ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE MATCHUP
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (+11.5) VS #2 DUKE BLUE DEVILS
This is the first of two meetings between these ACC rivals this season. North Carolina (16-7) is trying to prevent dropping back-to-back games for only the 2nd time this season, while with a win Duke (21-2) would extend their streak to 6 in a row. The ball is set to drop at 9PM EST in Cameron Indoor Stadium and will be nationally televised on ESPN.
For North Carolina this is the second of back-to-back games versus the best teams in the ACC. They are coming off a tough loss against #3 Miami, now they have to face Duke. The Tar Heels will have to play to their strengths to have a shot at taking down the Blue Devils. Look for North Carolina to play the possession game, make good passes leading to open shots, and crash the offensive boards. They are near the best in the nation in all of these statistical categories. Offensively they put up 78.3 PPG (8th), combine for 18 assists per game (2nd) and take down an average of 14.8 offensive rebounds a game (7th). These are the key things I will be watching for when these two teams face off tonight. If the Tar Heels can succeed in these areas, I expect it to be a much closer result than 11 points.
The other game changer I see in this game is Mason Plumlee. If the Tar Heels can do a reasonable job at containing him, it will be like chopping off one of Duke’s legs. He is not only leading the Blue Devils, but is averaging the 2nd most PPG (18.2) and RPB (10.6) in the ACC. If North Carolina can do a reasonable job at covering him and not get into foul trouble doing so, this will become anybodies game. On the Tar Heels side of the ball I will be watching Sophomore James Michael McAdoo. He is leading the team with 14.9 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per game and had a bad game against Miami. I am looking for him to bounce back in a big way, he should put up some nice numbers tonight. North Carolina might not win but they sure as hell will keep it closer than 11 points. Take the Tar Heels +11.5
TRENDS
NORTH CAROLINA
- 3-1 against the spread after all 80 points or more this season
- 7-2 against the spread off a loss against a conference rival the last 3 seasons
- 12-3 against the spread versus Duke since 1997
DUKE
- 1-7 against the spread the last 3 seasons when a favourite between 9.5-12 points
- 3-12 versus good offensive teams scoring 77 PPG or more the last 3 seasons
FINAL SCORE – TAR HEELS 71 – BLUE DEVILS 77