BIG EAST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH VS CINCINNATI BEARCATS (-5)
ODDS: BET365
This matchup between two top 25 ranked teams should be a treat to watch. The BearCats enter with a 13-2 record whereas the Fighting Irish are 13-1. Unfortunately for all those Notre Dame fans I’m taking Cincinnati tonight to win by at least 5 at home.
Entering this matchup the BearCats two loses have each come by one point. This team could easily be 15-0 right now if things would have swung a different direction. I think the real difference in this one is that the BearCats are going to bounce back fresh off a loss. Not to mention they really need it, from here on out their schedule only gets tougher.
This marks the first game Notre Dame is set to play away from home, and in a non-neutral location. I think that home court advantage is going to extremely benefit Cincinnati. It will give them the opportunity to control the tempo and have the crowd behind them when they do it. A key matchup I like in this game is how much the Irish rely on their point per possession average. Notre Dame is 4th in the country average 1.2 points per ball possession. An average I expect to drop after this one. The BearCats have been limiting opponents to 0.81 points per possession, 3rd best in the country at doing so.
When comparing these two teams, Cincinnati in my mind is the much more well rounded. They are 2nd in the nation grabbing 44.5 rebounds per game; and 5th averaging 16.2 offensive boards. While even if teams are getting rebounds against them they average 6.7 blocks per game (6th in the country). This team thrives on playing a solid defensive game and are keeping opponents to an average of 57.4 points (4th overall). I attribute this to the fact they are great at getting in the shooters face, limiting teams to 35.7 shooting percentage. An important stat that could decide the game tonight; Notre Dame enters shooting 51.5% from the floor and rely on this too win games. Unfortunately I just can’t see them shooting that percentage tonight in their first road game, against this tough Cincinnati defense.
This is the first real challenge for the Irish this season. Given the fact the BearCats are fresh off a loss I like them to come out hot and test the conditioning and perseverance of Notre Dame. Ultimately I see the BearCats winning this matchup with the difference being the home crowd and a strong defense.
TRENDS
NOTRE DAME
- 0-4 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5-6 points in the last 3 seasons
- 6-11 against the spread when playing with 1 days or less rest in the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI
- 4-2 against the spread after allowing 60 points or less this season
- 2-0 against the spread versus good offensive teams averaging 77 points or more per game this season
- 3-1 straight up against Notre Dame since 1997
FINAL – FIGHTING IRISH 65 – BEARCATS 73