-1 against the spread this season
- 9-1 against the spread in their last ten games versus NFC West opponents
- 30-14 against the spread in non-conference home games since 1992
FINAL SCORE – SEAHAWKS 13 – CHIEFS 20
NFC EAST VS NFC NORTH
PHILADELPHIA EAGES VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6)
ODDS: BET365
The Green Bay Packers (6-3) will look to stay undefeated at home this season when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles (6-3) into Lambeau Field this weekend. Philadelphia have won two straight and will be looking to duplicate their 27-13 victory in Green Bay last season to make it a third. While the Packers will be aiming for revenge and to build momentum on their blowout victory against the Bears last weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as 6-point home favourites with a total set of 54.5 points for this game.
Green Bay has been exceptional at home this season. Aaron Rodgers has thrown three or more touchdowns in every contest and has their offense averaging a remarkable 41 points per game. While the Eagles have a offense that can compete, I am expecting Mark Sanchez to struggle. He looked far to comfortable in his first start on Monday night while the Packers defense has quietly played some of their best games at home. They have allowed only one team to score more than 17 points this season and have been averaging over two takeaways per game. Two statistics that should be frightening considering Philadelphia boasts a 2-12 record when they score 20 points or less since the beginning of 2012; and find themselves leading the league averaging three turnovers per game away from home this season.
Philadelphia has one of the best offensive teams in the league, but many analysts overlook how heavily this team relies on their special teams and defense for points. Through nine games they are averaging an insane 7-points per game from defense and special teams combined. It has been helping them win football games; but they won’t be able to rely on it this weekend. The Packers simply don’t turn the ball over at home. They are tied for 3rd in the league with only 8 turnovers this season and are +1 in turnover margin per game at home. Before you place your bet on the Eagles consider this simple statistic. The Packers are a league best +25 in average scoring margin at home this season. Opponents haven’t been able to stay within three scores, never mind the 6-points Vegas expects of Philadelphia. Don’t be stupid, take the Packers.
TRENDS
PHILADELPHIA
- 2-8 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins the last three seasons
- 1-3 against the spread after playing on monday night football the last three seasons
- 4-9 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
GREEN BAY
- 15-2 against the spread when above .500 home favourites vs non-divisional opponents in weeks 9-12
- 3-0 against the spread as favourites between 3.5-9.5 points this season
- 9-5 against the spread versus a team with a winning record the last three season.
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 26 – PACKERS 38
AFC EAST VS AFC SOUTH
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3)
ODDS: BET365
The Indianapolis Colts (6-3) begin a three game home stand this weekend when they welcome the New England Patriots (7-2) into Lucas Oil Stadium. Nobody has been better than the Patriots the last couple weeks, they enter this game on a five game win streak and last lost in Kansas City in week four. As for the Colts, they are looking to build on a their three game home winning streak. Oddsmakers have listed the Colts as 3-point favourites for this game, with the over/under set at an absurd 57.5.
The Patriots are atop most of the NFL Power rankings right now but lets face the music, they simply aren’t as good on the road as they are at home. Both of their losses have come away from home this season and they face their toughest challenge all season in Indianapolis. The Colts bolster one of the best home defensive teams in the league. They enter this game 3rd allowing an average of 285 yards per game, 4th giving up 15 points per game, and 1st limiting their opponents time of possession to 21 minutes per game. I can tell you one thing for certain, Tom Brady won’t be able to work much magic if he is only able to get his mittens on the ball for 21 minutes in this game. With the Patriots entering this matchup averaging a astronomical 47 points per game in their last two, this is a perfect spot for regression. Expect them to chalk up their third loss on the road this season.
New England’s season has been thriving off a rejuvenated defensive core but they have had serious issues with penalties. They are one of the most penalized teams in the league away from home averaging nearly 9 per game for a league worst 88 yards. With numbers like this its no surprise they are giving up the 2nd most first downs due to penalties to their opponents at 3 per game. If they do this much damage to themselves this weekend it would be miraculous for them to stay within reach of the Colts. You simply can’t give penalty yards to Andrew Luck, he will hurt you for 7-points nearly every time. Expect the Colts to earn their first win against the Patriots in the Luck era.
TRENDS
NEW ENGLAND
- 1-5 against the spread versus opponents with rest
- 2-8 against the spread as non-divisional road dogs vs opponents off against the spread win of 14 or more points
- 0-4 against the spread away with the over/under set above 50 points against a conference opponent
- 3-4 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
INDIANAPOLIS
- 16-5 against the spread in home games the last three seasons
- 7-0 against the spread at home when playing a team with a winning record the last three seasons
- 9-2 against the spread versus opponents with rest
- 6-1 against the spread as favourites with rest
- 5-1 against the spread before facing Jacksonville
- 9-1 against the spread at home versus opponents above .650
FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 31 – COLTS 38