Super Bowl XLVII

posted in: 2012 NFL Picks | 0

February is right around the corner and with that comes Superbowl 47. This sunday will be the last time we see NFL football until early August (for those of you who watch pre-season). With my conference round predictions I went 1-0-1, improving too 4-5-1 in the postseason this year. I  am hoping to finish season on a winning note. Here is who I like to win the Superbowl.

SUPERBOWL XLVII 








BALTIMORE RAVENS VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-3.5)

ODDS: BET 365 

Super 47 kicks off at 6:30PM EST this Sunday in the New Orleans Superdome Stadium. With oddsmakers releasing the line at -5 49ers, it has since moved too -3.5 with everyone taking action on Baltimore. Here are the reasons why I think that San Francisco, and the younger of the two Harbaugh brothers will undoubtedly win Superbowl 47. 
What many people have already dubbed the “Harbowl”, I believe is going to become only the 3rd Superbowl in 7 years where the favourite wins the game and covers the spread. If you look at the statistic’s, the 49ers are the much better team in this matchup. Don’t get me wrong, I have been high on Baltimore the entire playoffs, picking them in the wildcard, divisional, and conference finals. But I can’t help ignoring the fact that much of their motivation is fueled through Ray Lewis announcing his retirement. With that I ask myself when does this motivation run out? Will it last the entire game against this 49ers team? It could be something that wins them Superbowl 47, but nobody can overlook the fact the Ravens have played a full 5 quarters more of football than the 49ers entering this game. 
Something else that cannot be ignored is that Baltimore hasn’t been battle tested like San Francisco. The most the Ravens have been behind at any point throughout the playoffs is 7 points. A position where they are still able to run the ball, use play action, and give Flacco time to find open receivers down field. They haven’t been faced with a large deficit, an area where Flacco usually flops and teams pick him and his poor decisions off. As for the 49ers they were down by 17 in Atlanta and proved they have what it takes to make a comeback. They were pushed to the limits, and they have the pieces to make a comeback. Kaepernick may still be a rookie but he has made Jim look like a genius. He has the ability to throw the ball, hand it off, but most importantly he can run the option. He single handedly brought the 49ers back when they were down against both Green Bay and Atlanta. He has what it takes, something I can’t say about Flacco. Flacco might have beaten the likes of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in these playoffs, but those teams also don’t have the defense of San Francisco or the threat of a mobile quarterback. I think that if Baltimore falls behind by anything more than a touchdown in this game, they won’t have what it takes to make the comeback.  
The Ravens enter this matchup averaging 30 points per game throughout the playoffs. They are putting up New England Patriot like numbers on offense this post-season. Something that they can’t continue to accomplish, and something I expect to end in this game. The 49ers limited opponents to an average of 17 points per game this season (2nd in the league). While they haven’t been playing spectacular defense in these playoffs, I think they are saving the best for last. I expect for them to throw multiple blitzing packages at Flacco, forcing him to make those terrible decisions that almost always lose Baltimore the game.
Here are a couple outrageous predictions I have for Superbowl XLVII; 
JOE FLACCO – PASSING ATTEMPTS OVER 34.5

Flacco has averaged 31 pass attempts in both the regular season and playoffs this year. They reason I like the over in this game is I expect the Ravens to be playing from behind and he will be forced into throwing the ball the whole 2nd half. He had 36 attempts against New England in the conference finals, that was a game they were leading. 

COLIN KAEPERNICK – LONGEST RUSH OVER 19.5

In both playoff games Kaepernick has a rush attempt over 19.5 yards. Against Green Bay he ran for a long of 56, and against Atlanta a long of 23. Since taking over the starting job this season he has rushed for a long of 19 yards or more in 6 of 10 games. 
VERNON DAVIS – OVER 50.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The Ravens have allowed tight ends to gain 45 or more yards in their last two games. Most recently Hernandez torched them for 83 yards. Almost everyone would agree when you say Vernon Davis is a physical freak. While it looks like him and Kaepernick are finally on the same page. He has averaged 75 yards and 5.5 targets across his last two games. 
 RAY LEWIS – TACKLES AND ASSISTS MADE UNDER 11 

So the man is retiring and he has been playing like a beast this post-season, but he can’t keep up this pace. Not to mention he still has an injured tricep. Lewis has 44 combined tackles and assists in the post-season alone, 18 more than the next best player. Unfortunately he hasn’t seen a quarterback that can use the option and his legs like Kaepernick. 
WILL JOE FLACCO THROWN AN INTERCEPTION – YES 

He can’t stay perfect for much longer. Flacco hasn’t thrown an interception in 5 games, but prior to this he had 10 interceptions in 15 outings. I expect him to throw at least one on sunday.

Many people might not know that Ray Lewis recorded his first career sack against 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh. Unfortunately his illustrious career is not going to end the same way. He will go down as the best player to ever don the middle linebacker position in football history; But he won’t go out on top. Another future hall of fame player will, Randy Moss. I expect Jim Harbaugh to get the best of his older brother John, earning his first Superbowl victory in only his 2nd year as the 49ers head coach.
TRENDS 

RAVENS 
  • 2-4 against the spread this season after 2 or more consecutive wins
  • 16-47 straight up as underdogs of 3.5-9.5 points since 1992
  • 3-5 straight up as an underdog this season
49ers
  • 23-12 against the spread across all games the last 2 seasons
  • 10-2 against the spread in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 years
  • 4-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season this year 
  • 4-0 against the spread in non-conference games this season
  • 16-6 against the spread in all games played on grass the last 2 seasons 
FINAL SCORE – BALTIMORE 17 – SAN FRANCISCO 30