BIG TEN CONFERENCE MATCHUP
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (+11.5) VS MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
ODDS: BET365
Although I am a huge fan of Michigan State and when it comes to college sports they are my team I have to bet against them today. Purdue enters this matchup playing their best basketball all season long. They have won 3 straight, most recently against #11 Illinois (68-61).
The Boilermakers look to be in line for their second upset in back-to-back games. They have the 7th ranked road defense in the league giving up only 54 points per game and one of the better 3-point shooters in the Big Ten conference with D.J Byrd. He has been hitting 32% from beyond the ark this season while Michigan hasn’t been the best at defending 3’s ranking 136th in the country.
If there is one advantage that Purdue has entering Michigan it is grabbing boards. They are 13th in the country with 41.7 rebounds per game, with almost half (14.6) being on offense. During their most recent 3 game win streak they have out rebounded opponents in each game. Something they will have to accomplish against this tough Spartans club in order to keep it close.
This might be toughest stretch of games that the Boilermakers have all season long. Facing three ranked opponents in a row (Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State). If they can great through this stretch winning 2/3 they might have a shot to creep back into Big Ten contention. I don’t expect them to beat this Spartans team that has won 10 straight Big Ten home openers. But if the past repeats this game will be close. In their last ten meetings Purdue is averaging 63.2 PPG, while Michigan is putting up only a point more at 64.3 PPG.
TRENDS
PURDUE
- 5-2 against the spread in their last 3 seasons where the total is set between 120-129.5
- 1-6 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record
- 0-4 against a good defensive team allowing less than 64 points per game
- 1-3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons when favoured between 9.5-12 points
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games