NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks 2013

With the regular season officially a wrap we can now step forward into 2014 and playoff football. Four teams have earned themselves a bye this upcoming weekend (Carolina, Seattle, Denver, New England) while all the rest will take the field on saturday or sunday. My record for the 2013 season concluded at 33-29-3, picking winners 53% of time, and although it may not seem impressive after starting 8-15-1 I am quite content. Hopefully I can continue my hot streak in the New Year, lets take a look at the matchup’s this weekend.

WILDCARD – AFC WEST VS AFC SOUTH 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 


ODDS: BET365 


The Indianapolis Colts (11-5) will play wildcard weekend for the second consecutive year; only this time around they face off against the Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) and find themselves with home field advantage. The Chiefs came flying out the gate with a 9-0 record this year but since have been stumbling losing five of their last seven. As for Indianapolis, they aim to win their 4th in a row and second game against Kansas City this year. Oddsmakers have officially listed the Colts as 2.5-point favourites with a total set of 46.5 points.

Andrew Luck and the Colts aim to build off their playoff experience from last season when they take on Andy Reid and the Chiefs Saturday afternoon. Last year Indianapolis could muster only three field goals in the playoffs and ultimately lost against the Superbowl Champions Baltimore Ravens. If you look close the Colts might be only a year removed from this loss; but Kansas City matches up very similarly to last years Ravens. This is a very stout defensive team and thrive off turnovers; they finished 2nd in the league behind only Seattle with a +18 turnover margin this year.

Watch for Kansas City to have a wide arrange of blitz packages lined up for Andrew Luck this weekend. The Colts have been one of the strongest teams in the league at protecting their quarterback this season; but the Chiefs finished the year with 47 sacks (2.9 per game) and at one point were the most feared defensive team in the league. Much of their struggles began when Tamba Hali and Justin Houston suffered injuries; these guys are imperative to the Chiefs pass rush with them both expected to be back in the lineup I expect we see the tenacious defense that was so successful early in the season.

Expect the Chiefs to do what they have done all year, hand the ball off to Jamal Charles. He finished the season averaging 132 yards per game from scrimmage and tallied a ridiculous 19 touchdowns. If they can get him moving and extend their drive times it will not only earn them valuable points but keep Luck and the Colts offense off the field. This game should turn out to be a real nail biter but in the end the Chiefs should get revenge for their week 16 loss.

TRENDS 


KANSAS CITY 

• 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 road games
• 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as a road underdog between 0.5-3 points

WILDCARD – NFC SOUTH VS NFC EAST 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) 


ODDS: BET365


The Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) will hold their first playoff game since 2011 when they welcome the New Orleans Saints (11-5) into Lincoln Financial Field Saturday evening. The Saints had a great start to their 2013 season, but finished a combined 2-3 in their last 5 weeks. As for the Eagles, they stumbled out the gate going 3-5 but finished the final 8 weeks strong with a 7-1 record. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Eagles as 2.5-point favourites with a total of 54.5 points.

Not many teams enter the playoffs with a better record in the last 8 weeks than the Eagles. They have been lighting up their opponents and despite New Orleans having the ability to do the same, this just isn’t the same team on the road. In the Saints 8 games played away from the SuperDome this year they went 3-5 and allowed an average of 22.3 points per game. Compare that to their 8-0 record at home while giving up 15.6 points per game, its plainly visible when playing away they struggle. Expect Philadelphia to take full advantage of that this weekend.

While Nick Foles is clearly no Peyton Manning, I think he deserves to be a serious candidate for MVP this season. After taking over the reins of this offense he has been nothing short of magnificent throwing for 27 touchdowns over only 2 interceptions; and has rushed. His stellar play has lead the Eagles not only to a 9-2 record with him under center but back to the playoffs. If anyone can take down the Saints its this man; and I predict he does just that. Continuing to prove he deserves to be a starting quarterback in the NFL and warrants respect as one of the NFL elite.

TRENDS


NEW ORLEANS

• 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 saturday games
• 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win 
• 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as a road underdog 
• 3-9 versus non divisional opponents 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7) 


ODDS: BET365 


The Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) make their third straight playoff appearance this Sunday when they welcome the San Diego Chargers (9-7) into Paul Brown Stadium. They swagger into game with a 5-1 record in their last six games and are fresh off a demolishing of last year’s SuperBowl Champion. As for San Diego, they had possibly the hardest road to the post-season; after starting 4-6 they fought adversity and finished 5-1 beating Denver once and Kansas City twice along the way. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Bengals as 7-point favourites for this game with an over/under set at 46.5.

People are often caught saying that “third time’s a charm,” I believe for Cincinnati this statement is true. In the last two years they have faced off against Houston in the first round and lost; but where my focus lies is both those games were played on the road. This time around the Bengals will be the ones with home field advantage and I expect this will greatly influence the outcome. The Bengals not only have an untarnished record of 8-0 when playing at home this season, but they have been obliterating teams along the way. In those eight games they are averaging 34 points per game and winning by a ridiculous average of 18 points! Consider this, and the fact they have taken down Green Bay, Indianapolis and New England all in Paul Brown Stadium this season, it seems almost certain that San Diego’s Cinderella story will come to an end this weekend.

Andy Dalton and A.J Green have officially become the first quarterback/wide receiver team-mates to make the post-season in their first three consecutive years in the league. They have created some of the best rapport in the entire league and are amongst the most feared tandem’s in the NFL. Yet in their last two playoff appearances they have combined for only 128 yards and 0 touchdowns. Expect for it to be different this time around; in the last three home games these two have combined for 4 touchdowns and 230 yards. With the Chargers ending the season 29th in the league against the pass giving up an average of 258 yards per game, a big performance from both these guys seem inevitable.

TRENDS 


SAN DEIGO

• 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games versus Cincinnati 
• 2-5 in their last 7 game one’s 

NFC WEST VS NFC NORTH 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3) 

ODDS: BET365

The Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) square off this Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) in a rematch of last years NFC conference game. It took a week 17 return from Aaron Rodgers and a win for Green Bay to secure a spot in this years playoffs. While the 49ers seem to be reaching stride at just the right time, they enter the playoffs on a 6 game win streak. Oddsmakers have listed the visiting 49ers as 3-point favourites with a total set of 48 points for this game. 

During the playoffs last year when these teams met it was Colin Kaepernick’s coming out party. He threw for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns, but ultimately won the game with his legs running for a record 181 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 carries. This weekend I see three major factors why history won’t repeat itself, and why Green Bay should win this football game. Firstly, Kaepernick has a full season under center for the 49ers which is great for his experience, but it has also given teams the opportunity to see his playing style. Last year when Green Bay met them in the playoffs Kaepernick was still relatively unknown, there was barely any game film on him, and teams hadn’t quite figured out how to contain him. This time around there is an abundance of film showing his weaknesses and I fully expect Mike McCarthy to have a masterful defensive scheme to expose them. The second reason I like the Packers is because they are playing at home; the last two meetings between these teams have taken place at Candlestick Park, not at Lambeau Field. Home Field advantage always plays a large factor in the playoffs, I expect this weekend to be no different. My final reasoning behind the Packers winning is revenge; they have lost their last three games versus the 49ers, and I assure you those loses are fresh in the minds of this team. 

Its no secret how the 49ers plan on willing this game. They are going to run the ball and play tight defense. These are going to be the biggest hurdles the Packers will have to face and I anticipate that they find solutions. I have no doubt in my mind this will be an extremely close game, it just seems to difficult to bet against a healthy Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers underdogs at Lambeau Field. 

TRENDS 

SAN FRANCISCO

• 5-12-2 against the spread in their last 19 games versus Green Bay
• 1-8 straight up in their last 9 games when playing on the road versus Green Bay
• 1-3 away off a straight up against the spread win versus divisional opponent

GREEN BAY 

• 17-7 against the spread in their last 24 games versus teams with winning records
• 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games as a favourite 
• 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as a home favourite 
• 6-1 off divisional game versus team off straight up against the spread win
• 7-3 with revenge versus opponent of straight up win (2-0 when at home)

FINAL SCORE – 49ERS 27 – PACKERS 30