2013 is here and what better way to kick it off than with Wildcard Weekend. The Playoffs are officially around the corner and we have 8 teams hitting the field this weekend to decide whether they have what it takes to win SuperBowl 49. Looking at the last 3 weeks my picks have been red hot, I am a combined 9-2-1, hitting 83% over this span. Overall I am 38-26-3 this season. This weekend I will break down each wildcard matchup and make my predictions for who advances towards Superbowl weekend, and who leaves packing.
ODDS: BET365
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games when facing Houston
- 5-17 against the spread after allowing 200+ rushing yards
- 111-143 against the spread versus conference opponents since 1992
- 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games against Cincinnati
- 18-7 against the spread versus conference opponents over the last 2 seasons
- 34-16 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses since 1992
- 20-6 against the spread on games played on grass over the last 2 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
ODDS: BET365
In the first playoff game of Andrew Luck’s career I like him to keep this Indianapolis team on pace and cover the 7 points. The Colts are flying high into this game winning 9 of their last 11, with both losses coming against playoff teams Houston and New England.
One of the key matchup’s to follow in this game will be Andrew Luck and how well he reads this Baltimore secondary. Luck has played well this season but he has thrown a total of 18 interceptions, with 7 of those 18 interceptions happening in their 5 losses this season. It is easy to see when he turns the ball over and makes mistakes the Colts haven’t done great this year. While that should be a concern against this historically tough secondary, I do’t think it will be a problem. Andrew Luck enters this game playing his best football all season. He hasn’t thrown an interception in 3 weeks and the Ravens are near the middle of the AFC in defensive interceptions with 13. I expect him to take care of the ball in this one and make the right choices.
Another thing I believe influences this matchup is that head coach Chuck Pagano is returning for his first game in Baltimore since being the defensive secondary coach for the Ravens. I feel like this is really going to influence this matchup. It gives the Colts offense an ace up the sleeve with Pagano’s history with behind the Baltimore secondary. Not to forget that Chuck Strong has motivated this team more than any other team in the league this season.
Its impossible for me to ignore the fact that Ray Lewis will be returning for this matchup and could be making his last start of his pro football career. He has been one of the best, if not thee best middle linebacker of all time. He hasn’t suited up since week 5 and the only question I have is how much rust he will be shaking off? Along with how much of a difference can he make for this Ravens team that enters the post-season losers in 4 of their last 5?
The Colts enter this matchup ranked 3rd in the AFC at converting 3rd downs. Luck has them doing so 42.8% of the time and will need to continue this trend if they want to keep this one close. I don’t expect Andrew Luck to carry his team into the next round of the playoffs but I see him keeping this one closer than 7 points.
TRENDS
INDIANAPOLIS
- 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games in Baltimore
- 8-0 against the spread in the last 8 games versus Baltimore
- 7-1 against the spread after winning 3 of their last 4
BALTIMORE
- 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games at home
- 0-6 against the spread at home off a road loss
- 1-8 straight up in their last 9 games versus Indianapolis
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+8) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
It should be a cold one in Lambeau and we all know it hurts just a little bit more when you get hit in the cold weather. With that being said it should be the Packers with the edge since the Vikings play inside a dome, but I actually think this is an advantage to Minnesota. This Vikings team is much more suited to play in the cold the weather. They run the ball great and play hard hitting defense. While the Packers rely far to much on the passing game and if it turns out to be a cold and slippery one, it could hurt their home field advantage.
- 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games
- 8-4-1 as a road dog over the last 2 seasons
- 0-2 against the spread versus Minnesota this season
NFC WILDCARD MATCHUP #2
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS
ODDS: BET365
This game will be a real treat. It marks the first time in 13 years that the Redskins host a playoff game at home. Both of these teams come in red hot, Seattle has won their last 5 games while the Redskins won their last 7. Both in large part have to thank the play of their rookie quarterbacks for where they are today. They both finished the season with passer ratings above 100, the first two rookie quarterbacks in NFL history to do so. Not to forget that RG III broke Cam Newtons rookie quarterback rushing record, while Russell Wilson tied Peyton Manning with touchdown passes in a rookie season at 26. Both these guys are elite but I have to give this game to the better all around and defensive team; Seattle.
The Seahawks enter this Wildcard matchup 6th against the pass and 10th against the rush. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points in over 5 weeks. Overall they have allowed an average of 15.3 points per game this season, while having one of the better scoring defenses in the league. Not to forget that they come into this game playing the best they have all year. Combine this information with the fact that they are welcoming back one of their best cornerbacks Brandon Browner back from his 4 game suspension; this should be a stout defense in this game.
For any indication of how this game might turn out lets rewind too week 5 for Seattle in Carolina. Cam Newton is the most similar quarterback to RG III in the league for his ability to rush for first downs while having the accuracy to hit his wide receivers for a 70 yard score. In week 5 when Seattle was 2-2 and still finding out their identity this secondary held Newton too 42 yards rushing and 141 yards at home. If they could do this in Carolina week 5, they should have no problem shutting down RG III. I can assure you Pete Carroll will have something unique drawn up in his blitz packages. He will slow down this offense, giving his diamond in the rough “Russell Wilson” all the time on offense he needs to clinch their first win away in the playoffs since 1983.
Marshawn Lynch has this Seattle offense ranked the 3rd best in the league at rushing the ball. The Redskins will have something to say about beast mode this weekend, they are 5th defensively against opposing running backs. I don’t expect them to have much luck with that though, he has rushed for at least 100 yards in his last 4 and has averaged only 16 touches in each game across that span. I like to think that major reason he has had so much wide open space and that skittles have been raining down is because of the play of rookie Wilson. He has thrown only 2 interceptions in his last 8 games and is picking apart secondaries like a seasoned veteran. This matchup will end up coming down to the final ticks. I see it ultimately being decided by who plays better defensively and who runs the ball better; for those reasons I have my money on Seattle.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 5-0 in their last 5 games
- 21-10 against the spread in all games over the last 2 seasons
- 9-1 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons
- 6-0 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons
- 0-2 in their last two playoff games versus Seattle