You can feel it, it’s right at the end of your finger tips. As January comes to close and the days continue to grow longer it means one very important thing; the Superbowl is here. Superbowl XLVIII is “scheduled” to kick off at 6:30 EST in New York. I say it is “scheduled” because the major snowstorm set to hit the New York/New Jersey area could mean the NFL following through with a contingency plan and moving the date for the game to either Monday or Tuesday. Lets get real, nobody wants to see this game played on any other day than Sunday. All this aside, my predictions for the NFC and AFC Conferences went 2-0 with both the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks advancing to the most important game being played all year. This Brings my post-season record to an abysmal 3-5-2, and leaves me with no shot at finishing at or above .500. None the less, here is who I have pegged to take home the Lombardi Trophy Superbowl XLVIII this year.
DENVER BRONCOS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+2)
ODDS: BET365
For only the fifth time in Superbowl history this weekend’s game will be compromised of the leagues top offensive team (Denver) versus the leagues best defense (Seattle). The Broncos amassed a ridiculous 603 total points this season scoring 22 more touchdowns than the next best offense and became the first team in NFL history to have more than 3 wide receivers with 10 or more touchdowns. As for the Seahawks, they finished the season allowing only 231 total points, 22 total touchdowns, and had four defensive players with 3 interceptions or more this season. There is no denying that this game is shaping up to become a real knee slapper. Oddsmakers opened the line with Seattle as 1-point favourites, but the betting public quickly hammered the Broncos, moving Denver to as much as 3-point favourites at one point. It has since dropped to Broncos by 2-points and not moved, while the over/under has been placed at 47. For reasons yet to be specified (read below), I’m advising all you gamblers out there to ride the Seahawks this weekend. Thats right, I’m already calling the Seattle Seahawks Superbowl XLVIII Champions.
Its a simple term that everyone at some point in their life has heard; “offense wins games, but it is defense that wins Championships.” Coincidently that is also the tune that I will be following this weekend, and if history repeats itself (which it often does) it is one you should be following too. In this being the fifth Superbowl showcasing the leagues best offense versus the best defense since the AFL-NFL merger; all but one of the previous four games were won by the best defensive team. Now, lets go ahead and chalk that up with the fact we find ourselves having the first ever outdoor Superbowl held in below freezing temperatures. I can tell you folks are already beginning to like Seattle more and more.. Everything about this game to me reads “advantage Seahawks”. If it snows? that is just fantastic; Seattle is one of the premier running teams they finished the year ranked 4th in the league averaging 136 yards per game. Combine that with the fact things wouldn’t be anywhere near ideal for Peyton, and I really really like the odds. Manning did prove to us once again this year that he is more than capable of playing in cold weather, but playing in freezing cold weather is another story. Look no further than his career record of 2-8 when playing in game temperatures of below freezing, or 0-2 in all games below 20 degrees. It’s quite clear, Denver rely’s on Peyton Manning to win games, without him they wouldn’t even be at this point. If he can’t compete at his highest level this Sunday, Seattle should have their way by simply playing tough defense and running the ball.
To this point it would be an understatement to say the media has exhausted the fact this years Superbowl showcases the best defense versus the best offense. Heck, even I just spent the last two paragraphs mentioning it, but the real thing we must not forget is that there is two sides to each of these football teams. Seattle’s offense finished the year ranked 8th overall putting up an average of 26.1 points per game. They bolster one of the best read options in the league, and have displayed they are capable of making a comeback if their defense gets exposed. As for Denver’s defense, I’m not sure if the same thing could be said. They have a mountain of injuries and will be missing some of their most important players for their most important game all season. Von Miller (Outside Linebacker), Kevin Vickerson (Tackle), Rahim Moore (Safety), Derek Wolfe (Defensive End) and Chris Harris (Cornerback) will all be riding the pine for this one. Von Miller lead this team in sacks last season with 18.5, but I believe their biggest loss is starting cornerback Chris Harris. He made this team as an undrafted rookie in 2011 and since has been nothing but spectacular. In plays this season with Harris on the field the Broncos allowed an average quarterback rating of 43.6; in the 81 snaps he didn’t see, that number jumped to 93. Its no surprise when he got injured against San Diego in the divisional round of the playoffs the Broncos pissed away their 17-0 lead and the Chargers made it a contest. This might leave some of you to say “But they did a fine job of shutting down the Patriots!” My argument to that is the Patriots offense was banged up all season long, the game was played in Denver, and once again..New England’s defense is nothing close to Seattle..
STATISTICS IN WHICH SEATTLE LEAD THE NFL THIS SEASON
1st – Points allowed per game – 14.4
1st – Yards allowed per game – 274
1st – Yards allowed per play – 4.2
1st – Passer rating allowed – 63
1st – Plays resulting in 20 yards or more – 36
1st – Turnovers – 39
If all this information isn’t enough to make you start believing Seattle will win this game, then I don’t know what will. As far as I can tell Denver hasn’t faced a defense all season long that is as physical or as strong as the Seahawks. Expect that to be seen this weekend and will ultimately lead the legion of boom to take down their first ever Lombardi Trophy, and Peyton Manning fly home once again with nothing but frozen tears streaming down his face.
TRENDS
DENVER
- 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 playoff games
SEATTLE
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as an underdog
- 18-7 against the spread in their last 25 games following a straight up win
FINAL SCORE – DENVER 20 – SEATTLE 23