Before looking ahead to my week 10 predictions I’d like to take a minute as usual and reflect on some of the games last weekend. Here is what I enjoyed about week 9 and more importantly what it could mean for the second half of the season;
- Cincinnati failed to win their fifth straight in Miami on thursday night. Cameron Wake sacked Andy Dalton in the endzone in overtime for the game winning two points. This marks only the third time in history a game was decided in overtime by a safety. Miami could easily win their second in a row against Tampa this monday.
- The struggles in Atlanta continue; they allowed 34 points against Carolina this past weekend and need to start seriously questioning the strength of their defense and play calling. As they welcome Seattle to town this weekend it doesn’t look like things are going to get easier for the secondary anytime soon.
- In the biggest shocker of the weekend New Orleans was taken down a notch in New York. The Jets took this task handily and intercepted Drew Brees twice. Don’t think in a million years I would have predicted that outcome of that matchup, especially with how New Orleans has looked this year.
- Kansas City improved to 9-0 thanks to a 4th quarter defensive fumble recovery for a touchdown. Buffalo kept this game close and were winning throughout most of it, but it turned into yet another case of the Chiefs defense winning the game. Now they have a week to prepare for Peyton and the Denver Broncos.
- Nick Foles tied an NFL record throwing for 7 touchdowns against Oakland….say what!? The Eagles were high flying last weekend, I knew the Chip Kelly offense was due for a big game. Philly could do some damage down the stretch starting with Green Bay this weekend. This game initially opened at Packers -7 but when it became news Rodgers would be out, the line slipped to -1.5. Could turn out to be one of the better games this weekend.
- Tampa Bay shocked the universe when they were up 24-3 against the Seahawks in Seattle. But once again Russell Wilson showed his poise and orchestrated a 4th quarter comeback to tie the game and won it in overtime. Confirming Seattle is one of the elite teams in the league, whichever situation they find themselves in, winning is never out of question.
- The Patriots put up 50 points for the first time this season. Brady had 4 touchdowns as they torched the Steelers secondary and won their 2nd straight. They enter their bye week but have some preparing to due as they face Carolina, Denver and Houston in weeks 11-13.
- The Colts comeback to win in Houston on sunday night was yet another shocker. The Texans were up 24-3 at one point and have been one of the most consistent teams when playing at home the last two seasons. Andrew Luck improved the Colts record to 6-2, I figure it’s about time that we start considering Indianapolis as Super Bowl contenders this season.
- The Bears took down the Packers in Green Bay on monday in the leagues most historically documented rivalry. Of course I attribute this victory 100% to the fact Aaron Rodgers left after only one drive and Chicago’s defense was able to handle Seneca Wallace, no surprise there. Fortunately for Packers fans they face Philadelphia, New York and Minnesota in the coming weeks.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5) VS ATLANTA FALCONS
ODDS: BET365
This marks the first meeting between these two teams since last years divisional playoff round when Atlanta beat Seattle 30-28. This time around it is Seattle with the upper hand, they are off to their best start in franchise history and have won four straight. As for the Falcons they are nowhere near their stature of last season, they have lost back-to-back games and are lightyears out of a playoff position. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as 5-point favourites for this rematch with a total set of 45 points.
Not much points towards the Falcons turning their season around this year. Teams continue to find gaping holes in their secondary and they are quickly become one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They now rank 27th in league giving up an average of 27.2 points per game and we have to go way back to Week 17 last season for the last time they held an opponent under 20 points. But not all blame can be placed on the defense; Matt Ryan has played terrible the last couple weeks. He has 7 interceptions in their last two games and will have to tighten up his play calling and decision making if things are expected to get any better; Seattle is tied 1st in the league with 13 defensive interceptions. Looks to me like Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner will have ample opportunities to catch passes in this weekend.
I fully expect the Seahawks to run a clinic on the Falcons defense this weekend; literally. Atlanta is allowing teams to run for an average of 4.5 yards a carry this season and in the last two weeks they have given up 332 total yards rushing. With Seattle entering this matchup ranked 5th in league rushing for 147 yards a game, Marshawn Lynch is almost a guarantee to gain 100 yards a touchdown on sunday.
Not much makes me lean toward a team more than the revenge factor. I can guarantee Pete Carroll has been reminding his team all week how about how Atlanta was the team that ended their season last year. So much motivation and determination will be behind the Seahawks this sunday, it seems almost impossible to imagine the Falcons winning this game.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 4-0 as non divisional road favourites of more than 6 points
- 8-4 away versus NFC south opponents
- 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games following an against the spread loss
- 13-5 against the spread in their last 15 games following a straight up win
- 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 road games
- 0-15 as underdogs of 3 points or more after back-to-back road games
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following an against the spread loss
- 1-5 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games as an underdog
Many terrible things can be said about Giants football this year. They stunk up the field starting 0-6 for the first time since the 1976 team, but since have gone 2-0. Somehow though I feel oddsmakers are a little anxious to make this questionable Giants team 7-point favourites in this one. Lets not forget their two victories have come off the hands of Minnesota and Philadelphia, teams that combine for a 5-12 record this season.
Oakland enters this game ranking 6th in the league against the rush giving up 94.6 yards per game on the ground. With the running back carousel continuing in New York I see this as major strength for Oakland in this game. Without a running game Eli won’t be able to use play action and find Cruz or Nicks open downfield. Pointing towards this becoming yet another game where Manning spends a lot of time on his back, or passing the ball to the wrong team. No quarterback in the league has more interceptions than Eli this season, and no team a worse turnover margin than the Giants.
Terrell Pryor will be the real difference maker in this matchup. He has looks brilliant at times this season and looks to be in for a big day this weekend. The Giants have historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks and Pryor is leading the league for quarterbacks who have 25 or more carries this season averaging 7.7 yards per carry. Look for a bounce back performance from the Raiders this weekend.
TRENDS
OAKLAND
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up loss
- 5-0 in their last 5 games following an against the spread loss
- 10-4-1 as dogs of 7 points the last two years
- 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games in week 10
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games in november
- 0-8-1 as favourites in first of back-to-back road games
- 0-7 at home after allowing less than 7 points
- 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games after allowing 150 yards rushing or more in the previous game
- 3-8-2 against the spread in their last 13 games versus the NFC North
- 0-6 as divisional road favourites
- 5-2-1 in their last 8 games versus Cincinnati
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games
- 6-0 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
If Chicago has any chance of keeping this game close they will have to tighten up their 3rd down defense. This season they are one of the worst in the league allowing teams to convert 41% of the time on 3rd down. With the Lions entering this game converting 3rd downs 42% of the time, it could be a long day for the Bears defense. My prediction for this game wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the likes of Megatron. He is fresh off a week resting his injuries and had the biggest performance of his career posting 329 yards and 14 catches against Dallas in week 8. Expect another incredible statistical outing from him this weekend; propelling Detroit to the unprecedented NFC North division leaders.
TRENDS
DETROIT
- 6-1 with rest versus opponents with an above .600 record
- 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
- 4-1 against the spread versus Chicago over the last three season
- 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a favourite
- 0-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games
- 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games versus the NFC
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win