RUTGER SCARLET KNIGHTS (+10.5) VS VILLANOVA WILDCATS
The Villanova Wildcats (16-10) return home tonight after splitting a two game road trip. Expect the Pavilion to be rocking when they tip-off against the Rutger Scarlet Knights (13-11) at 9PM EST on ESPN. Oddsmakers have listed the Wildcats as 10.5-point favourites, a spread that I feel is more than generous to the Rutgers. This game will easily be closer than ten points as these two Big East rivals duke it out tonight.
The Rutger Scarlet Knights are going to miss out on the NCAA tournament for a 22nd consecutive season, but that doesn’t mean they can’t play upset. They are no strangers to facing good teams this season and have played every ranked team in the Big East except Marquette. Although some would say they have a 1-4 record against those teams, I would say three of those games finished with them losing by six points or less, and one they won (#24 Pitt 67-62). You might ask what I am getting at here, well Villanova is no ranked team and the Rutgers match up perfectly against them. Villanova averages 68.8 points per game on offense, and gives up 65.2 per game on defense. The Rutgers score 66.4 points per game, and allow only slightly worse 66.8 points against per game.
Mark my words, three-point shooting for Villanova will decide this matchup. In the Wildcats last 4 games they have a 3-1 record; and in the three wins (Connecticut, South Florida, DePaul) they shot 26-52 from beyond the ark, a whopping 50%. Just an absurd percentage that is impossible to keep up. While their one loss (Cincinnati), they went 3-13 when shooting 3’s, or 23%. This was largely because Cincinnati has a strong three point defense. An area that just happens to be the Rutgers strongest on defense. The Knights are 64th in country limiting teams to 31.1% from beyond the ark.
Taking a look at Villanova’s defense, their 3-point defending is the worst in the Big East. They allow teams to sink 35.7% of the time from outside (268th nationally). While the Rutgers might not be best three point shooting team in the country, they are 4th in the conference shooting 35.3% and can get it done. This game could easily turn into a battle of 3’s. I like the Rutgers to keep this game closer than ten points, maybe even closer than five. Take the Scarlet Knights +10.5 tonight at the Pavilion.
TRENDS
SCARLET KNIGHTS
- 5-3 against the spread when the total is between 130-134.5 in the last 3 seasons
- 2-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 9.5-12 points this season
- 6-3 straight up this season in games decided by 6 points or less
- 12-21 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record after 15+ games in the last 3 seasons
- 4-15 against the spread in the month of February the last 3 seasons
- 4-10 straight up when playing with one day or less of rest the last 3 seasons