Week 11 NFL Picks 2012

• I’m going to call Week 10 the “Week of Concussions”; Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith all were forced to leave due to hard hits and concussion like symptoms. As it looks like right now Alex Smith is the only quarterback that isn’t ruled out to play this week. This is seriously going to hurt the Eagles and Bears, two teams that already struggle moving the ball down the field. 
• The Colts and Andrew Luck seem to be the real deal. They are 6-3 through 10 weeks and look like they are pushing for a wildcard position. If they can keep their game this weekend against a respectable Patriots team close expect rookie of the year chants. 
• Speaking of the Patriots, they should have lost last week to the Bills. I wish Ryan Fitzpatrick used his Harvard IQ to realize that throwing the ball straight into a Patriot defenders hands with no Bills wide receiver in sight was a bad idea. The Bills should have won this game. 
• Adrian Peterson is a lock in my books for comeback player of the year and MVP. This man has been in beast mode the last 4 weeks. He has rushed for 629 yards over that span; an average of 157 yards a week! He has also coupled that with 5 TD’s. If he continues doing this to teams he will reach that 2000 yard mark he told everyone he would. 
• The Falcons are no longer undefeated! The Saints did it, their defense stopped them on a 4th and 1 with no time left on the clock and Matt Ryan just couldn’t get it done. Could the Saints still make the playoffs? 
• Denver looks unstoppable. They have won 4 straight while scoring an average of 34 points a game and holding opponents to 18. I think everyone see’s them as serious contenders now. 
• The Seahawks are an unbelievable 5-0 against the spread at home this season. They have yet to lose on their home turf and if somehow they sneak past San Fran to steal home field advantage in the playoffs they could be very scary. 
• Nobody is putting up more points on offense than Tampa Bay in the last 6 weeks. They are averaging 35 points a game since their bye week and haven’t scored less than 28 across that span.  

This last week of football including the thursday night matchup my picks went 3-3. I’m 20-18 on the season and looking to improve that this weekend. Here are the games I like to turn that around; 

GAME 1 – AFC NORTH VS. AFC WEST

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-4.5) VS KANSAS CITY CHEIFS

In this game I like the Bengals to come into Kansas City and cover the -4.5 that the spread is set at. I feel like the Bengals are being underrated after having a couple disappointing weeks. They are 1-5 in their last 5 games against the spread and 4-5 overall the season. They are in the midst of turning things around coming off a big win at home against the Giants last week and I see them carrying that momentum into Kansas City. 

The quarterback/wide receiver duo of Andy Dalton and A.J Green is amongst the best in the league. These two have connected for 820 yards and 9 touchdowns already this season. The only game this season Green has been held without a touchdown was week 1 against Baltimore. This week the Chiefs secondary will have their hands full containing this man, they are allowing an average of 8.4 yards per completion good for second worst in the league only ahead of the Saints. Green who is averaging 14.1 yards per catch is going to eat up this secondary. I like him to explode for his 4th 100 yard game this season combined with his 2nd two touchdown performance. 

Now even though Kansas City is coming off a tough overtime loss against Pittsburgh last week I think Cincinnati is going to be a tougher game for them. Although the Bengals defense has only been mediocre this season compared to last year, they still have 7 interceptions are tied for 4th in league with 27 sacs and have forced 5 fumbles. I am sure they are licking their chops at the idea of this Chiefs offensive line that has given up 19 sacs on the year and 45 quarterback hits. The key to watch for in this game is how well the Kansas City banged up front 5 can protect Matt Castle from the blitzing play calls of the Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. It will be exciting to watch this game because for the first time Mike Zimmer is facing his son Adam Zimmer the Chiefs defensive assistant/assistant linebackers coach.

TRENDS 

CINCINNATI    

• 1-1 as road favourites this season
• 2-1 when playing on grass this season 
• 4-2 in their last 6 games playing Kansas City

• 1-4 off monday night game
• 1-3 at home this season
• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at home

GAME 2 – NFC SOUTH VS. AFC WEST

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS 

For the second week in a row I like the Saints to keep the ball moving and beat the Oakland Raiders at home by at least 6 points. New Orleans has been red hot the last 6 weeks going 4-2 overall and 5-1 against the spread in that span. They seem to have all cylinders firing and although there defense is still in the dumps of the league they are making plays when they need too. They made a huge play to win against the Falcons last week and even in Tampa Bay a couple weeks ago in the final seconds. This is game is going to be an absolute shootout and I like the Saints to put up more points that Oakland.

Drew Brees has never stopped playing like one of the best in the league, he is first in the league with 2847 yards throwing this season and is on pace for another pro bowl season. He has completed at least 1 touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games and I don’t think this Raiders secondary will be the first to stop that streak. The Raiders are allowing an average of 255 yards through the air each game and last week got torched by Joe Flacco for 341. Now don’t get me wrong Joe Flacco isn’t a terrible quarterback but he also isn’t any Drew Brees. If he can put up this many yards against this secondary I think Brees should have no trouble finding Colston and Graham in this game; I see him having his 3rd four touchdown performance this season. However the key to this game isn’t going to be how many point Brees can put up against the Raider defense but how many the Saints secondary gives to Carson Palmer. 

The Saints are still allowing an average over 300 yards passing a game too opposing quarterbacks and Carson isn’t far behind Brees with 2723 on the season. This will be the key matchup in this game. Palmer has created quite a connection with Denarius Moore the last couple weeks combining for 4 touchdowns the last 5 weeks. These two will need connect and have huge days if they hope to keep up with the scoring power the Saints offense has. Combine that with the fact that the last 2 games nobody has allowed more points than the Raiders defense (97 points). This game is looking more and more like an Oakland nightmare and a western style shootout. 

TRENDS 

NEW ORLEANS

• 5-2 straight up in their last 7 games playing in Oakland
• 23-12 against the spread over all games the last 2 seasons 

• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at home
• 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against New Orleans
• 28-63 when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992

GAME 3 – NFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) VS CAROLINA PANTHERS 

In the second divisional matchup this season between these two teams I like Tampa to improve to 2-0. They are the hottest offensive team in the league right now and no team has been able to hold them to less than 28 points since week 4. 

Carolina is going to have their hands full trying to contain this offense and specifically Doug Martin. He is 4th in the league at running back averaging 95 yards a game and although he was held in check last week against San Diego; the Chargers rush defense ranks 2nd in the league, Carolina is 16th in the same category. Minnesota ranks two spots better than the Panthers at 14th in stopping the rush and Martin ran all over then in week 8 for 135 yards and a touchdown. If Tampa Bay gets this guy going Carolina will have serious problems keeping it close. The Panthers rank 16th in defensive passing yards a game, expect gaps in the secondary to also be exposed by both Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams as the Panthers struggle to contain them.

The matchup to follow for this game is going to be Tampa Bays defensive line versus Carolina’s rushers. Cam Newton and DeAnglo Williams have a huge mountain to climb facing the top rushing defense in the NFL. The Buccaneers are only allowing a league leading average of 80 yards rushing a game. Everyone knows that the most common way Cam Newton gets this offense going is by rushing to pick up short yardage first downs and I see Tampa Bay limiting those on Sunday. They will have a quarterback spy on him all day, making it difficult for him to take off and forcing him into situations where he might turn the ball over. Something he will have to be careful of as the Buc’s secondary rank third in the league with 15 interceptions. Look for Tampa to expose Carolina’s weaknesses and for  them to just ahead early in this matchup. 

TRENDS

TAMPA BAY 

• 7-2 against the spread this season (tied for best in the league with Houston)
• 4-1 before Falcons (next week)
• 3-2 against the spread versus Carolina the last 3 seasons
• 49-38 against the spread in November since 1990

• 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at home
• 0-1 against Tampa Bay this season
• 1-9 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons
• 2-10 as divisional dogs of less than 7 points

GAME 4 – AFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS

In the first of two divisional games between these teams in the next 3 weeks I am taking the Ravens to cover -3. I really like this game for a couple of reasons.

I think that odds makers are being quite generous with the points, this spread in my eyes should be much bigger than 3 for one reason; The Steeler are without Ben Roethisberger. This man is the most important part of this offense. Without Big Ben the Steelers are forced to start good ole Byron Leftwich who hasn’t played significant time since being the Jaguars starting quarterback from 2003-2006. Last week after Roethisberger got injured he went a measly 7-14 with an average of 5 yards per completion; less than respectable against a below average Kansas City secondary. This week he is facing one of the premier defenses in the NFL, expect him to not only to be seeing black/blue and purple after this game but also feeling that way. 

The Ravens have 16 sacs on the season and although are missing their defensive leader Ray Lewis I don’t expect him to be missed as much this game. Once they get pressure on Leftwich I expect to see less than intelligent throws and the Ravens improving on their 10 interceptions already this season. 

If the Steelers defense can slow down Ray Rice and keep his carries to a minimum they might be able to keep this game close but I don’t see them doing that. Rice is one of the most versatile backs in the league and I like him to extend his touchdown streak to 3 games. If Rice is unable to find running room look for Torrey Smith too expose the fact that the Steelers are still without Troy Polumalu; they just aren’t the same secondary without him.

TRENDS

RAVENS

• 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games
• 4-1-1 against the spread in the division in 2011
• 3-2 against the spread versus Pittsburgh over the last 3 seasons
• 2-0 against the spread in their last 2 games  

   

PITTSBURGH

• 2-3-1 against the spread in their last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
• 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games in November