WEEK 10 RESULTS & RECAPS
Last week my picks finished a combined 2-1. Bringing my overall record this year up to 7-2 on the season. There isn’t much room for margin when teasing NFL games, so the two losses hurt more than the record might show. Let’s take a look at how the games I picked turned out.
WIN – BUFFALO BILLS (+8.5) VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
This game definitely had the finish of the week. I’m sure by now we have all seen the “hail-murray” by Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with zero time left on the clock and three defenders draping all over him. Jump man just got some more perfect advertising material as the Jordan branded gloves rose higher above all the rest. That single play changed the outcome and left Bills +2.5 Pointspread backers in tears. But for those like us that teased the Bills up to 8.5 underdogs, it didn’t matter. There wasn’t a minute of this game that you had to sweat, the most Buffalo trailed in this game was by 3-points.
LOSS – BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Boy was I wrong about the Patriots. They came out and shut-down Baltimore. Lamar Jackson wasn’t able to get anything going all evening. This was in large part to two things, it felt like Lamar Jackson didn’t receive a good snap from the centre the entire game, and the torrential downpour that occurred in the 2nd half. Both this things greatly benefited the Patriots, and the final outcome displayed it.
WIN – MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS CHICAGO BEARS (+9)
This game was about as fun to watch as paint dry. If Chicago had absolutely any offense they would have won this game. While Minnesota had their defense step up in a big way to get Kirk Cousins his first win on Monday Night Football in 10 attempts. I’m starting to believe the only way Chicago will score points this season is through their special teams or defense. The only touchdown they scored was a kick-return, and the two field goals were courtesy of good field position from the defense or punt-return team. I think rock-bottom might just be a little further for the Bears.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-2) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
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6 POINT TEASE – HOUSTON TEXANS (+8)
The New England Patriots travel south to take on the Houston Texans this weekend in NRG Stadium. New England is now 4-5 after beating Baltimore and has locked up back-to-back victories. While the Texans as 2-7 are trying to turn things around this week.
This will be the second straight week I fade the Patriots. Good coaching only translates to so many victories, you still need quality players on the field to make plays and I have yet to believe Cam Newton is “back”. Entering this weekend Newton has only 3 passing touchdowns all season. Now, Houston does have one of the worst secondaries in the entire league, but that only matters if you aren’t able to get pressure. I think JJ. Watt is going to eat up the Patriots offensive line and when this game is over, you might be surprised with the defensive performance the Texans put forth.
The real reason I love this game is DeShaun Watson. The Patriots clearly have a coaching edge, but the more important quarterback edge sits with Houston. Watson is quietly putting together another great season under centre. He has the 6th best average quarterback rating out of all QB’s this season. Under him this offense is averaging over 7.9 yards per pass, 2nd best in this category. With the Patriots secondary allowing an average 8.2 yards per pass, 31st in the league, this is a mis-match in the making. I’ll happily tease the Texans up and over touchdown underdogs at home on Sunday. I don’t see a situation where the Patriots come in and win this game by more than one score.
FINAL SCORE – PATRIOTS 20 – TEXANS 28
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1.5)
6 POINT TEASE – PACKERS (+7.5)
Green Bay sits atop the NFC North, and looks to extend the divisional lead when they travel to Indianapolis and take on the Colts this Sunday. Indianapolis is tied with Tennessee for first place in the AFC South, and will desperately need a win to keep pace. This game could be the marquee matchup of the weekend.
Much of the talk around the Colts this season is Philip Rivers, his age and arm strength. I honestly don’t think he has looked that bad, and his average yards per pass of 7.4 ranks him 8th best in the league. With that being said, there is two reasons I backed Green Bay in this situation. Indianapolis has faced the weakest schedule in the NFL this season, and are terrible in 3rd down situations.
The Colts opponents this season – 1-7 Jaguars (Loss), 4-5 Vikings (Win), 0-9 Jets (Win), 5-4 Bears (Win), 6-3 Browns (Loss), 2-6-1 Bengals (Win), 4-5 Lions (Win), 6-3 Ravens (Loss) and 6-3 Titans (Win). The only legitimate win they have this season was last week over Tennessee, and as the season progresses it seems that might not even be that great of a victory. Green Bay has the first real threatening passing attack Indianapolis has faced all season. I’m expecting that is more than noticed on Sunday.
You wouldn’t know it with their record, but the Colts are converting only 37.50% of third downs, 30th in the NFL. I think if the Packers can get Rivers and this offense into third-down and long situations they return home victorious. Green Bay has allowed an average of 3.7 third-down conversions the last three weeks, 3rd fewest in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers always knows when to tell people to R-E-L-A-X. This season it hasn’t been a concern because they have been torching opponents. The only thing holding them back is injuries. DaVante Adams, Curtis Lazard, and Aaron Jones, these guys have all missed time this season. But it looks like they should all be suiting up this weekend. I think the talent behind Rodgers is greater than any team Indianapolis has seen this season. Packers win, and win easily.
FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 31 – COLTS 23
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8) VS LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
6-POINT TEASE – CHEIFS (-2)
We have this divisional matchup to look forward to on Sunday Night Football. In the first meeting this year, Las Vegas won 40-32. It was probably the biggest upset of the season as Kansas City was 10.5-point favourites in that game. Six weeks later, the Raiders are 6-3 and look like no joke. They might just be the biggest surprise of the NFL season. One thing stands out for me in this matchup – Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are coming off their bye week, and have had over two weeks to prepare for this rematch.
In 22 seasons as a coach, Andy Reid is 18-3 in the regular season after a bye, and 5-2 in the playoffs after a bye. One thing he does better than almost any other coach in the NFL is prepare his team off the bye. Just by looking at his record in these situations you could understand Reid doesn’t need much fuel to get his team prepared in these situations. But the Raiders have given Kansas City plenty of reasons to get-up and come out slinging on Sunday. First, the revenge aspect. Nobody that competes like Patrick Mahomes enjoys losing, and there will be an added level to revenge this week. After their week five loss against the Raiders at home, Jon Gruden decided it was a good idea for the Las Vegas buses to circle Arrowhead Stadium multiple times before taking off for the airport. If that doesn’t light a fire under your ass, then I don’t know what will.
It should come as no surprise that Kansas City is top-five in nearly every offensive statistical category coming into this game. They are #2 in each of the following – points per game, yards per game, 3rd down conversions and touchdowns per game. Las Vegas couldn’t stop them the first time around, they simple outscored them. In their first meeting the Raiders held the ball for 11 minutes longer than Kansas City, converted a 50% on 3rd down, and went 2-2 on 4th down. This propelled the Raiders to victory in their first meeting, I just don’t seem them accomplishing it back-to-back games. I love teasing the Chiefs down to 2-point favourites for this matchup, all you have to do is cheer for victory.