Week 10 is already upon us people. We are over halfway through the season and we have seen the beginning of thursday night football this week. Last week my picks went 2-2 as the patriots got upset at home against the Giants in a game that looked just like the Superbowl upset a couple years ago and GreenBay only won by 7 in San Diego when the spread was -7.5. That .5 made the difference for San Diego to cover last week and proved costly to my pick. Sometimes it means you either win or lose, showing just how close and good the linemaker’s are at making it as close to the final score as possible.
Going into week 10 I am posting a 10-6 record and I’m looking for my picks this week to turn things around and give me my first week above .500 since week 6. This week we have no teams on bye and there is gonna be a lot of action come tomorrow for all you football fanatics to enjoy a sunday full of action.
Here are this weeks spreads given by PointSpread:
Arizona @ Philadelphia (-14)
Jacksonville (-3.5) @ Indianapolis
Denver @ Kansas City (-3.5)
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati
Buffalo @ Dallas (-5.5)
New Orleans (-1.5) @ Atlanta
St. Louis @ Cleveland (-2.5)
Washington @ Miami (-4.5)
Houston (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay
Tennessee @ Carolina (-3.5)
Baltimore (-7.5) @ Seattle
Detroit @ Chicago (-2.5)
New York Giants @ San Francisco (-3)
New England @ New York Jets (-1.5)
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-13.5)
GAME 1
HOUSTON (-4.5) @ TAMPA BAY
For my first pick of the week I’m rolling with a team that has won 3 straight and has been hot as of late even without their top wideout Andre Johnson. Houston has been rolling over their opponents in their last 3 games putting up 95 points in their last 3 games, while giving up only 33 points across that span defensively. They are now the top rated defense in the league ahead of both Baltimore and Pittsburgh giving up an average of 274 total yards a game. This team has been hot and I have no reason to believe why this streak isn’t going to continue when they enter Tampa Bay on sunday. Houston is averaging a total of 26 points a contest, look for them this week to easily reach that total and surpass it. Tampa Bay has been extremely streaky this season, they either come to play and keep the game close or don’t show up and get blown out. They have not blown out a team this season and each win they have recorded this year has been by 7 points or less.
In this game I’m looking for Arian Foster to have another huge day with over 150 yards from scrimmage and at least 2 touchdowns. He is going to be the workhorse in this game along with Brandon Tate. These guys are once again going to control Houston’s 3rd ranked rushing offense. When comparing this to Tampa Bay’s 26th ranked rush defense it doesn’t add up well for the Buc’s. If they want to keep this game close at all they are going to have to discover a way to stop this tandem, which I don’t see them doing. Houston is going to be blitzing hard all day at Josh Freeman looking to add to their 24 sacs on the year, good for 4th in the league. Freeman has an injured right thumb and although he will play this could play a big part in the game when Houston applies pressure and forces him to throw into their 2nd ranked pass defense. If they can get their way with Tampa Bay’s offense line I don’t see this game being a game at all. Its gonna be Houston all day long and the Arian Foster show for a 3rd straight week. One word – BlowOut
FINAL – HOUSTON 37 – TAMPA BAY 10
GAME 2
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA (-14)
My Second pick this week is Philly to cover this large 14 points at home against the cardinals. This is another must win for Philly if they hope to keep the playoff dreams alive and I think they will do it in high-flying fashion. Arizona has the 28th ranked pass defense in the league, while Philly ranks 9th in passing on offense. They are going to exploit Arizona’s terrible secondary all day long, look for Vick to have a huge day with at least 3 passing TDs. If Arizona’s awful defense isn’t enough then how about their offense. Kevin Kolb has been less than spectacular this year and it looks as though he won’t even be playing this weekend. He has turf toe which can be one of the most bothersome injuries to football players and it seems that John Skeleton will get the nod on sunday. Although Arizona squeezed out a win last week in overtime over St. Louis….we need to remember that was St. Louis and they were losing for majority of the game.
If Skeleton starts which I think he will the eagles secondary will have no problem covering Fitzgerald and picking him off at least twice in this game. Expect to see LeSean McCoy to run for over 100 yards in this game again and keep his streak of 5 games in a row with at least 1 TD going. The Arizona defense isn’t going to know what to do, they won’t be able to stop the run or the pass, and given they do make a solid effort at doing both of these, Vick will just pick up the 1st down’s with his legs. To add to the cardinals problems the Eagles have won 3 out of the last 4 meets between these teams by an average of 22 points. This game should be no different with a sunny day expected in Philadelphia. The Eagles will control the ball and the clock majority of this game and bounce back in a big way after a failed attempt to beat the Bears last monday.
FINAL SCORE – Cardinals 12 – Eagles 35
GAME 3
DETROIT @ CHICAGO (-2.5)
My third pick this week is for the Lions to step into Chicago and upset the Bears. Chicago has been 3-0 in their last 3 weeks playing but I expect the Lion’s to cool them off and give the Bears their first loss since week 5. Who beat them in week 5 you ask? Look no further than their opponent this sunday. The Lions beat the Bears in their last outing on monday of week 5, 24-13. I expect this game to not be any different except a change in home teams. The keys to the Lions pulling out an upset will be to stop Matt Forte from running for first down’s, and put lots of pressure on Jay Cutler to make him feel uncomfortable from the very first snap of the game. The Lions have the 6th ranked pass defense in the league and if they can sack Cutler a couple times early we all know what happens. He makes bad decisions and throw’s the ball right into the hands of defenders. An interesting statistic to look at is Detroit when on the road their passing offense ranks 6th in the league while at home Chicago’s pass defense ranks 29th in the league. They have been noticeably worse at home this year at stopping the pass.
As I have already outlined the Lions must pressure Cutler if they plan to win this game. When he gets sacked early and often he is a totally different player and makes aweful choices. I attribute the Bears last 3 wins to their opponents failure at pressuring Cutler. In the last 3 games he has been sacked at total of only 4 times, last week Philly didn’t even get to him once! This is why the Bears are winning, and it will be critical that Ndamukong Sue makes his presence known early to Culter. If they can’t do this they will lose the game, but I can already see Detroit blitzing early and often in this game and doing what they need to do to and pull out a win away from home. Look for Matt Stafford to find Calvin Johnson several times during this game, and we see Megatron’s first two touchdown game since week 4 against the Cowboys. Look for the Lions will win outright in this game and upset the Bears at home.
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 21 – BEARS 17
GAME 4
BALTIMORE (-7.5) @ SEATTLE
My last pick for this week is an interesting one but I feel there is enough evidence if you look at the stats that say Seattle will cover this game and possibly even upset with a win this week. Firstly Seattle is one of the best teams all time in the NFL when playing at home. They play much better on home turf at CenturyLink Field and this stadium has the reputation as one of the toughest stadiums to play in around the NFL. Seattle has a home record of 48-27 at CenturyLink field, or about .640. This makes Seattle one of the toughest teams to play on their home field and I don’t see this sunday being any different. Yes the Seahawks are posting a poor 2-6 record this year but none the less Baltimore has a record this year of winning by field goals.
Seattle has the 13th ranked rush defense in the league and the ravens when on the road this year their rushing ranks 29th in the league. Everyone remembers what happened week 7 against the Jaguars when Baltimore couldn’t move the ball all game, I expect this game to be similar and closer than what people expect. Joe Flacco is gonna need a lot of help from Ray Rice during this game and if Seattle can limit his touches I believe they have a legitimate chance at winning this game. Baltimore is banged up in the secondary with both Terrell Suggs an Ed Reed hampered with injuries, giving room for Marshawn Lynch to keep his streak of 4 games with a TD going. This game is going to come down to which team’s Defense performs better. Seattle may be in the worst division in the NFL but I really like them to keep this game close and difficult for Flacco to get the offense going. Upset City folks
FINAL – BALTIMORE 17 – SEATTLE 20