Week 10 had some interesting outcomes, we got the chance to see that the Bills might not be all they were cracked up to be after starting 5-2, while the Chicago Bears seem to be heating up with a 4-0 record in their last 4 weeks. With my picks last week I once again went 2-2 with my picks, my upset pick of Seattle beating Baltimore came through along with Houston once again beating the spread for a 4th week in a row. The Eagles disappointed me losing again at home for a second week in a row to an awful Arizona Cardinals team and the Lions looked like crap against the Bears at home. This week I’m looking to get things turned around and improve my record of 12-8 through 5 weeks. Week 11 has the Texans, Steelers, Colts and Saints all on bye weeks. Lets take a look this weeks spreads:
GAME 1
CAROLINA @ DETROIT (-7.5)
My first pick of the week is going to Detroit. I expect them to cover this 7.5 easily and redeem themselves after an extremely embarrassing outing last week in Chicago. Matthew Stafford had the worst game of his career throwing 4 interceptions, 3 of them returned for touchdowns. After this I expect him to regain confidence and be much more cautious with the ball against the Panthers. Carolina ranks 16th in pass defense while Detroit ranks 9th in passing offense. Expect this game to showcase a whole lot of throwing and not much rushing on the ground until Detroit solidifies a nice lead. Detroit ranks 4th overall in the league at stopping the pass, it is going to be a long and difficult day for Cam Newton to get things moving for Carolina. Look for him to have to use his legs often during this game if he wants to pick up those first downs.
Detroit’s offense will bounce back big-time this week, Calvin Johnson should have an easier day being targeted several times and producing good yardage along with his first touchdown since week 8. I also like Stafford to get both his tight ends much more involved in this game. The last two weeks they have been invisible; when combining with the fact Javid Best is still sidelined with a concussion it has made it difficult for Detroit to make those critical first downs. This means Brandon Pettigrew will find the endzone this week for his first score since week 6 and be an important factor in picking up first downs and keeping the chains moving for Detroit. The Lions are gonna be amped for this game and the home crowd is going to play a large part in getting Cam Newton and the Panthers off their game. This could turn out to be one of the best games on sunday.
FINAL – CAROLINA 20 – DETROIT 28
GAME 2
OAKLAND (-2.5) @ MINNESOTA
My second pick this week is for Minnesota to cover 2.5 at home this week against the AFC west leaders Oakland. Minnesota has had one of the more difficult schedules in the last 4 weeks playing GreenBay twice and Chicago once. Now I must confess that I am a vikings fan, but they are do for win. The last couple weeks Adrian Peterson has barely been visible because they have fallen behind early and have had to abandon the run in attempts to catch up. This game I expect to be the Adrian Peterson show, he will have a huge day against Oakland’s 25th ranked rush defense. I see him good for 2 TD’s on the day and and 150 yards scrimmage. An interesting figure is the Vikings rank 1st at home in rushing offense averaging a total of 177 yards a game. As for Oakland they are going to have a very difficult time doing what they do best…rushing the ball. The Vikings rank 6th in the league against the rush and should have no problem bottling up Michael Bush; with Darren McFadden still sidelined is really going to hurt the Raiders meaning Carson Palmer will be leaned on to expose the Vikings secondary in hopes of having his third straight week with at least 2 TD passes.
Jared Allen is the league leader in sacs at 13.5, and is going to be used heavily blitzing Carson Palmer all day long. If they can get to Palmer early and make him feel uncomfortable expect the turnovers to start to come. Although the Vikings do rank 30th in the league against the pass, Oakland ranks 31st against the pass while on the road this season. This should translate into Ponder spreading the ball around and finding his targets picking up first downs when Peterson isn’t doing so with his legs. I really like the Vikings to outright win this game and continue to keep that race in the AFC west close.
FINAL – RAIDERS 21 – VIKINGS 24
GAME 3
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5)
This game is gonna be San Fran all day long. Arizona got extremely lucky last week against a weak Eagles team on the road and I’m sure Kevin Kolb helped in large party being able to call out the Eagles offensive plays being the back-up in Philadelphia last year. This week the Cardinals will struggle all day to move the ball against the 49ners #1 rush defense. Arizona has relyed heavily on Beanie Wells giving him around 20 touches a game; with him questionable going into week 11 and Kevin Kolb on that same list, mark my words : ARIZONA WILL LOOK TERRIBLE THIS WEEK. This game is not gonna be even close, John Skeleton will not be able to move the ball against this tough defense and the 49ners will expose his inexperience converting turnovers.
Arizona ranks 28th against the rush on the road and expect this sunday to be no different. San Fran is a ground and pound team; with Frank Gore questionable going into sunday expect Kendall Hunter to get his fair share of touches. As for Alex Smith he has been a big surprise this year for the 49ners offense throwing for a league low 2 interceptions on the season showing he has been smart and done a great job controlling the ball this season. This game should be a walk in the park for Smith against Arizona’s 24th ranked secondary. The 49ners have won the last 4 contests between these two teams; expect that trend to continue this sunday.
FINAL SCORE – ARIZONA 10 – SAN FRANCISCO 24
GAME 4
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW YORK (-4.5)
For my last pick of the week I expect to see the New York Giants crush any playoff hopes that the Eagles may have left. All season long I have been on the so called “Dream Teams” side but not this week. With Michael Vick out this week due to a rib injury and their number one receiver, Jeremy Maclin in the same boat with shoulder and hamstring injuries; this should hamper the Eagles ability to move. Look for LeSean McCoy to be relied upon heavily in this game. The last meeting these two teams had in September The Giants owned the Eagles winning by 13 points in Philadelphia. To add to a troubled Eagles list of concerns, Eli Manning has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league the last couple weeks. He has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in the last 3 games and this sunday should be no different. Look for him to reach 300 yards with 3 TD’s on the day.
As for the Eagles, they were supposed to have the best secondary in all of football this year but that just never materialized. In the passing weeks we have learned that Asomugha is no Revis, and he can be exploited by the best receivers in the league. Look for Hakeem Nicks to do just that this week. He has been quiet as of late but I like this week to be a breakout candidate for him. He will get several looks from Eli and I see him finishing the day with over 100 yards receiving and 2 TD’s. Expect the Eagles to be extremely giving as usual and turn the ball over at least twice in this game allowing the Giants to take advantage, run up the score, and finish off any hope the Eagles have left of making the playoffs.
FINAL – PHILADELPHIA 17 – NEW YORK 31