PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (-14.5)
This Big-10 matchup is set to tip off at 7PM EST on ESPN. The Michigan Wolverines (17-1) are looking to stay perfect in the Crisler Center versus the Purdue Boilermakers (10-8). Purdue comes into this matchup on a three game with streak, unfortunately I see that ending here.
Michigan has one of the best all-around teams in the nation this year. They are going to be a matchup nightmare for the Boilermakers. The Wolverines are 9th in the country averaging 79.3 points per game, while they’re defense is 39th giving up an average of 59.5 per game. This works out to them beating opponents by average of 19.8 points, with their latest victory coming in Minnesota against the #9 Gophers (83-75).
As for the Boilermakers they rely on great defense to win them games. They giving up 61.2 PPG (63rd in the nation) but are 0-5 when they allow teams to score 70 points or more. Something they are going to struggle to hold the Wolverines under. Michigan has put up 70 points or more in 14 of 18 games played this year.
Much of Michigan’s success this season has come from doing the little things. They are averaging 1.23 points per possession (1st in the nation), are shooting an incredible 51% from the field (3rd in the nation). While if you turn the ball over against this team they will make it hurt. They are great at spreading the floor, and are 3rd in the country with a 1.65 assist/turnover margin.
Watch for Sophomore Trey Burke and Junior Tim Hardaway Jr. to both have big games. They are both averaging over 16 PPG placing them in the top 5 scorers in the Big-10. While Burke is leading the Big-10 dishing out 7.1 APG. There is so many places on the floor that Michigan can hurt you I find it difficult to see Purdue coming in and covering this spread. After all, when playing at home this season the Wolverines are outscoring opponents by an average 25.6 points.
TRENDS
PURDUE
- 2-5 against the spread versus good defensive teams this season allowing 64 points or less per game
- 0-1 against the spread versus good offensive teams averaging 77+ points per game
- 1-3 straight up versus top 25 teams this season
- 50-28 against the spread in all lined games over the last 3 seasons
- 42-23 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons
- 25-10 against the spread versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or less the last 3 seasons
- 11-0 straight up at home this season
- 8-0 blowout games winning by 19 points or more