Five hundred & twenty two games. One hundred and thirty six days later. The matchup for Super Bowl 50 has been set. Carolina and Denver will meet on Sunday February 7th to decide who gets crowned the best team in the league this season. Riding into the final game of the year my playoff record sits at a cool 5-5. I’ve been exactly .500 in every single round of the playoffs. With only one game left its a winner takes all approach. This is the biggest football game of the season and the single game that each year attracts part time bettor’s. But before I get into who I’m favouring in San Francisco – here’s a little recap of the divisional round.
NEW ENGLAND VS DENVER
This turned out to be an absolute defensive beat-down. Peyton Manning showed up early slinging two touchdown passes, but it was the defensive play of this team that carried them into Super Bowl 50. They made the Patriots offensive line look like a bunch of high-school kids. Tom Brady couldn’t get the ball out of his hands fast enough. They sacked him a total of four times and knocked him down another ten. Yet, at the end of this game everyone was holding their breathe when a two-point conversion would have tied the game and sent it into overtime. This win has to swing some bias around the Peyton Manning Vs. Tom Brady history. Peyton has won three in a row against the Patriots in the playoffs dating back to 2007, and will likely finish his career with that streak in his back pocket.
ARIZONA VS CAROLINA
Carolina absolutely waxed the Cardinals. They jumped out to an early lead much like against Seattle and never looked back. The best way to describe the play of Arizona in this game is embarrassing. Carson Palmer looked very much like a Super Bowl calibre quarterback all season, but this past weekend he couldn’t do a single thing right. The Panthers secondary made him look terrible, and his four interceptions and two lost fumbles are indicative of that. They look unstoppable right now and if this game was being playing in Carolina I would say go ahead and hand the trophy to the Panthers- but it isn’t. Everything aside they are rolling like nobody else and another blow-out win shows just how strong this team is.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-4.5) VS DENVER BRONCOS
The Carolina Panthers (17-1) have been crowned NFC champions, and the Denver Broncos (14-4) AFC champions. These two will square off in Super Bowl 50, a game which will become one of the most memorable games this season, and possibly even this decade. This marks the second time that Carolina has qualified for the big dance. The last time they played in the Super Bowl was 2004 in Houston, and Jake Delhomme was calling the shots under centre. They were ultimately defeated by that Patriots 32-29 on a last second 41-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri. You can bet this time around the Panthers organization will be looking for a different outcome. As for the Broncos, they’ve won a total of two Super Bowls. But when you compare that to their eight appearances, the wins are far less impressive. They’ll be aiming for that coveted third ring this time around, while Peyton Manning aims to become the first starting quarterback in NFL history to win rings with two different organizations. Oddsmakers are heavily favouring the Panthers in the final game of the season – Carolina is listed as 4.5-point favourites for Super Bowl 50. While the over/under has been set at 45-points.
Cam Newton has silenced nearly every critic out there this season. His 35 touchdown passes this season was a career high, while 10 interceptions was a career low. He is continuing to reshape how people view the role of a quarterback in this league and his 2 passing touchdown 2 rushing touchdown performance last weekend against Arizona in the Conference Championships exemplifies that. Few players have the skill set that Newton possesses, and the fact he put up such incredible numbers playing without Kelvin Benjamin all season is even more impressive. Benjamin accounted for over 1/3 of Newtons passing yards last season, and exactly 3/4 of his touchdown passes. Win or lose in the Super Bowl, Carolina looks like a force to be reckoned with for years to come, and the return of Benjamin next season should only strengthen the most potent offensive team in 2015.
This could very well be the last time we see Peyton Manning lace up. But Mike Tolbert could care less. He was interviewed shortly after the conference championships stating “We don’t really care if this is his last game, he’s played what – 18, 19 years? Its out turn”. Tolbert has a very valid point here. But the nostalgia behind this possibly being the last time we see Manning take the field has football fans everywhere (or should I say Broncos fans) hoping for a cinderella finish. I regret to inform you, I’m going to silence that hope.
Manning played like a shell of his former self all season long, and through two playoff games in January has done just enough to earn the Broncos a Super Bowl position. Can we pause for a minute and just think about how he threw 9 touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions all season? Or maybe we can discuss the “HGH allegations” that surfaced late in the season. I believe just as strongly as the guy next door that Peyton has played his entire career with the utmost integrity and passion. But his performance has gone noticeably downhill in the last 18 months due to injury, and maybe taking a performance enhancing drug is allowing him to finish off the final year of his career. There is a 95% chance that all these allegations are false, but lets just think about what would become of all of this if it were true. Its no secret that PEDs are used throughout the league on a regular basis, but the idea one of the NFL’s golden boys is caught up in such purgatory, that would be catastrophic.
HGH Allegations aside, Peyton Manning isn’t prepared to face this Carolina Panthers defense. It will be the best defensive team he has faced since Kansas City in week ten. That outcome you ask? Well, he produced 4 interceptions before the 4th quarter. Carolina operates a very similar defensive style to Kansas City in that once they smell blood in the water the game is over. In the last two games the Panthers have forced a staggering 9 turnovers. Nobody has been playing better than this defensive team when it comes to forcing turnovers – not even Denver. The Panthers closed out the season with a total of 39 forced turnovers – 6 more than the next best team. Analysts are eager to label the Broncos defense as the most talented in the league, but it is the Panthers ability to make big plays that should be concerning to Broncos bettors in Super Bowl 50. Denver’s offense turned the ball over the 2nd most in the entire league this season, 31 times. In 13 of 18 games this season they had multiple turnovers in a game – and in 6 games against defensive teams inside the top 15 of yards allowed per season they had 10 turnovers. The Panthers are right near the cream of the crop in this league. They should be licking their chops at the idea that a sloppy offensive teams lies between them and winning the Lombardi Trophy this season. It is not hard to realize this might be the most lopsided matchup of the entire Super Bowl and while we could very well see Peyton Manning go out on top – it’ll take one hell of a performance for such dreams to become reality.
Can the Broncos defense put up another spectacular performance for the Super Bowl? This question could very easily decide who wins this game. They have shut down consecutive top ten scoring teams in their last two games, but both of those games were at home, and against pocket-passing quarterbacks. Cam Newton brings a whole new element to containing an offense and it is something that this Broncos team hasn’t see much of this season. Newton gives the Panthers the ability to call three plays each snap – a passing, rushing or quarterback keep option. Few teams in the league have such flexibility and it has directly made Carolina unstoppable. In the last three games the Panthers 3rd down conversion rate is 58%, and their red zone scoring percentage is a whopping 90%. If the Panthers aren’t shut-down early in this game then we could easily see another repeat of the Broncos 2013 Super Bowl appearance. This is arguably an identical foe with similar play makers and a signal caller. It’ll be interesting to see if they learned anything from their 2013 beat down.
Michael Oher. This guy has barely been mentioned when discussing the success Carolina has had offensively this season. Every good offensive team has a strong offensive line and Michael Orr has helped the Panthers take that next step this season. He helped the Baltimore Ravens win the Superbowl in 2012, did a short stint in Tennessee, then found his way to Carolina in the off-season. He is arguably the most important piece on the Panthers front, and has done a phenomenal job protecting the blind-side of Newton all season. Carolina allowed 33 sacks this season to opposing defensive teams, a five year low. Denver does have one of the most feirce pass rushing defensive schemes in the league, but Pittsburgh and New England didn’t have an offensive line nearly as good as the Panthers do. Just look to Carolina’s two playoff games, they’ve allowed only 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hits across 8 quarters of football. Mind-blowing when you consider they’ve faced both Seattle and Arizona, two of the best zone blitzing teams in the league. It’s going to be a serious uphill battle on both sides of the ball for Denver to attain the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1999.
Dab City. That’s what San Francisco will be known as on Sunday February 7th. Carolina is going to blow the doors off Denver just like we witnessed in the 2013 Super Bowl. With the over/under set at 2 for how many times “dab” or “dabbing” will be said by the broadcasters during the game – I’m a firm believer we should all be riding the over. Expect Cam Newton to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in Carolina Panthers History.
TRENDS
CAROLINA
- 7-3 against the spread in games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game
- 8-2 against the spread after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favourite
- 3-0 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record this season
DENVER
- 0-1 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 points the past three seasons
- 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 playoff games
- 3-8 against the spread after accumulating over 250 total yards in their previous game
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – PANTHERS 34 – BRONCOS 20
Now that it’s been established I’m favouring the Panthers to win Super Bowl 50, its time to look at some proposition bets. In last years big finale I predicted six prop bets and nailed four of them. The four winners included the largest lead of the game, first touchdown scorer, the MVP, and a tribet final score (game ends within a 5 point difference). This year I’m hoping to be just as profitable.
WILL THERE BE A SAFETY SCORED? YES – 11/1
This bet is more value than likelihood. Both teams have incredible inside linebackers and defensive playmakers. All it will take is an accurate punt and we’re in business. There has been a safety in three of the last four Super Bowls – might as well ride with the trend and put some money down on it happening again this season.
FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER – TED GINN JNR – 12/1
Ted Ginn Jr. scored the first score of the game in the Conference Championship, who says he can’t do it again in the Super Bowl? Carolina was second to only New Orleans in first quarter points this season (7.2) and have orchestrated multiple scoring drives on their first possession this season. Four of the last five Super Bowls have seen a wide receiver score the first 6-points of the game – I’m looking for that streak to continue. Ginn is one of Newtons favourite targets and surely has value in scoring the first touchdown of Super Bowl 50.
SUPERBOWL MVP – CAM NEWTON – 1.61/1
No brainer. If Carolina wins the Superbowl – which I’m nearly certain they will, then Cam Newton will likely get MVP. Five of the last six Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. They are the most pivotal position on the field in every down and that should be witnessed again. You’re getting better value for Newton to win MVP than for Carolina to win the game outright – might as well put some money on Cam winning the honours.
PLAYER TO RECORD AN INTERCEPTIONS – JOSH NORMAN – YES – 3.50/1
Josh Norman has quickly made himself a household name. He is included amongst the most talent coverage players in the league, and I’m optimistic we see him pick off Peyton Manning in San Francisco. As I’ve already mentioned – Manning threw 17 interceptions in 10 regular season games. While Norman started the regular season with four interceptions in his first four games and hasn’t had one since. He’s due for one and Peyton should be chucking the ball up plenty once the Broncos fall behind in this game.
SPECIAL TEAMS OR DEFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN SCORED – YES – 2.62/1
Two of the best defensive teams in the league? Odds that one of them scores a special teams or defensive touchdown is too juicy to pass up. Luke Kuechly has become the only player in NFL history to score back-to-back pick-6 touchdowns in the playoffs – I don’t see why that streak can’t continue. While we can’t forget that Denver lived off their defense to score points in the first half of the regular season.
TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES – OVER 3.5 COMBINED
Cam Newton finished the regular season tied for 2nd with 35 touchdown passes. While Peyton Manning is fresh off a two touchdown performance against New England and looks rejuvenated. This game has the makings of being either a defensive showdown or full blown offensive exhibition – I’m leaning towards the latter of the two options. For that to happen we should see well over three touchdown passes combined.