UFC vs Memphis NCAA 2014

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE MATCHUP

UCF KNIGHTS VS #20 MEMPHIS TIGERS (-13.5) 

ODDS: BET365 

At 9PM EST tonight the ball will drop between the Memphis Tigers (18-5) and the UCF Knights (9-12) in FedExForum. UCF is still aiming to win only their second game of 2014, while the Tigers look to go undefeated on their three game home stand. Oddsmakers have appropriately listed Memphis as 13.5-point favourites for tonights meeting. Lets take a look why without a doubt I expect Memphis to cover that spread; 

Memphis enters this game one of the best all around offensive teams in the country. They are amongst the top 40 teams in the nation for points per game (27th, 79.8), rebounds per game (34th, 38.7), assists per game (4th, 17.7) and field goal percentage (23rd, .480). While these numbers speak volume about just how versatile the Tigers are; my focal point lies on the fact they are at home for this matchup. Few teams in basketball have a seemingly larger home court advantage than that of Memphis. In their last 5 home games they are undefeated, scoring an average of 84.8 points per contest, and have won by an average of 21.2 points! Keep in mind that many of these games have been versus weaker American Athletic conference opponents, but none the less you can slide the Knights right into that category with their 9-12 record. Incorporate all this with the fact UFC hasn’t won a conference game since January 4th and in their last four road outings have lost by an average of 17 points or more; a Memphis blowout is seemingly inevitable. 

Even if UCF somehow manages to keep this game close until the latter half Memphis should pull away. The Tigers are limiting opponents to 29.8% from beyond the ark this season (24th in the country) while the Knights have been terrible defensively this year allowing teams to convert buckets 45.3% of the time (263rd in the country). Memphis is 5-1 against the spread versus UCF the last three seasons, its not a matter of ‘will’ Memphis pull away in this game, but ‘when’. 

TRENDS 

UCF 

• 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up loss
• 5-16-1 against the spread in their last 22 games overall 
• 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games as an underdog