Conference championship weekend turned out to be very anticlimactic. Both Atlanta and New England advanced with big wins, while handing me a 0-2 record on contrary. I was looking for Green Bay to cover 5-points and Pittsburgh to cover 6-points, neither of which happened. Both games were decided by more than 19-points. Making eight of ten post-season games this year being won by 13 or more points. That exemplifies just how terrible the games have been in January. With only one game left this year, I am hopeful we will be riding the edges of our seats until the very end. My record heading into Super Bowl weekend is 7-3 in January, and 42-33-2 overall this season. Before I get right into who I’m favouring in the biggest game this season, I’ll recap some important antidotes from championship weekend and some proposition bets I’m circling for the big dance.
PACKERS 21 – FALCONS 44
This game was out of hand from the beginning. Matt Ryan is really beginning to earn his nickname Matty Ice. Green Bay had no answer to the Falcons offense. But the biggest surprise of this matchup not the Falcons offense, but their defensive play. At half-time they had held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to zero points. This was accomplished by Mason Crosby missing a 41-yard field goal on the Packers first possession, then Aaron Ripkowski fumbling the ball inside the Falcons red-zone on the Packers second drive. If Green Bay had walked away with 10-points in those two possessions like they should have, this game could have had a completely different script. But it didn’t, and Atlanta capitalized scoring a touchdown on nearly every single possession. They punted only two times the entire game. I really think that the Packers used up all the juice they had to defeat the Cowboys the week before. None-the-less cheeseheads have to be happy with the run their teams game them. Nobody expected the Packers to be one of four teams left at the end of January after a 4-6 start.
STEELERS 16 – PATRIOTS 35
Ben Roethlisberger pronounced last Tuesday on a Pittsburgh radio station he is considering retirement. Do I think this will happen? Hell no. Ben still has lots in the tank and next season he will be getting Martavis Bryant back from his year long suspension. But without question I can see how he is disappointed right now. Pittsburgh was labelled as one of the best offensive teams in the league all year, yet through their last eight quarters of football they managed only one passing touchdown. New England and Kansas City both shut them down, and I’m throwing that egg right on Mike Tomlin’s face. Roethlisberger got intercepted in the end-zone versus Kansas City on a first and goal situation from the 5-yard line. I was screaming at the TV, why are you throwing the ball in that situation! Give the ball to Le’Veon Bell for christ sake. I couldn’t believe it. Then they go and do it again versus the Patriots. With the ball on the Patriots 1-yard line 1st and goal they ran two terrible plays and got stuffed, settling for a field goal to end the half down 17-9. If they scored a touchdown in that situation, we again might have been looking at a different football game.
SUPERBOWL 51 PROP BETS
MATT RYAN – SUPERBOWL MVP (+175)
Every year I love this bet. Last season was an exception with Von Miller winning this award, but nearly every year the winning quarterback gets this award. If you think that Atlanta will win this game, then putting money on Matt Ryan to win MVP is a much more profitable bet. Right now betting Atlanta to win straight up would earn you $235 on a $100 bet. But betting on Ryan to win MVP would net you a cool $275 on a $100 dollar bet, a much better return. Be honest with yourself, if Atlanta wins the Super Bowl who else could win this award? Julio Jones possibly with a 10 catch 200 yard performance, but I don’t see that one happening.
TOUCHDOWN SCORERS – CHRIS HOGAN (+175)
You’re telling me that the guy who just torched the Steelers secondary for a Patriots post-season record 9 catches 180 yards and touchdowns, is paying $275 on a $100 dollar bet to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl? Sign me up. Hogan might be smaller and have somewhat unsure hands, but him and Tom Brady seem to be forming some chemistry. What I like best about this bet is Hogan is running a very similar route tree to what Rob Gronkowski would be running. He has basically slipped right into his spot. Brady is familiar with throwing the ball into these spots. Hogan should see his fair share of targets on Super Bowl Sunday, its just a question of whether one crosses the goal-line. Seems likely and the odds are just to good to pass up.
FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER – MOHAMMED SANU (+1600)
This one here is a bit of a long shot, but a good shot. Julio Jones is the stud when it comes to the Falcons passing attack and you can bet on New England trying to completely blanket him in the red-zone. Which should leave Sanu with a little more space to operate and we saw last weekend just how much Ryan likes throwing him the ball. He finished the game with five catches on seven targets and a touchdown. He is undoubtedly the number two receiver in this offense and a great candidate to catch the first touchdown of this game. Either way you don’t have to break the bank to make some profit on this bet. A simple $10 wager would net you $190 if he does in fact record the first touchdown of the game.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (+3)
The New England Patriots (16-2) have won the AFC, and the Atlanta Falcons (13-5) have won the NFC, each earning a spot in Super Bowl 51 in Houston this year. I’m hopeful that this game will be more exciting than the majority of games we’ve witnessed this post-season. With the over/under being placed at 58 points, it is the highest total ever set for the Super Bowl. This should come as no surprise with the two highest scoring regular season teams meeting in this years championship. For Atlanta, this is only their second ever Super Bowl appearance. They lost in 1998 against the Denver Broncos and John Elway 34-19. When looking at New England, their Super Bowl resume is packed. They are making their 9th Super Bowl appearance and 7th with Tom Brady at quarterback. Brady will go down in the history books as one of if not thee best quarterback of all time. But with a win in Houston Brady would win his 5th Super Bowl, more than any other quarterback in history. He is currently tied with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana with 4. With the Patriots being listed as 3-points favourites for this game, bookmakers expect that Brady will get that coveted 5th ring this season.
Can you believe that entering week fifteen Atlanta was 8-5 and tied with Tamp Bay for the NFC South title? They were coming off a heartbreaking loss against Kansas City on an intercepted 2-point conversion, and many analysts began arguing that Tampa Bay would win the NFC South division. Boy were they wrong. Atlanta has not lost a single game since that heartbreaking defeat versus the Chiefs. This team is playing at an incredibly high level and earned every right to make their second ever Super Bowl appearance. Entering the year Atlanta had the toughest strength of schedule in the entire league, with their opponents posting a 142-114 record in 2015. They overcame the toughness, the injuries, and the adversity during the season to earn this spot. But the one player that really gets me excited for this game is Matt Ryan. I’ve always been a believer in the talent he possess. In 2012 when Atlanta lost in the conference championship game against San Francisco I was crushed. Mostly because I had $75 on them to win the Super Bowl at 22/1. But even more, because Matt Ryan wasn’t getting the respect he has deserved. Ask anyone who are the top five, even top ten quarterbacks in this league and many people would leave Ryan out. He is never included when discussing the best quarterbacks in the league. Throughout the post-season I have heard sports radio callers phone up and throw Matt Ryan in the dirt. Saying he has zero right to the nickname “Matty Ice” because he never closes games. Well, I’ve got one message for all the haters out there, Matty Ice just earned that nickname tossing the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers in consecutive weeks; and I expect him to cement his name amongst the elite quarterbacks in the league when he becomes the first quarterback to hand the Patriots and Tom Brady a Super Bowl loss this century not named Eli Manning.
Some of you might be wondering how I can be betting against Tom Brady in this situation. The man has been on a revenge tour his entire career. He has been made every team pay that passed on him in the draft since coming into the league, and will be looking to accept the Lombardi Trophy from the very man that suspended him before the season for 4 games without outstanding evidence (Roger Goodell). Seeing that would unfold would undoubtedly be exciting, but I don’t think that is what we are in for. I think come February 5th Atlanta will have several defensive packages and blitz schemes to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket. Pittsburgh failed miserably in this area and Brady went through their secondary like it was swiss cheese. That same thing won’t happen in the Super Bowl, and it all starts with Vic Beasley. Beasley’s sophomore campaign was fantastic, he finished the league leading in sacks with 15.5 and added another 6 forced fumbles. Denver was able to punt the Patriots in the conference championship last season because of the pressure Von Miller was able to establish on Brady. I’m not saying that Beasley is anywhere near the calibre of player that Miller is, but his performance will decide whether the Falcons win their first ever Super Bowl. I’m looking for him to have a big impact on this game, despite the fact he will probably be double teamed for much of the afternoon. Dan Quinn is a defensive mastermind and will definitely give the Patriots offense some looks they hadn’t seen in tapes during their 2 week preparation.
I feel like Bill Belichick is getting all the love entering this game, and Dan Quinn is merely an afterthought. Belichick is one of the best coaches ever and his win percentage speaks to that, but lets look at what Dan Quinn has accomplished. Quinn has spent numerous seasons in the NFL as a defensive line coach, to defensive coordinator. His most recent tenure before taking the head coaching job in Atlanta was as the Seahawks defensive coordinator between 2013-2014, the year Seattle won the Super Bowl. He is a defensive minded coach and this is rarely discussed because Atlanta has had such an incredible offense this season. Quinn knows the packages, he knows how to confuse opposing offensive teams and I believe that a tremendously large chunk of the Falcons success this season should be directly attributed to good coaching. Several games each season are won and lost with poor coaching decisions. Pittsburgh shot down any chance they had against the Patriots in the AFC championship with bad coaching and poor play calling. While that very same thing could be said about Bill O’Brien and the Texans the week before. Dan Quinn, he will not make these same mistakes. Many people forget that he has been here before, and had the Seahawks defense hold the Denver Broncos to 8-points. The same Denver team that in 2013 set the record as the highest scoring team in NFL history averaging 37.9 points per game. Obviously his personal is different this time around, but that doesn’t mean his team won’t be prepared. I’m expecting this coaching duel to much more even than some people expect.
The Patriots defense has been tremendous this season, I can’t take that away from them. They were the #1 scoring defense in the league giving up only 15.7 points per game. It is easy to build a case that Atlanta hasn’t faced a defense much like the Patriots all season. But my rebuttal to that argument is the Patriots defense hasn’t faced an offence as electric as the Falcons all year. Atlanta was the best offense in the NFL this year. Only one team held them under 20-points all season, and they managed to score 23-points or more versus each the Broncos, Seahawks and Chiefs this year. Three teams which finished #2, #3 and #6 in scoring defensive this year, allowing less than 20-points per game. If anyone is capable of running up the score against the Patriots it is Atlanta. They have a two headed beast in the backfield between Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. While Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Talyor Gabriel round out the most lethal passing attack in the league this year. As for Matt Ryan, he is the cherry on top and what allows this team to “RISE UP”.
Stepping back to the matchup game this weekend. By the time this game kicks off I’m sure Bill Belichick and Malcolm Butler will have watched about 10 hours of tape on Julio Jones, but I don’t think that really matters. Jones is easily a top three receiver in the league and is a game changer. Just look back at the 73 yard touchdown he scored to start the second half against Green Bay in the conference championship. I think the Patriots are going to combat his talent but placing a safety over the top to assist Malcolm Butler. But I’m not sure that will help their cause. Julio missed two games this season due to a toe injury, and that didn’t slow down the Falcons offense one bit, they scored over 40-points in both contests. Even if the Patriots find a way to completely remove Jones from this game; I can still see Atlanta winning this game. I believe the real matchup that will decide this game is between Logan Ryan and Mohamed Sanu. With Julio drawing much of the attention Sanu will be open to make plays and I’m banking on him to do just that against Ryan. Sanu spent four seasons in Cincinnati and make three post-season appearances. In those three appearances he had only four catches for 61 yards and zero touchdowns. He didn’t make an impact in those three games to say the least. But in only two post-season games with the Falcons Sanu has nine catches for 96 yards and two touchdowns. He has been a game changer for this team and has the talent to step up to the plate and knock the ball out of the park when his number is called. Even if the Patriots completely shut-down Julio on Sunday that doesn’t mean Matt Ryan and the Falcons are doomed. I think Sanu is ready for this test and will stretch into the end-zone for a game changing score for Atlanta at least once during Super Bowl 51.
Betting against the Patriots is a very difficult thing. They had an incredible year, and are flawless in nearly every scenario against the spread. But playing in the Super Bowl is a completely different beast, and the favourites have not faired well in recent Super Bowl history. Since 2003, favourites at kick-off in the Super Bowl have gone 3-10 against the spread, and 6-7 straight up. That total includes the Patriots whom are 0-4 against the spread across this span (neglecting their most recent Super Bowl against Seattle when the game kicked off as a pick’em). History quite regularly repeats itself and if anyone is capable of handing New England a loss it is the Falcons. They have been battled tested and pushed to the edge in several games this season overcome all that adversity. I’m putting my marbles on Atlanta to be hosting their first ever Lombardi Trophy come 930pm EST on Sunday February 4th.
TRENDS
NEW ENGLAND
14-21 against the spread when playing with 2 weeks or more of the rest since 1992
7-6 against the spread versus AFC South opponents since 1992
ATLANTA
20-7 against the spread in their last 27 games as an underdog
4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
6-2 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins this season