Week 10 NFL Picks 2012

Doug Martin getting chased down by a Oakland defender

•  The Lions won consecutive games for the first time this season. In their last 4 games they are 3-1 and even better 4-0 against the spread in this span. I really like them to ride into Minnesota this weekend and prey on the snake bitten Vikings. 
• Chicago’s defense might be the best the league has seen in the last 10 years. To this point in the season the Bears have scored 7 TD’s on defense! They are almost racking up one a game and are only 5 short of Kansas City’s touchdown total on offense. This defense is scary good and face their first real test this weekend against Houston, followed by San Francisco. This weekend we are going to see how good this defense really is and whether the Bears are real contenders or just pretenders. 
• The Packers are heating up. They are on a 4 game winnings steak and Aaron Rodgers is looking like the all-star quarterback he always was. They won each of their last 4 by at least a touchdown and are entering their bye week. It couldn’t have come at a better time, their two best receivers Nelson and Jennings are injured and need time to rest in hopes of playing week 11. This will be a team to follow the next coming weeks. I like them to catch up to the Bears in the division, the week 15 matchup may have more meaning than people think.
• Once again the Seahawks find another way to win at home. Russell Wilson really isn’t that spectacular but the way this defense plays at home is a whole other story. They are 4-0 at home this year and 4-0 against the spread at home. This is impressive considering the teams they have faced include Dallas, Green Bay, New England and Minnesota. This team has the best secondary in football when playing at home.
• Tampa Bay has a real special thing with the likes of Doug Martin. Over the last 3 games this kid has 6 TD’s, 137 yards receiving and 471 yards rushing. He had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders on sunday and threw his hat into the rookie of the year debate. If he continues this way for the rest of the season Tampa Bay is going to be a tough team to beat and looks like they have gotten a steal selecting him late in the first round. 
• The Eagles looked terrible as usual. Just when we thought maybe a comeback was in store to start the 2nd half of the monday night game they go and turn the ball over again and fail to covert redzone opportunities into 6 points. There is serious isssues in Philadelphia, fans want answers and someone is going to lose their job unless things turn around real fast. Michael Vick and Andy Reid aren’t just playing for the playoffs anymore, they are playing for their jobs. This weekend against Dallas is a tough place to start this. Both these team’s risk not making the playoffs if they lose and fall to 3-6. Yet another nail biter to look forward to sunday. 

ATLANTA FALCONS  VS  NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+3) 

The first prediction I am making this sunday is for the Saints to ruin the Falcons undefeated season and improve to 4-5 on the year. This is a bold prediction because of how well Atlanta has been playing this year but everybody knows that all good things must come to an end. The 2008 New England Patriots unfortunately had to wait until the Superbowl for that to happen. This sunday I like the Saints to pull out all the stops and ruin Atlanta’s hope of an undefeated season.

The Saints played a good game this past monday in Philadelphia and I expect the momentum to be carried over into this game against the Falcons. Drew Brees is having another career year, it has been the injuries and defense that have hurt this talented team. Jimmy Graham missed 2 games because of an ankle injury but has looked like he recovered fine and since getting back has at least 6 catches, 60 yards and a TD in both games played. I like for him to have a huge day against the Falcons secondary on Sunday. He is poised to explode soon, we haven’t see him with a multi touchdown game all season; look for this Sunday to be his first.

The second matchup that I like is for the Saints secondary to step up their game and slow down the Falcons high powered offense. Although they do rank in the bottom of the league in pass defense, I believe this game is a different story. The Saints see this game as their most important game all season. The outcome could very likely mean the difference in making the playoffs or missing out. I’m sure this is how the players have been looking at it all week and know how extremely important this game for this franchise. While for the Falcons it is simply another chance to put a notch in the win column. This is as close as it gets to a playoff game for the Saints and they will be playing in this game like it is the playoffs; this is the reason why I like the Saints to cover 3 points this weekend and hand the Falcons their first loss. Saints come out desperate and want the win more than the Falcons, here are some trends between these two;

TRENDS

NEW ORLEANS

• 11-2 as dogs or favourites of more than 3 points
• 6-0 against the spread when playing at home against teams with winning records in the last 2 years 
• 8-1 against the spread in home games against conference opponents the last 2 seasons 
• 13-3 against the spread when playing in a dome over the last 2 seasons 

DETROIT LIONS (-3) VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS 


The second game I like this weekend is the Lions to continue their win streak and beat the Vikings up at home. It hurts to say it but Detroit has been red hot the last 2 weeks and the Vikings are beginning to slide down the division with losses in 3 of their last 4. I am a Vikings fan at heart but find it hard to see them winning on sunday for a couple reasons.

Firstly, Percy Harvin isn’t playing. He has been their best offensive weapon all season. He is Christian Ponder’s most targeted and trusted wide receiver and a focal point of this team. Last week as soon as he got injured you could immediately tell the Vikings offense was struggling. They failed to do much and eventually lost the game because they were unable to complete passes on third downs. Without Harvin in the starting lineup they will be relying heavily on Adrian Peterson’s legs and we saw last week that even if he puts up 150 yards rushing and a touchdown the Vikings can still lose. Keep track of the how the Lions 8th ranked pass defense shuts down this ailing Vikings receiving corps.

The second reason I really like this game is because of another Vikings player. Christian Ponder has been terrible the last 4 weeks and hasn’t thrown for more than one touchdown in each of those games. He has a passer rating of 82 and people are starting to question if he is the starting man for this team. We have seen flashes of brilliance from him but don’t expect to see that this weekend. During this game he is going to struggle to get anything going. If the Vikings have a shot at winning this game they are going to need some luck and probably a special teams/defensive touchdown too keep up. The Lions are playing with revenge after they got embarrassed at home in week 4 against the Vikings. Here are some trends;

TRENDS

DETROIT

• 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games
• 3-1 in their last 4 games  

MINNESOTA

• 0-9 as division dogs of less than 7 points vs opponent off back-to-back straight up wins 
• 1 division win in the last 2 years

NEW YORK JETS (+7) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

For this game I feel pretty confident that the Jets will cover the 7 points they are given, but if it comes back to bite me in the ass I would’t be surprised. It seems every time I bet the Jets to cover they get blown out and every time I pick them to win they get smoked. I have a good feeling about them this weekend.

The Jets are fresh off their bye week, primed and ready for this Seahawks team. They are one of the many teams that are 3-5 after 9 weeks of football and every game from here on is important in hopes of making the post-season. Most of the games they have played this season have been close and could have gone either way. They lost against New England by a field goal in overtime 2 weeks ago and only lost by 6 in Houston earlier this season. Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie during their bye weeks said that they WILL make the playoffs. When I heard this it made me giggle; they are seriously going to have to pick his game up their game if they have a chance of completing that.

The major reason I really like this game is I don’t believe there has ever been a more important game in the coaching career of Rex Ryan. Recently he was named one of the most over rated coaches in the NFL. If we want to see him on the Jets sideline for much longer they have to win this game, and although they may not win I am positive they will keep it closer than a touchdown. They have had almost two weeks to devise a plan to break down this Seahawks team and I think Rex Ryan has an ace up his sleeve for this one. Look for both teams to run the ball for much of this game as they both rank in the top 10 for defensive passing. This game will be a nail biter up until the final buzzer, look for a last second field goal to define a winner. Lets take a look at some trends;

TRENDS

NEW YORK

• 5-3 against the spread this season            

SEATTLE

• 0-5 as favourite under Pete Carroll off back-to-back straight up against the spread wins

HOUSTON TEXANS (+1.5) VS CHICAGO BEARS


In what should be the best game this weekend I am putting all my marbles on the Houston Texans. Both these teams are neck and neck when in comparison. The Texans rank 3rd in overall defense while Chicago is not far behind at 6th. 


Once you start comparing them further it is scary how similar these teams are. The Texans average 29.6 points a game good for second place in the league. As for the Bears, they rank 3rd with 29.5 points a game. They put up identical totals but I have to give this matchup too the Texans on one basis. They have one of the best defensive lines in the league and the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. J.J Watt has been terrorizing quarterbacks since the start of this season. He leads the league in sacs at 10.5 and I think will be the difference maker in this game. Chicago will have their hands full with him as they have allowed 28 sacs this season. This will be the major matchup to watch in this game and whoever wins this battle I expect wins the game. On all other levels these two teams matchup identical. They both have only lost one game this season and that loss for both teams came at the hands of the same team; the Green Bay Packers. Although Chicago has had what some would call an easy schedule, this week they face a real test and we get to see if they can compete with the best in the league. On a side note I really like Arian Foster to have another huge day and continue his TD streak to 6 games. 

Another reason I am particularly fond of Houston in this game is they do a great job at holding onto the ball and not turning it over. They are +8 when looking at their turnover margin this year. That is great and good for 6th best in the league, however the Bears lead the league in this category with a whopping +16. Looking at this total many of the games the Bears have won this year came due too defensive and special teams points. I just don’t see Houston turning the ball over on Sunday, meaning the Bears won’t have those points to rely on. Ultimately placing the world on Jay Culter’s shoulders and expecting him to find a way to put points up against one of the best defensive teams in football. Look for him to struggle as both these teams battle it out on sunday night making for one of the best football games all weekend. Here are some trends to make note of;

TRENDS

HOUSTON