Week nine is officially a wrap. As we enter week ten of the regular season there is only one loss team remaining; the Arizona Cardinals. Entering the season I would have been surprised to see anyone predict this one. While the Broncos, Patriots, Eagles and Lions remain the only teams with two losses and 6-2 records or better. Incase you missed out on last weeks action, here’s a little roundup.
- The Saints lit up the Panthers at home on Thursday night. It marked their second consecutive victory but I can’t help but ask myself, what does this mean? The answer; Nothing. The NFC South is by far the worst division in football. With a 4-4 record they lead this division. Embarrassing considering the Browns, Bills, Chargers, Dolphins and Packers all have better records but find themselves outside of the playoff picture as of this week.
- The Cardinals solidified they are the team to beat in the NFC West with their handling of the Cowboys. They walked into Dallas and went down 10-0 only to come back and conceal the lead for the remainder of the game. Carson Palmer is playing like one of the best in the league right now. He has 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions since returning from injury and his making all the right decisions. While it doesn’t hurt that their defense might be the best in the league. Possibly SuperBowl dark horse? At 13/1 it doesn’t hurt to pony up, because you know if they make it they aren’t losing at home in Glendale.
- The Eagles bounced back handing Houston their second consecutive lose. Major headline in this game – Nick Foles leaves game with apparent shoulder injury and butt fumble Mark Sanchez steps in. Despite throwing two interceptions he lead the Eagles to a victory with two touchdowns and could be the face of Philadelphia going forward if Foles needs surgery. Not sure what that means for the NFC East. This division is literally still anyones for the taking, even the Redskins. Thats right, I said it.
- Miami thumped the Chargers 37-0 in SunLife Stadium. This was by far the biggest blowout of the weekend and extremely embarrassing for San Diego’s third straight loss. Could Miami actually make the playoffs for the first time since 2008? Facing the Lions and Broncos in two of the next three weeks should give us a great idea of where they stand.
- Most embarrassing loss of the day goes to the 49ERS. San Francisco had possession on the Rams 1 yard-line with 9 second left in the game. A quarterback sneak up the middle resulted in blotched snap and a Kaepernick fumble. I just can’t wrap my head around the fact a play that works nearly 95% of the time in that situation was mishandled so terribly. That play pretty much summed up the 49ERS season and Jim Harbaugh’s future following the 2014 season.
- Tom Brady once again proved his is far superior in head-to-head meetings against Peyton Manning. The Patriots took the lead and never once surrendered it all evening against the Broncos. They put up 43 points against Denver, the exact total scored in last years Superbowl against the Broncos. Making me believe the Patriots might be back for good, or maybe they never left? Either way, the Gronk/Brady connection is going to be a nightmare for teams going forward. It looks like Rob is finally healthy, he has 18 catches for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last two games. Pretty unstoppable numbers if you ask me.
- Ben Roethlisburgher became the first quarterback in history to throw for 12 touchdowns across a two game span. He completed another ridiculous 6 touchdowns against the Ravens on Sunday Night and is quietly hushing all the Pittsburgh doubters; including myself. Not many offensive teams look better than the Steelers right now. They have scored an absurd 124 points in their last three games and have one of the few true #1 running backs in the league. Facing the Jets and Titans the next two weeks we should see Pittsburgh sitting at 8-3 entering their bye week.
- Indianapolis swept the floor with New York on Monday Night winning 40-24. It marked the third time this season the Colts have scored over 40 points. Andrew Luck looks unstoppable in only his third pro-season with 26 touchdowns already and at this pace would beat Peyton Manning’s single season passing record of 5,477 yards. It’s not hard to see if Luck can stay healthy he will at some point in his career re-write every single important quarterback record there is.
NFC SOUTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
ODDS: BET365
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) return home this weekend to take on division rivals Atlanta (2-6) at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers enter this game on a three game losing streak and with yet another loss would undoubtedly be outside the playoff picture this season. While the Falcons are looking to get back to winning ways themselves; they have lost have lost five in a row and should be fresh for this one coming off their bye week. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Falcons as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 46 points.
The last time these teams squared off was week three in Atlanta. For those of you that have forgotten the Falcons absolutely demolished the Buccaneers scoring 56 points, the most by any team in a single game this season. It also marks the last time the Falcons won a game this season. I figure, what better way for them to get back into the win column than against a team they already defeated this season. Matt Ryan and this Falcons squad is better than their record of 2-6 represents. They are 8th in the league averaging over 375 total yards per game, and rank 3rd in red zone touchdown percentage at 76% this season. They have not struggled in scoring this season, but on the defensive side of the ball. Teams have seemingly scored at will on the Falcons secondary this season but don’t expect the Buccaneers to do that this weekend. Tampa Bay has one of the worst offense’s in the league. They are averaging a mere 19 points per game this season and can accredit these issues to their inability to convert important third downs. They are averaging only 4 third down conversions this season, ranking them 31st in the league ahead of only Tennessee. While the Flacons defense has been less than spectacular this season, they should have no problem putting in a successful outing against a offense as weak as the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay just hasn’t been losing games this season, they have been getting blown out. Their opponents are averaging a preposterous 30 points per game this season. It’s impossible to win games when you’re giving up that many points. Not to mention they are also near the bottom of the league averaging nearly 11 points less than their opponents per game this season. This game is juicy with Atlanta only favoured by 3-points. It has bounce back game stamped all over it.
TREND
ATLANTA
- Favourite is 6-1-1 against the spread in the last 8 meetings between these two teams
- 2-0 against the spread versus divisional opponents this season
- 3-0 straight up the last three seasons coming off their bye week
- 15-7 straight up in the last three seasons as a favourite
- 6-12 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last three seasons
- 3-11 against the spread in home games against conference opponents the last three seasons
- 1-6 against the spread versus conference opponents with below .333 records
The streaking New Orleans Saints (4-4) welcome the San Francisco 49ers (4-4) into the Mercedes-Benz Superbowl this weekend. After a dismal 2-4 start the Saints have turned on the jets and won their last two, defeating both Carolina and Green Bay. While the 49ers are flying the opposite direction, they are losers of two straight and desperately need a win to stay in playoff contention inside a difficult NFC West division. Oddsmakers have listed the Saints as 5.5-point home favourites with a total of 49 points for this match-up.
Oddsmakers are off their rockers if they think the Saints are capable of winning this game by more than five points. I’m well aware that things are not all bright and happy in the 49ERS locker room following two terrible losses. But ask yourself, are the Saints really that good? I can’t seem to find a scenario that results in the conclusion of “yes they are”. New Orleans finds themselves in by far the worst division in football. Everyone combined, the NFC South has only 10 wins. I’m far from convinced that the 4-4 record of New Orleans is better than that of San Francisco. The 49ers have had a terribly difficult schedule to this point. They have faced Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia and Denver just to name a few. Their opponents combine for a 36-22 record this season and only two have losing records this season! As for the Saints, only half of their opponents are above .500 and they combine for a 33-34-1 record. There is no denying that the 49ers have played much tougher opposition this year, something that should most definitely prepare them for a touch game inside the Super Dome.
New Orleans has been clicking offensively the last two weeks and in turn have found their stride. But before we get ahead of ourselves, lets remember they have faced the Panthers and Packers; two teams that sit 25th and 26th giving up an unpleasant average of 378 and 379 yards per game. San Francisco might not be the perennial defensive powerhouse they were the last couple seasons; but they are still good. They enter this game holding opposing offense’s to an average of 57 plays per game, something that this Saints offense relies upon. New Orleans is currently averaging 70 plays per game, 2nd most in the league. Combine that with the fact the 49ERS are holding opponents to an average total of 291 yards per game, 2nd best in the league; Drew Brees and this Saints offense will face their toughest task all season. Three of the last four match-ups between these teams have been decided by 4 points or less, this weekend should be no different.
TRENDS
SAN FRANCISCO
- 15-1 against the spread off a straight up favourite loss
- 7-3 against the spread in Dome games the last three seasons
- 3-0 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last three seasons
- 5-2 against the spread versus NFC South division opponents the last three seasons
- 0-11 against the spread off a double-digit straight up win versus opponent off back-to-back straight up losses
- 2-4 against the spread versus NFC West opponents the last three seasons
- 0-2 against the spread versus San Francisco the last two seasons
FINAL SCORE – 49ERS 26 – SAINTS 23
NFC NORTH VS AFC EAST
MAIMI DOLPHINS VS DETROIT LIONS (-2.5)
ODDS: BET365
The Detroit Lions (6-2) are set to play their first home game since week 7 when they welcome the Miami Dolphins (5-3) into Ford Field this weekend. Detroit has had almost two weeks to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. While the Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the league as of late winners of three straight. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Lions as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 42.5 points.
I already see it, people are lining up to ride the Dolphins bandwagon. Miami has won three straight games by two scores or more. They have been playing some great football but we also have to consider who and where they played. Two of their last three wins have come against Chicago and Jacksonville, teams that sit on the bottom of their perspective divisions and combine for only 4 wins as opposed to 11 losses. Now I’m not saying it is easy to win three games in a row, what I’m trying to say is Miami hasn’t played a team of Detroit’s calibre on the road this season. The closest opponent was Buffalo in week two, and they got blown out 29-10. This will be their first real road test all season and I’m not convinced they will be able to contain the Lions offense. Detroit is welcoming back Megatron for his first game since week five which gives Matthew Stafford another big target to throw the ball towards. Golden Tate has been the savour of the Lions offense since Johnson went down with injury, it should be interesting to see what both of them on the field simultaneously can accomplish. Miami has been great defensively this season but they also haven’t faced an offensive team as potent as the Lions.
Keep your eyes locked on Detroit’s defense, they have been winning games for them all season long and this weekend should be no different. They enter this game giving up an average of 290 total yards and 15.8 points per game, the lowest total in both these categories in the entire league. They have given up more than 14 points at home only once this season and have one of the best run defense’s in the league. This should become a problem for Miami with how heavily they rely on the run game to get their offense going. Keep your eyes peeled on Ndamukong Suh and Dolphins right guard Mike Pouncey, this match-up could decide the game. If Suh gets loose then Detroit should have no troubles shutting down Miami’s offense. Take the Lions by a field-goal at home with confidence.
TRENDS
MAIMI
- 1-6 against the spread away off back-to-back straight up wins versus above .700 opponents
- 2-4 straight up when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last three seasons
- 69-113 straight up when listed as an underdog since 1992
- 7-1 against the spread with rest versus above .500 opponents
- 2-0 against the spread when playing with two weeks of rest or more the last three seasons
- 4-2 against the spread in games played on turf this season
DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS
ODDS: BET365
The Oakland Raiders (0-8) aim to get their first win of the 2014 regular season when they welcome the Denver Broncos (6-2) into the Coliseum. Nothing has seemed to be floating Oakland’s way this season with speculation swirling this team could go winless the entire season. While the Broncos enter this game looking to bounce back from a tough loss in New England. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting Broncos as 10.5-point road favourites with a total set of 50 points.
Oakland has been historically terrible this season. They are riding their longest losing streak since 2006 and lets be honest, beating Denver this weekend seems virtually impossible. The Broncos are fresh off their biggest loss this season and should have a big bounce back game here. They are averaging nearly 30 points per game this season and have been largely unstoppable all season. With Oakland giving up an average of 28 points per game at home this season, Peyton throwing for another 4 touchdown passes and 400 yards doesn’t seem unlikely. The Raiders don’t have nearly the defensive playmakers to slow down the Broncos offense. They are averaging only one sack per game this season and everyone knows giving Peyton Manning to much time in the pocket is a recipe for disaster. This is not a good looking match-up for Oakland to earn their first victory this season. As for the Raiders offense, they have not been much better. Through eight games they are 31st in the league scoring an average of 16 points per game this season. But the red lining here is the turnover margin. They are -10 this season and Rookie Derek Carr has only two games without a interception or fumble this year. Watch Denver to eat this kid alive, they are averaging an interception per game this year and are 7th in the league with 24 sacks.
It’s never a good thing when you have to face Peyton Manning immediately after a loss. In the last three seasons following a loss Denver is 8-1 and are outscoring opponents by an average of 17 points. The last time Denver faced Oakland immediately following a loss was in 2011, they blew the doors off winning 37-6. If there is one thing I am certain of this weekend, it is that Denver will win this football game by at least 11 points. Don’t get down on them from last weekends performance, Manning is great in bounce back games.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 4-0 against the spread in their last four games against Oakland
- 7-0 against the spread in 2nd of back-to-back road games
- 13-3 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons
- 14-1 straight up against conference opponents the last three seasons
- 3-11 against the spread when playing with 6 days of rest or less the last three seasons
- 6-12 against the spread in all home games the last three seasons
- 0-8 against the spread before facing the Chargers