SUPERBOWL 52

posted in: 2017 NFL Picks, NFL Picks | 0

Well divisional weekend did not go as expected. New England advanced, but failed to cover the 7-points, while Minnesota crumbled in the biggest game of the year sending my record to 0-2 for divisional weekend. Entering Super Bowl 52 my playoff record now sits at 6-4. With only one game remaining I’m counting my lucky charms, hopeful to finish a tough 2017 season on a winning note. This is how I see Super Bowl 52 stacking up.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+4.5) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

If you were quick to pull the trigger on Philadelphia and the points then you could have gotten much better value than 4 and a half points. This line opened Patriots -6.5 but has done nothing but drop since all the money is coming in on Philadelphia. In Las Vegas the MGM Grand reported taking a 2 million dollar wager on the Eagles and the points early last week. While another casino reportedly took a wager on the Eagles money line at five hundred thousand. All the early money is flowing on the Eagles and that should say something. Obviously the rule of recency comes into play here because in the Patriots barely squeaked past the Jaguars and the Eagles stomped the Vikings, but I’m still happy to lay the 4 and a half points in this situation.

Believe it or not, the Patriots have not scored a single point in the first quarter in each of the seven Super Bowl games they have been in. They start historically slow in this situation and that plays perfectly into the hands of the Eagles. Philadelphia has a strong ground game to eat up clock, and if Nick Foles plays anywhere close to last weekend then exposing the Patriots secondary is very attainable. Watching Tom Brady enter an 8th Super Bowl and fail to score a single point in the first quarter would be a shocking trend, but with the Eagles defense it might not be that far fetched. Brady has made some massive mistakes in the first half of past Super Bowls. In two of the last three appearances he has allowed a safety and pick-six, while throwing at least one interception in each contest. Brady might be the GOAT but he seems vulnerable in this situation, and that doesn’t stack up well against a Eagles defense that is fully embracing the underdog role and extremely complete at nearly every position. Philadelphia finished the regular season #1 in run stopping defense, and their ability to pressure the quarterback is unprecedented. Nobody was able to apply pressure on the quarterback better than the Eagles defensive line this year. History should not go unnoticed, thats all I’ve got for this matchup. New England got embarrassed against Denver only two years ago, and New York knocked them off twice in the Super Bowl due to their ability to pressure Brady. If the Eagles are able to make the GOAT uncomfortable and disrupt the offensive line it will throw a massive wrench in the Patriots game plan. We are all aware Brady is not the most mobile quarterback in the league, containing him in the pocked is not the problem, it is the amount of space and time he is available in that situation.

This game could be 23-0 Eagles at half-time and I still wouldn’t be resting on laurels. In fact, I might consider putting some money on the Patriots money line to win outright at that point. Last year the Patriots handed me one of the toughest pills to swallow. I had the Falcons at 8-1 to win the Super Bowl, and thought it was smooth sailing. Well, we all know the epic collapse the Falcons had in the second half and I couldn’t do anything but wish I had hedged my bet on New England money line at 20-1 to come back and win outright. I am no way eliminating the possibility that the Patriots win their 6th Super Bowl, but to have them win by more than 5-points is unlikely. In each of the Patriots five Super Bowl victories they have won by more than five points only once. Historically this is a very close game for New England and I expect this Super Bowl to be no different. Philadelphia might have to wait to earn their first ring, but they have in my view a clear advantage on both the defensive and offensive line. Fletcher Cox is a monster and the Eagles offensive line has given up only two sacks the entire post-season. Very impressive considering the defensive teams they have faced in their two games. New England will have to find a way to make Foles uncomfortable under center, and I don’t know how they are going to achieve that without taking Zack Ertz completely out of the game. Ertz absolutely destroyed the Vikings defensive game play in the divisional round and created a mismatch that Minnesota just couldn’t stop. The Vikings had the best third-down defensive in history, and Ertz destroyed them. Looking at the defensive depth chart it is hard to find a player that matches up with Ertz, which means he could be in for another big game. New England has lived all season long by a bend but don’t break defensive approach. It has allowed them to give up a ton of yards, but not a ton of points. If the Eagles execute on the offensive side of the football and Ertz replicates his past two performances then the Eagles are in a great situation to cover 5 points.

With Gronkowski still in concussion protocol and no news on his ability in this game, you might be best to wait on this game if you like the Eagles. I have no doubt in my mind that Gronk will suite up in this game, which should bring a flood of Patriots money in once the news is released. I’m expecting this line to kick off Patriots -5 at least come game time. We have yet to see New England money come in, and it will most definitely happen before kick-off on Sunday. Nonetheless, give me the Eagles and the points in this situation.

FINAL SCORE – EAGLES 26 – PATRIOTS 27