North Carolina vs Virginia NCAA 2013

ACC DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS VS VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (-2.5) 

ODDS: BET365

This should be the most exciting game on Sunday. Both these schools enter this matchup with identical 10-3 records. I expect this game to turn into a classic battle of North Carolina offense versus Virginia defense. 

Carolina walks into this matchup averaging 83.4 points per game (4th in the country). They are undoubtedly a high scoring team that relies on field goal attempts. What I am really looking back at is how the Tar Heels played against #1 ranked Indiana a couple weeks ago. They lost 83-59 and although Virginia is no scoring machine they do play very similar defensively. Something that I think greatly influences this game. With the Cavaliers at home, they will not only have the chance to control the crowd, but also the pace.

If I know anything about this Virginia team they are going to slow this game down. They are 5th in the country allowing opponents to hit only 35.3% of their field goals. While giving up an average of only 50.7 points per game (2nd in the country). This team thrives on their defensive play to give them breaks on offense. They have only scored more than 80 points in 2 of their 12 games this season. While the Tar Heels are averaging 88.5 points per game in their last 4. 

North Carolina relies far to much on ball possession and field goal attempts for them to win this game. On average they shoot the ball 69 times per game. I assure you they won’t reach that mark in this game since the Cavaliers defense is only allowing an average of 51 attempted shots on defense per game. Virginia is going to slow this match down and make the Tar Heels work for every basket. When the clock begins to wind down I see the Cavaliers defense to begin to play them dividends. Take Virginia and their ACC best defense at home to limit this Tar Heels high scoring offense. 

TRENDS 

NORTH CAROLINA 

VIRGINIA 

• 6-1 against the spread in all home games this season
• 21-8 as favourites of 3 points or less since 1997
• 4-0 against the spread this season when facing a team with a winning record