We have reached mid november and only seven weeks remain of the regular season. Week 10 was full of expectations and surprises; here is a couple things to take away from last weekend and the season thus far.
- The NFC east is once again shaping up to be the closest division in football. The Giants might have started 0-6 looking out of it but they have since won three straight and are right back in it. They are only two games back of Dallas for the divisional lead and it looks like this will once again become a race to the finish line for who takes home the playoff spot here.
- Jacksonville and Tampa Bay both finally won games! There is no longer a team in the league that is without a win. Unfortunately it looks like Detroit will be stuck for another year as the only team to complete a season at 0-16.
- St. Louis absolutely demolished the Colts in Indianapolis in what was the biggest surprise of the weekend. I can’t quite put my finger on Indy, they have beaten Seattle, San Francisco and Denver; but have losses against Miami, San Diego and St. Louis. It looks to be a crap shoot if your betting on them any given weekend on which squad decides to show up.
- Baltimore knocked off divisional rivals Cincinnati in an overtime thriller. A.J Green caught a high improbable hail mary touchdown catch to tie it up but the Ravens were able to close it out at home. If they knock off Chicago this weekend look for them to really catch steam as they face the Jets, Steelers and Vikings in the following weeks.
- Seattle flexed their NFC division leading strength in Atlanta against their division rival. I’m not sure whether it was the Seahawks playing a complete game or Atlanta was just that terrible. Either way, its looking more and more like Seattle is the beast to take down in the NFC. It even scarier to think Percy Harvin will be suiting up for them this weekend.
- The Cowboys got spanked on Sunday night football in New Orleans by the Saints. They lost their biggest defensive player in Sean Lee and allowed over 45 points for the second time this season. Just a note for some of you; no team that has allowed over 45 points twice in a season has ever gone on to make the playoffs that year….sorry all y’all Cowboys fans.
Finally! I have a perfect week and my record is quickly improving on the season. I posting a 7-1 record for the last two weeks of predictions; leading me to believe some of you might start taking my predictions into consideration! Through 10 weeks I’m posting a 17-19-1 record and have already crawled my way back close to .500. Lets see if I can stay hot, here is who I like this weekend.
AFC EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
NEW YORK JETS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-1)
ODDS: BET365
The Buffalo Bills (3-7) will get a chance at revenge this weekend as they welcome the New York Jets (5-4) to Ralph Wilson Stadium. New York knocked off Buffalo 27-20 in week 3 and could sit one game back of the Patriots with a win this sunday. As for the Bills, they have lost three straight and have a lot of work to do if they wish to finish with record above .500 for the first time since 2004. Oddsmakers have listed the Bills as 1-point favourites at home with a total set of points set at 40.5.
Not much luck has floated the way of Bills fans in the last couple seasons, but before getting injured in week 5 E.J Manuel looked like something special. He got the monkey off his back last week in his first game back, and I’m expect him and this Buffalo offense to have an explosive game. The last time Buffalo went on a three game skid was last season, they ended that losing streak beating this same Jets team in Ralph Wilson Stadium 28-9. A similar result this weekend wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
This game once again lies under what I am going to call the “Geno Smith Trend”. The Jets haven’t won back-to-back games all season long and Smith could be that cause. For every game he posts a reasonable quarterback rating, he follows up with a turd rating of 15 or lower; expect that trend to continue. In 9 starts this season he has thrown 8 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions, and faces a Buffalo secondary that leads the NFL with interceptions (13). Smith has lead the Jets to only one road victory all season long, don’t expect this weekend to become his second.
TRENDS
NEW YORK
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games played in November
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
BUFFALO
- 5-1 as divisional favourite versus opponent off a straight up dog win
- 5-0 with divisional revenge
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games versus the AFC East
- 11-4 against the spared in their last 15 games as a home favourite between 0.5-3 points
FINAL SCORE – JETS 17 – BILLS 26
NFC NORTH VS AFC NORTH
DETROIT LIONS (-1) VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS
ODDS: BET365
The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6) welcome the Detroit Lions (6-3) into Steel town for the first meeting between these two franchises since 2009. Pittsburgh enters winners in three of their last five outings while Detroit has won two straight and could widen their lead in the NFC North with a win this weekend. Oddsmakers have listed the Lions as 1-point road favourites with a total set of 47 points for this game.
The Detroit Lions are very appealing in this matchup for a couple different reason, with most obvious being Megatron. He is by far the best receiver in the entire league and even with Pittsburgh playing great against pass this season; Stafford is throwing the ball an average of 40 times per game. With those types of attempts I expect Megatron to beat his double or triple team at least once in this matchup.
Pittsburgh enters this weekend as one of the worst teams in the league versus the run, they are 29th overall giving up an average of 127 yards per game. I believe this stems directly from their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks this season. Through 11 weeks they have only 16 sacks and 5 interceptions; placing them near the bottom of the league in both these categories. With Detroit having given up only 10 sacks this year they officially bolster the best offensive line in football. Which should translate into Stafford having plenty of time to prance around the pocket before finding an open wideout downfield. Its simple, Lions win their third straight.
TRENDS
DETROIT
- 5-1 in their last 6 games versus Pittsburgh
- 11-4-3 against the spread in their last 18 road games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games after accumulating 350 total yards or more in their previous game
- 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record
PITTSBURGH
- 1-7 versus the NFC North
- 3-10-1 against the spread in their last 14 games following a straight up victory
- 1-6-3 against the spread in their last 10 games in week 11
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as an underdog
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 31 – STEELERS 17
AFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6)
ODDS: BET365
The Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) welcome the Cleveland Browns (4-5) into town for their second matchup this season. In week 4 we saw the Bengals get stuffed in Cleveland by the Browns 17-6. This time around Cleveland is fresh off their bye week, while the Bengals aim to prevent losing three straight. Oddsmakers have listed the home town Bengals as 5.5-point favourites with a total set of 42.5.
The Bengals have been stumbling as of late but are a lock to turn things around this weekend. Its been over century since they have lost back-to-back games against the Browns and that shouldn’t happen this weekend; Cleveland is posting a 1-3 record on the road this year. As for the Bengals they have been lights out this year at home. They are 4-0 on the season and have taken down the Steelers, Packers, Patriots and Jets in Cincinnati this year.
Cleveland is often considered one of the stronger defensive teams in the league, but their road game tells another story. In four road games this year they are allowing an average of 24 points per game and if they do that this weekend they can kiss their chances of winning this one goodbye; Cincinnati hasn’t lost a single game this year when scoring 24 or more.
TRENDS
BROWNS
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games versus teams with winning home records
- 1-4 as dog off a straight up dog win
- 2-5 straight up against the spread with rest versus opponents with a record above .570
CINCINNATI
- 6-0 as favourites of less than 10 points off a straight up favourite loss in weeks 9-12
- 11-4 straight up against the spread versus opponent off straight up against the spread win
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 home games
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 13 – BENGALS 24
NFC WEST VS AFC SOUTH
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-8.5) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
ODDS: BET365
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) will look to build momentum off their first win of the season this weekend when they welcome the Arizona Cardinals (5-4) into town. The Cardinals have won two straight and desperately need to continue that streak if they have any hopes of catching Seattle or San Francisco in their division. Oddsmakers have listed Arizona as 8.5-point favourites in Jacksonville with a total set of 41 points.
Don’t be fooled by the performance Jacksonville displayed in Tennessee last weekend, this is still the worst football club in the league. Their victory last week came off the hands of their defense after forcing one interception and five fumbles, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The Jaguars were given the ball on a silver platter all day in Tennessee’s territory, don’t expect the same result this weekend.
No team has been worse on their home field than the Jaguars this year. In 4 home games this year they are averaging a horrendous 5.25 points per game; this team can’t even score two field goals a home, never mind touchdowns. Its not a matter of “if” but when they fall behind in this game it will be all but over. Arizona’s defense ranks 3rd against the run giving up only 86.9 yards per game; while their secondary is tied for the second most interceptions in the league at 12.
The Jaguars are atrocious in several areas this year but quite possibly their biggest flaws sit at both their offensive and defensive lines. Offensively they rank 31st in the league averaging only 65 rushing yards per game, while defensively they are the absolute worst allowing teams to run for an average of 153 yards per game. With Andre Ellington averaging 104 yards per game in his last two outings; another 100 yard rushing performance doesn’t seem unlikely. Jaguars get smashed at home once again as the Cardinals defense keeps them in check all afternoon.
TRENDS
CARDINALS
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 trips east
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following an against the spread loss
- 5-1 against the spread versus a team with a losing record
JACKSONVILLE
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 home games
- 0-8 versus the AFC West
- 0-3 straight up and against the spread when off their first win of the season
- 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games overall
FINAL SCORE – ARIZONA 27 – JAGUARS 9