Its back baby; the NFL season is finally here. Its been 214 days since Peyton Manning crumbled under pressure in Superbowl XLVIII and we watched the Seattle Seahawks become world champions in one of the most convincing Superbowl victories of the last decade. While many people were surprised, those of you reading my blog shouldn’t have been since, this guy predicted a Seattle victory.
Looking back on 2013; my NFL predictions went an abysmal 37-34-5 last season. Less than spectacular, but combine that with my lifetime record of 75-60-8 and I am in pretty good shape. Not to mention I nailed the three biggest games of the 2013 season finishing 3-0. (NFC and AFC conference championships and Superbowl winners).
Before jumping right into the meat & potatoes of who I’m riding this sunday, I’ve decided to analyze some 2014 future bets. These bets should tickle your fancy if you decided to let it ride into the new year.
Most Valuable Player
AARON RODGERS – 7/1
ODDS: BET365
This is a no brainer, tons of value in this bet. Rodgers spent much of last season on the sideline with a broken collarbone and is reaching the golden age of his career where quarterbacks reach their ceiling. He has a healthy Randle Cobb to complete passes to and the next elite running back in the league according to most experts in Eddie Lacey. If Rodgers can play a complete 16 games, 50 touchdowns and 4,500 yards isn’t out question as he enters the prime of his career.
Regular Season Touchdown Leader
DEZ BRYANT – 15/1
ODDS: BET365
Lets get one thing straight, the Cowboys are going to be terrible this year; and by terrible I mean terrible defensively. They let Demarcus Ware walk over to the Broncos during the off-season. While their best defensive player and captain Sean Lee suffer a season ending ACL-tear for the third time in opening days of training camp. Coincidentally this means they are going to be giving up a lot of points this season, meaning they will need throw the ball a lot to stay in games. Leading me to believe Dez Bryant will be looked to early and often to keep them in games. He finished third in touchdowns last season behind only Demaryius Thomas and Jimmy Graham and should see an increase in his redzone targets (21) as Jason Witten continues to age and their number two receiver is still relatively unproven. I’m expecting the biggest year of Bryant’s career in 2014.
Regular Season Wins
CHICAGO BEARS – OVER 8.5
ODDS: BET365
The NFC North might be one of the toughest divisions in football this year, (behind only the NFC West) but the Chicago bears are built to last. They seriously upgraded their defense in the off-season signing Jared Allen and Lamar Houston. While first round selection Kyle Fuller is being touted as one of the best younger cornerbacks entering the league. Combine all this with the fact their offense is possibly the most explosive in the entire league including the likes of Forte, Jeffery, and Marshall. This team is poised to make a post-season run and prove doubters wrong by clinching the NFC North title.
NFC NORTH VS NFC WEST
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+6) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
ODDS: BET365
Kicking off the 2014 NFL season we see the defending Superbowl champs welcome the Green Bay Packers into Century Link Stadium. Seattle had arguably the biggest home field advantage in all of football last season and their record shows it losing only one game. But if anyone can challenge this tough defense it’s the Packers. They are finally healthy on all fronts and poised to make a push deep into the playoffs this year. Don’t blink because this matchup could very well be a preview of the NFC conference championship game. Soak in every minute of it, this game has the makings to be a doozy. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Seahawks as 6-point favourites with an total set of 46.5 points.
Don’t get me wrong, I am full of respect for the defending Superbowl champs. They very well have the best defensive team in all of football again but for them to repeat a season like they did last year would be nothing short of miraculous. They finished +22 in turnover margin and cruised defense to victory in several games (including the Superbowl). Enter Aaron Rogers, he is entering the prime of his career and has arguably the best offensive team surrounding him since becoming the Packers starting Quarterback. If anyone can break down Seattle’s secondary it is this team, and that’s just what I am banking on to happen on opening night.
Lest we forget the shamble that happened last time these teams met at Century Link Field. The Packers should have won the game leading 12-7 in the 4th quarter, but had victory snatched from their hands on a blown “touchdown” call by the replacement referee’s that should have been an interception. There is no doubt in my mind that Mike McCarthy and this Green Bay team haven’t forgotten the result of that game; and there is nothing I like more than a team riding revenge and a chance to prove themselves.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 8-2 in their last 10 road games
SEATTLE
- 17-20 versus NFC North opponents since 1992
- 21-29 against the spread as favourites between 3.5-7 points since 1992
FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 27 – SEAHAWKS 26
NFC NORTH VS NFC WEST
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+4) VS ST. LOUIS RAMS
ODDS: BET365
The Minnesota Vikings open their 2014 season against the St. Louis Rams in Edward Jones Dome. Both these teams missed the playoffs last season but not due to a lack of talent. The Rams play in the toughest division in all of football and the Vikings had one of the hardest schedules in the entire league. When this spread was initially released three weeks ago the Rams were listed as 6-point favourites. But since the Rams have lost Sam Bradford to a season ending ACL tear, leading Oddsmakers to change the line to St. Louis by 4-points, and a set of 43.5 points.
Not many teams improved more this off-season than the Vikings. They added depth on defense by drafting Anthony Barr and signing former Panther Cornerback Captain Munnerlyn, while free safety Harrison Smith enters this season healthy after missing 8 games last year. They were atrocious last year allowing the most touchdowns by any defensive team but I think people are under-estimating the potential this team has. Mike Zimmer is a great new coach for this squad and extremely defensive minded, while offensive coordinator Norv Turner helped turn Josh Gordon into all-star last year. I expect him to do the same with Cordarrelle Patterson this season.
The Rams and their fans alike are still reeling from the loss of Sam Bradford for the year. Without him in the lineup all their hopes and dreams of competing in the NFC West drifts down the pooper. Shaun Hill is the farthest thing from a savour for this offense and it should cut extra deep since even with Bradford for most of last season the Rams still averaged less than 200 yards through the air per game (27th overall). This team relied heavily on the wheels of Zac Stacy last season and while most people are high on him this year I see regression happening. Teams have film on him now, they had an entire off-season to study, and he is their only real offensive threat (until Tavon Austion learns to catch a ball of course). Take the Vikings and the generous 4-points with confidence this weekend.
TRENDS
MINNESOTA
- 15-9 against the spread when an underdog the last 3 seasons
- 12-6 against the spread in dome games the last 3 seasons
ST. LOIUS
- 0-2 against the spread when a favourite between 3.5-7 points the last 3 seasons
- 1-4 straight up against NFC North opponents the last 3 seasons
FINAL SCORE – VIKINGS 24 – RAMS 20
AFC EAST VS NFC NORTH
BUFFALO BILLS VS CHICAGO BEARS (-7)
ODDS: BET365
The Chicago Bears kick off their 2014 season at Soldier Field this weekend when they welcome the Buffalo Bills to town. Chicago barely missed the playoffs last season after faulting down the stretch, while the Bills were out of contention mid-season after an abysmal 3-7 start. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Bears as 7-point favourites with an over/under set at 47.
As I’ve already mentioned, Chicago is poised to have a breakout season. They had some of the best off-season acquisitions in the league and Buffalo will be the first road kill of the season. The Bills pride themselves on running the ball. They were the 2nd best team in the league last year running an combined average of 144 yards per game. C.J Spiller and Fred Jackson are possibly the best tandem in the league, and they need to get it going early in this matchup if the Bills hope to keep it close. Statistically that shouldn’t be an issue, Chicago allowed the most rushing yards per game last year at 161 yards. But the key additions of Lamar Houston and Jared Allen should improve those numbers. Jared Allen lead the Vikings 8th best rushing defense last year while Lamar Houston adds youth and versatility to their pass rush. Expect Chicago to do a much better job at containing Spiller and Jackson that what is expected, and look for the Bills to rely on the pass to keep them in this game early in the second half.
Chicago has so many weapons on offense its going to be impossible for the Bills to stop all of them. Buffalo has relied heavily on turnovers to keep them in football games last season, (23, 2nd in the league) but don’t expect that this year. They lost one of their best defensive players in Jarius Byrd (4 interceptions) to the Saints in the off-season. This should open it up over the top for both Marshall and Jeffery to have fantastic outings to start the 2014 season. Bears win big at home, as the Bills start the season the same place they finished last year, with a loss.
TRENDS
BUFFALO
- 5-11 against the spread in road games across the last 3 seasons
- 2-6 against the spread in non-conference games the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO
- 5-2 against the spread in non-conference games the last 3 seasons
- 11-0 as 3.5-9.5 point favourites in the last 3 seasons
- 4-2 straight up in their last 6 games playing Buffalo
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 17 – BEARS 41
NFC EAST – AFC SOUTH
WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS HOUSTON TEXANS (-3)
ODDS: BET365
The Houston Texans are looking to start off 2014 on the right foot when they welcome the Washington Redskins into Reliant Stadium this weekend. Houston has lost 14 straight regular season games and were the worst team in the NFL last season with a 2-14 record. I expect them to vastly improve on that record this year and it begins week one with their first win in nearly a year. Oddsmakers have listed the Texans as 3-point favourites with a total set of 45-points for this matchup.
Not many teams wish to forget the 2013 NFL season as much as the Texans. They went from perennial Superbowl contenders to the dumps of the league. But even with a 2-14 record last year there is still some good to take away. They lost 9 games by a touchdown or less, 5 by a field goal or less, and some of these were against playoff teams like Seattle, Indianapolis and New England. Turn to 2014 and Houston has a new face in coaching, (Bill O’Brien) and they landed the most althetic and talented player in the 2014 draft in Jadeveon Clowney. Plus we can’t forget they already have the best defensive player in the league with J.J Watt. Don’t get down on these Texans, everything points towards a bounce back year.
Expect Washington to have a tough outing in their first game of the season. RG III still looks like he hasn’t learned how to baseball slide, and last season they relied heavily on a passing attack to get them through. Something that won’t be as affective as some might think against Houston, (even with the addition of DeSean Jackson) the Texans finished 3rd last season against the pass limiting opponents to fewer than 200 yards per game. Not to mention the Redskins were one of the worst teams on the road in 2013 winning only one game and giving up an average of 29 points per outing.
TRENDS
WASHINGTON
- 3-5 against the spread in September games their last 3 seasons
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against the spread
HOUSTON
- 6-2 straight up in their last 2 seasons in September
FINAL SCORE – REDSKINS 19 – TEXANS 30