The 2013 NFL season is finally here! I finished the regular season off last year with a 38-26-3 record, picking winners nearly 60% of the time! Lets see if I can build upon that record this season. But before I dive into the games I like this upcoming weekend, here are a couple juicy 2013/2014 NFL future bets I like this year. It’s hard to mistake the value in these bets, or the possibility they could become realty when we roll into the new year.
AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPION
CINCINNATI BENGALS – 10/1
The Bengals have all the pieces in order to be a serious contender this year. Several analysts have them winning the AFC North, I like them to win the entire AFC and make the Superbowl. Dalton and Green are entering their 3rd seasons and already have two years playoff experience under their belts. They re-signed defensive tackle Geno Atkins to a multi-year deal, locking up what some would call the best interior lineman in all of football. This team is mature beyond their years, I expect big things from the Bengals this year, you should too.
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5)
ODDS: BET365
Not only does this game identify the beginning of the 2013 season, but it gives the Broncos a rematch against the team that handed them their toughest defeat all last season. I can tell you this much, I haven’t forgotten about the Hail Mary completion Flacco made to Jacoby Jones with 30 seconds left. In my eyes that play won the Ravens the Superbowl, while at the same time handing the Broncos defeat. I guarantee everyone on this Bronco team had sleepless nights over that play and the couple seconds within which it developed; and if there is one thing I like in the betting world, it is a team playing with revenge.
Denver starts the season heavily favoured to win the Superbowl this season. What better way to start the season than by defeating the defending champs. Now don’t get me wrong, Baltimore has historically had one of the greatest defences’ in the last decade but that period is coming to an end. The loss of Ed Reed to the Texans and Ray Lewis to retirement marks the beginning of a new era, one that won’t begin so peachy. While I am excited to see Elvis Dumervill suit up in a Ravens uniform, and fully expect him to get at least one lick on Manning in the game. Denver has just to many offensive weapons.
The outcome of this game would have been drastically different had the defending champs been given home field advantage. But the sad reality is that the Baltimore Orioles refused to change one home series around, thus the Raven’s home opener and Superbowl celebration party will be held on the road. Unfortunately, Ray Lewis is no longer around to lay the smack down on the dumb ass who refused to change the Oriole’s schedule.
TRENDS
BRONCOS
- 4-1 against the spread as a favorite in their last 5 games
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 thursday games
- 13-7 against the spread since 1980 in their first game of the season at home
- 6-2 agains the spread as a home favourite during the 2012 season
- 10-3 against the spread when playing as a favourite last season
- 5-9-1 against the spread as an underdog in the first game of the season
- 1-5 against the spread as an underdog of 7 points or more
- 1-4 straight up in their last 5 thursday night games
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) VS CHICAGO BEARS
ODDS: BET365
Upon first glance I believed oddsmakers had accurately predicted the point spread in this matchup. But upon further research and review all indication is pointing towards the wrong team being favoured by 3 points.
As I already mentioned Cincinnati is a great sleeper pick to win the AFC conference this year and maybe even the Lombardi Trophy. Both Andy Dalton and A.J Green are entering their 3rd seasons and I think the best from both these players is yet to come. Dalton is the only quarterback in NFL history to make the playoffs in his first two seasons while completing at least 20 touchdowns each year. While we have seen Green amass over 1000 yards in each of his first two seasons. Something that neither Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson were able to accomplish. Going to show you just how special these two guys are together.
Now I’m sure several of you are saying, “But what about Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler?”. My answer to that is, “But what about Chicago’s offensive line?”. The Bears offensive line has been god awful the last three years! They have given up 149 sacs since the beginning of the 2011 season, or about 3 sacs per game on Cutler. Now as much as I do expect improvement this season from their line; I don’t expect them in the first game of the season under rookie CFL coach Mark Trestman. But more specifically, I don’t expect them to because the Bengals defensive unit has been top 5 in sacs the last two seasons, averaging at least 3 per game.
TRENDS
BENGALS
- 7-1 straight up and against the spread record run before their playoff loss in Houston last season
- 14-7-1 against non-divison teams the last two years
- 10-1-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as road underdog of 0.5-3
- 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games in September
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as a favourite between 0.5-3
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home favourite
- 0-7-1 against the spread record before playing Minnesota
- 2-6 against the spread record to end the 2012 season
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+4.5) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
- 17-7-1 against the spread in their last 25 games as a road underdog
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 5 first games of the season
- 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games versus NFC opponents
- 19-6 in their last 25 games as underdogs
- 9-12 as a favourite in their last 21 games to start the regular season
- 15-6-2 against the spread in their last 23 games versus AFC opponents
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games in september
- 16-8-1 straight up in the last two years as favourites
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 week 1 games of the season
- 2-6 straight up in their last 8 games at home