Week 1 NFL Picks 2012

posted in: 2012 NFL Picks | 0

2012 winter has long past; spring was shortly lived and the summer is coming to a close. While most people are saddened by shorter days and colder temperatures, there is freaks out there who couldn’t love it more. Not because they enjoy seeing others suffer from seasonal depression or driving home at 430pm in the dark; but because sunday has importance again, football is back!

This past NFL off-season was full of major headlines and news stories that were over analyzed and critiqued by sports enthusiasts and journalists everywhere. Will Peyton Manning succeed in Denver? Can he be his usual self after 4 neck surgeries and adjust to playing home in an outdoor stadium for the first time in his career? How will the Saints bounty scandal along with the absence of Sean Payton affect one of the most potent offences in the league? Can Vincent Jackson be a top 10 receiver in Tampa Bay with a second grade quarterback throwing him the ball? But most importantly, how will the replacement referee situation play out? For all of these questions there will be answers tomorrow at 1pm when the NFL kicks off the 2012 season!  
This season I will be making my weekly predictions on both the teams I believe will beat the spread as favourites, or cover them as the underdog. Lets take a look at 4 games tomorrow, how I see them playing out and why.

GAME 1

     


INDIANAPOLIS  COLTS VS CHICAGO BEARS (-10)


The first game I choose to go with on week one showcases one of the most hyped rookies Andrew Luck against the always strong new look Chicago Bears. In this game I like Chicago to beat this spread at home and show rookie quarterback how big of a step it is from college ball to the NFL. These two teams haven’t met since opening day in 2008 when indy hosted the bears. That game turned out 29-13 bears and don’t forget that Peyton was under center for that game, not some rookie. Chicago has gone 3-1 in their last 4 years on opening day and i expect them to improve this record this year much like they improved this team in the offseason. The Bears went out and picked up two major offensive weapons to add to their depth and take some the load off Matt Forte; their names? Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall. These guys were in my opinion the best offensive additions any team made this offseason and will prove every dollar was well spent. We can’t forget how Michael Bush carried the workload in Oakland last year when Darren McFadden went down to injury and did a fantastic job with 977 rushing yards and 7 TD’s. This guy is the best goal-line back in NFL and will complement Forte perfectly all year long. As for Brandon Marshall how can we forget when him and Cutler hooked up in Denver when they spent time together. They have history and for the first time in years Marshall will have an actual quarterback to throw him the ball. His 2011 totals of 81 Rec, 1214 yards and 6 TD will easily be improved upon this season. In Marshall, Cutler finally has a receiver he can throw the ball too, and actually trust him to come down with it. I expect a huge game tomorrow out of him with somewhere around 120 yards and at least 1 TD. 
If the colts have any chance to keep this game close they will have to shut down Marshall and the Colts offensive line will have to protect their most important man on offense, Andrew Luck. I think Indy will have a hard time moving the chains, a rookie quarterback against one of the strongest defensive teams in the last couple seasons will make for a Chicago blowout. This game won’t be close, the Bears will take control defensively and it was transition over into offensive scores. If that doesn’t convince you look at the stats; last year the Bears went 5-0 when favourites in the spread in their first 10 games. As for Indy? They went 0-2 in their first 2 games as dogs in the spread.
FINAL SCORE – COLTS 13 – BEARS 34


GAME 2





ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS


The second game I went with this week is the Falcons at the Chiefs at 1pm on sunday. I like this game a lot because it will showcase the return of one of the deadliest running-backs in the league in 2010 Jamal Charles, and a serious breakout candidate and top 5 wide receiver this year Julio Jones. If the Chiefs are going to get it done it will have be on the ground. I think this will be proved to be difficult against the 6th ranked run and pass defense last year and has only improved in the offseason. They acquired Asante Samuel from the Eagles and gravely upgraded their coverage defense. I expect this game to be close in the first half until the Falcons blow it out and force the chiefs to throw the ball to catch up in the game. Atlanta has the best 1-2 tandem at wide receivers in the league this year. Roddy White has been a monster the last couple seasons being the most targeted wideout in the league and posting consecutive 1000 yard receiving seasons. Expect his totals to be around the same this year but for the second year Julio Jones to explode. He is the more explosive of these two receivers and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him become Matt Ryan’s favourite target this year as the season rolls on. With that in mind these two guys will be putting up huge numbers all season and will be the focal point of this offense with the ageing Michael Turner in the backfield. Atlanta is my dark horse this year, don’t be surprised to see them playing for the Superbowl this winter or putting up numbers through the air you commonly see in New Orleans every year or Detroit last year. This game will be one of the best to be seen on sunday, expect Atlanta to beat this spread of  -3.5 with ease and start this season much like they always do, in the win column.  
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 35 – CHIEFS 21

GAME #3









PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9.5) VS CLEVELAND BROWNS


This game to me is a no brainer. One of the best overall offenses in the league against one of the worst NFL franchises of all time, I’ll take the Eagles. Mark my word this team WILL be a dream team this year. They have all the tools in place, one year under their belt playing together, Desean Jackson got his contract which will keep him from holding back this year, Vick will be wearing a kevlar jacket to protect his body from injury and for this team, this year it is Superbowl championship or failure. 
Michael Vick should have no problem on his way too 3 Passing TD’s and a rushing TD to help remind us of how he played in 2010 not 2011. They will look fantastic in this season opener against the browns and well the browns…will look like the browns! I find it hard for them to keep this game anywhere close when you have to shut down one of the deadliest quarterbacks in the league using his legs, the touchdown leader for runningbacks last year LeSean McCoy and a great receiving tandem in Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Might I add they are expected to do this all while possibly not having their best CB Joe Haden pending a suspension? Doubtful! This game will be a blowout and I think the Eagles secondary will look much more like they do on paper this year. Expect the browns to have a difficult time getting anything going and the eagles to be flexing their offensive arsenal all day long. 
Oh! and did I mention that the Browns haven’t won their home opener since 2004 and since 2005 they have gone 0-7 in there first game and 0-6 against the spread over that span. If that doesn’t tell you something I don’t know what will. It almost feels like highway robbery the line they are giving on this game.
FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 45 – BROWNS 10

GAME 4















SAN DEIGO CHARGERS (-1.5) VS OAKLAND RAIDERS



In the last football game of week 1 and one of the monday night games I see Oakland holding off the chargers and winning at home to start their season. Both the Raiders and Chargers fizzled and finished with 8-8 records in the always close AFC West Division. I don’t expect this season or game to be any different. It will be close but I have to give the bacon to the Raiders, they have one of the most explosive RB’s in the league healthy to start the year with Darren McFadden. This guy is a beast and it will be showcased on monday night in this matchup. I expect him to put up somewhere around 120 yards rushing and 2 TDs. The chargers will be trying all night to stop this man. As for the chargers they saw several changes this offseason to their offense and we will get the first chance to see how this attack looks without Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert. Letting these guys go they are putting all their chips into the Ryan Mathews pot and so far it hasn’t turned out so well. He broke his collarbone in game 1 of the preseason and won’t be seen in this game due to injury. If he was able to play in this game it would completely change everything. But with him out and Ronnie Brown due to take over lead duties, I just can’t imagine him getting it done. Philip Rivers will have to throw for at least 3 TDs if there is hope for this chargers offense while Antonio Gates must look 5 years younger. But lets not kid ourselves here, this isn’t going to happen. Expect Carson Palmer will look much better under this Raiders offense after gaining a year of experience and given the chance to learn the Raiders offensive playbook.  This game could go either way, a battle of offense and a low scoring affair or an all out ariel attack. This game could prove to be pivotal down the stretch to which of these teams makes the playoffs come January. 
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 14 – RAIDERS 17