NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks 2014

posted in: 2014 NFL Picks | 0

With the regular season officially a wrap we can begin to look forward to our first weekend of playoff football. This upcoming weekend positions the Cardinals against the Panthers, Ravens vs Steelers, Bengals vs Colts and Lions vs Cowboys. Before jumping ahead into every matchup this weekend and who I’m favouring lets take a look at some pre-season predictions where my all time-record sits following three years of football handicapping.

Regular Season Wins – Chicago Bears – Over 8.5 wins  

Anyone who watched football this season should know the Bears finished nowhere near 9 wins this season. They finished with the worst record in the NFC North and have already cleaned shop firing both head coach Marc Trestman and GM Phil Emery. They had to be one of the most disappointing teams this past season given their pre-season expectations. Should be interesting to watch where Jay Culter lands in the offseason because a sneaking suspicion tells me that Chicago finished with the
guy. Its just too bad they’ll end up eating a majority of ridiculously expensive salary. Looks to see a totally different Bears team next season.

Regular Season Touchdown Leaders – Dez Bryant 15/1 


This proposition was minutes from paying out until Marshawn Lynch decided he’d score one more touchdown. Lynch finished the season one touchdown ahead of Dez with 17. Can’t help but say I’m a little disappointed given the great odds for Bryant to lead the league in this total pre-season, but breaking Cowboys records and catching six touchdowns in his final three weeks should all be things that make Dallas fans happy.

MVP – Aaron Rodgers – 7/1 

Pretty sure I nailed this pre-season prediction. Despite the fact the voting has yet to be placed, Rodgers had a spectacular season leading the Packers to their  6th straight playoff appearance. He has made officially attempted 418 passes and completed 36 touchdown at home since his last

interception; both which are NFL records. The last time he threw a pick in Lambeau dates back to the 2012 regular season. Entering the final weekend of the regular season BET365 was offering Rodgers as MVP at less than 2/1. The next most likely player to earn the award is J.J Watt but I’m sure that the fact Houston missed the playoffs and they played in a terrible AFC South all season should affect his chances. When they announce the MVP the night before the SuperBowl don’t be surprised when Rodgers number 12 gets called.

Closing out 2014 my regular season record settled at 39-28-1, marking my most productive season to date. I hit 58% of my predictions this season and improved my all-time record to 110-83-7. Symbolizing my third consecutive season making NFL predictions, and my third season finishing with a record above .500. As we step into January I’ll be looking to improve upon my 3-0 finish last season and see if I can continue to earn all you folks some much needed cash after christmas.

NFC WEST VS NFC SOUTH 















ARIZONA CARDINALS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (-5.5) 


ODDS: BET365 


Kicking off Wildcard weekend we see the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) entering Carolina to take on the Panthers (7-8-1) at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina officially became the first team to repeat as NFC South divisional champions and aim to win their third straight wildcard game. While the Cardinals make their first playoff appearance in five seasons, Carolina couldn’t be a better opponent to face. Since 2011, Arizona has a 2-0 record when facing the Panthers. Oddsmakers have listed the hosting Panthers as 5.5-point favourites with a total set of 38-points.

If there was a verb listed for how each team qualified for the playoffs this season Arizona’s would read “limped”. They didn’t just stumble into the post-season, they finished 2-4 in the final six weeks of the regular season and haven’t won a game since losing Drew Stanton under center. While it was expected he would make his return in time for this weekends game it was recently announced he needed surgery to heal his knee injury and Ryan Lindley would start. The same Lindley that in nine career starts has throw only two touchdowns, eleven interceptions and has an average quarterback rating of less than forty this season. But thats only the beginning of the Cardinals problems. Stellar defensive play that propelled them to victory early in the season has fallen apart. In the last three games Arizona has allowed an average of 20 points per game, are allowing 180 rushing yards per game, and are giving up a league worst total of 423 yards per game. Their offensive struggles has transitioned into major minutes for their defense which has resulted not just in poor performance, but an extended list of injuries. Entering this weekend Antonio Cromartie is nursing an ankle injury, Patrick Peterson a concussion, and Calais Campbell a hip injury; and that only scratches the injury report surface. Having to make the trip to Carolina and face a Panthers team that is a red hot 4-1 in their last five starts does not look good.

After a 3-8-1 start the Panthers caught fire down the stretch and won the worst division in football. Despite a losing record Carolina looks much like they found their form from last season. They are holding opponents to an average of 267 total yards per game, 4th best in the league the last three weeks. While allowing only 11 points per game along the way, second best to only Seattle. With the Panthers defense playing much like the Cardinals early in the season, and Arizona’s offense struggling to find rhythm, Carolina should have no troubles running away with this game; literally. Carolina has been averaging 175 rushing yards per game in their last three and can thank Cam Newton to that. He has ran for at least 50 yards an a touchdown across the same span while posting a quarterback rating no lower than 82. Leading me to believe that the cat will get the better of the bird once again this weekend.

TRENDS 


ARIZONA 

  • 0-1 against the spread versus NFC South division opponents this season
  • 3-6 off a loss against a divisional rival the last three seasons 
  • 1-4 straight up off a divisional game this season 
CAROLINA 
  • 3-0 straight up off a win against a divisional rival this season
  • 5-2 against the spread when playing on saturday since 1992
  • 2-0 against the spread in the wildcard round of the playoffs since 1992 
FINAL SCORE – CARDINALS 13 – PANTHERS 27 

AFC NORTH DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 















BALTIMORE RAVENS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) 


ODDS: BET365 
The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) and Baltimore Ravens (10-6) are set to clash for a third time this season when we kick-off wildcard weekend. Entering this game the season series between these two is split down the middle. The first matchup in week two Baltimore won by 20 points, while Pittsburgh won their week nine showdown by 20. As usual Oddsmakers are expecting an all out dogfight for this matchup with the Steelers being listed as only 3-point favourites at Heinz field.

For much of the season my predictions and gut instinct has stood behind Baltimore either covering or beating the spread. But this weekend’s matchup against the Steelers does not look favourable. Pittsburgh enters this matchup on a four game winning streak and suffered only two losses at home all season. They defeated division rivals Cincinnati twice in their final four games to secure the AFC North division title and if you find yourself discussing the most potent offensive teams in the league this season, their name should be on that list. The Steelers finished the season one of the five teams in the league averaging over 30 points per game at home. Nobody has been able to stop Ben Rothelisburger at home and Baltimore seems unlikely to become the first. The Ravens enter this matchup boasting one of the weakest secondaries in all of football. They are allowing over 275 passing yards per game away from home this season and should get lit up like a chirstmas tree once again this weekend. Ben Roethlisberger has the Steelers averaging a league best 342 passing yards per game at home this season. That’s 30 more yards than the next best offensive team at home in the entire league. If I was a Baltimore fan I would be terrified for this weekends matchup. While the AFC North has a strong history of producing close games, Pittsburgh has been riding the wave of victory lately and it doesn’t look to me like that wave is going to be ending anytime soon.

There has been much speculation revolving around whether Le’Veon Bell suits up this weekend. Several reports released on Friday have him not healthy enough to play, but all I can think is do they really need him to win this game? Wide receiver Antonio Brown finished the regular season with a heaping 129 receptions. Exactly 14 shy of Marvin Harrison’s single season reception record, and good enough for second most in a single season all time. With Brown cementing himself as one of  the most difficult receivers in the league to cover, Roethlisberger completing passes to 14 different receivers this season and finishing the year with nearly a 6/1 touchdown to interception ratio at home, the Steelers should run away with this game. Baltimore will need to pressure Big Ben into mistakes and force turnovers if their swiss cheese secondary has any chance of winning this game, but I just don’t see that happening. The Steelers allowed only 33 sacks all season and finished with the 7th fewest quarterback hits in the entire league. Don’t be a fool, take the Steelers to cover a field goal with ease this weekend.

TRENDS 


BALTIMORE 

  • 6-11 against the spread versus divisional opponents the last three seasons
  • 4-8 against the spread versus conference opponents this season
  • 8-13 straight up as an underdog the last three seasons 
PITTSBURGH 
  • 4-0 against the spread as a home favourite of 3 points or less this season 
  • 8-2 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last three years 
  • 5-0 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record this season 
FINAL SCORE – RAVENS 20 – STEELERS 26 


AFC NORTH VS AFC SOUTH 





CINCINNATI BENGALS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) 


ODDS: BET365 

The Indianapolis Colts (11-5) find themselves hosting the Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) in the second AFC Wildcard game this weekend. Indianapolis will be looking to repeat last years performance in a 45-44 victory over Kansas City in Lucas Oil Stadium, but fans will be hoping it doesn’t take nearly as long for Andrew Luck to find rhythm and put up some points. While the Bengals find themselves in a playoff position for a fourth consecutive season and are still looking for that first elusive playoff victory under the Andy Dalton and A.J Green era. Oddsmakers have listed the Colts as 3-point favourites for this AFC Wildcard matchup with a total set of 49-points.

Cincinnati entered Indianapolis in week seven this season and got absolutely obliterated 27-0. While the Bengals definitely learned a thing or two from that showing, claiming revenge this weekend seems unlikely to me. As I’ve already mentioned, Andy Dalton is one of a kind. Not only is the kid a ginger wearing a striped orange uniform, but he is officially the first quarterback in NFL history to lead his team into the playoffs in his first four seasons in the league. Unfortunately, in the first three games he has appeared in the Bengals have a combined 0-3 record; but this should come as no surprise when you look at his numbers. In three career post-season starts Dalton has laid serious eggs completing only one touchdown and six interceptions. His completion rate sits at a mediocre 56% and looks to be in serious trouble again this weekend. A.J missed practise again on Friday with concussion protocol and at this point he looks doubtful. Considering Green is Andy Dalton’s favourite target and the Colts defense finished 2nd in the league holding opponents to a 33% third down conversation percentage; this matchup could get ugly. This is a make or break game for Daltons career and I just haven’t seen enough out of the guy to picture him beating the comeback kid Andrew Luck in his home dome.

Andrew Luck started out the 2014 regular season on pace to shatter several of Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colt records. He ultimately missed out on those records, but did end up finishing the season the only quarterback in the league to throw for over 4700 yards and 40 passing touchdowns. While Cincinnati has done a great job pressuring the passer and limiting space this season a guy like Luck always finds a way to get it done. The 19-5 home record the Colts hold since he took over the reigns speaks for itself. Every time his number is called he steps up to the plate and delivers. Just look back to last years Wild Card game, the Colts were down 38-10 against Kansas City and Luck lead them to the 2nd biggest comeback in NFL playoff history. Given the fact Indianapolis has lost only two games at home all season, and have never lost more than that in a single season since Luck took over; all signs point towards the Colts advancing. All I’m saying is don’t be afraid of the Colts this weekend, you might just get Lucky.

TRENDS 

CINCINNATI 

  • 1-5 in Wildcard games since 1983, second worst in the entire league 
  • 3-10 against the spread in playoff games since 1992 
  • 5-8 against the spread when revenging a loss against an opponent the last three seasons 
INDIANAPOLIS 
  • 19-8 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons
  • 4-1 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival this season
  • 11-0 against the spread in home games when the total is between 42.5-49 points the last three seasons 
FINAL SCORE – BENGALS 26 – COLTS 33 


NFC NORTH VS NFC EAST 





DETROIT LIONS (+6.5) VS DALLAS COWBOYS 


ODDS: BET365 

The Dallas Cowboys (12-4) are set to host their first playoff game since 2009 when they welcome the Detroit Lions (10-6) into town. While that might seem like a long time for Cowboys fans, this is only the second playoff appearance for the visiting Lions in the last fourteen years. The last time these two teams squared off was in 2013 and Detroit narrowly avoided defeat winning 31-30 at home. This time around it is the Cowboys turn to host and Oddsmakers are listing them as 6.5-point favourites for the final Wildcard matchup game of the weekend.

Dallas has been running all over everybody this season, but if anyone is capable of stopping that it is this Lions roster. Detroit finished the season with the best run defense in the league giving up less than 70 yards per game. With Cowboys offensive tackle Doug Free listed as doubtful after practise on friday, and Ndamukong Suh winning his appeal for stepping on Aaron Rodgers, Dallas could struggle for their first time all season in running the ball. Not to mention the Lions finished 8th in sacks this season with 42, start considering the fact Tony Romo’s protection could be challenged as well. This has all the makings to be a classic matchup of strength versus strength. I’m counting on the Lions to keep this a low scoring affair and if they succeed history states they should keep this one close. Every single loss the Cowboys have suffered this season they failed to score more than 17 points. While Detroit is an impressive 8-2 this season when holding opponents to less than 20 points this season.

The Cowboys defense had to be one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 regular season. Pre-season expectations were set embarrassingly low, and they proved doubters wrong rounding out the year in the middle of the pack. They finished the season the only team undefeated on the road but playing at AT&T Stadium has been a different story. They enter this matchup giving up nearly three touchdowns per game at home, and rank amongst the worst in the league on third downs allowing opposing teams to convert nearly 46% of the time. With the Lions closing out the regular season winners in four of their last five and averaging nearly 25 points per game across the same span this game should result in a closer score than several people expect. Look for both Matthew Stafford and Megatron to step up to the plate. In their only other playoff game together they connected for 211 yards and two touchdowns on twelve catches.

TRENDS 


DETROIT  

  • 1-0 against the spread versus NFC East opponents this season
  • 4-1 straight up off a divisional game this season
  • 9-3 straight up against conference opponents this season 
DALLAS 
  • 2-4 against the spread versus NFC North opponents the last three seasons 
  • 4-7 against the spread where the total is between 45.5 points and 49 the last three seasons
  • 11-17 against the spread as a favourite the last three seasons 
FINAL SCORE – LIONS 20 – COWBOYS 24