NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks 2012

posted in: 2012 NFL Picks | 0

2013 is here and what better way to kick it off than with Wildcard Weekend. The Playoffs are officially around the corner and we have 8 teams hitting the field this weekend to decide whether they have what it takes to win SuperBowl 49. Looking at the last 3 weeks my picks have been red hot, I am a combined 9-2-1, hitting 83% over this span. Overall I am 38-26-3 this season. This weekend I will break down each wildcard matchup and make my predictions for who advances towards Superbowl weekend, and who leaves packing.

AFC WILDCARD MATCHUP #1














CINCINNATI BENGALS VS HOUSTON TEXANS (-4.5) 


ODDS: BET365

This is a rematch of the 2011 AFC Wildcard matchup, Houston won 31-10 last year and I expect similar results this time around. It is only the 3rd time in NFL history that teams have met in wildcard playoffs in consecutive seasons. While all three times prior the team that won the first game, repeated as winner the second time around. 
Houston comes into this matchup stumbling losing 2 of their last 3. They lost their last two games and some would say that they are playing their worst football year. I would say that yes, they aren’t playing great, but they are still a much better team than what they were last season. Last year Houston finished the season off ranked 29th defensively against the rush, and 30th against pass. This time around their defense has matured, they finished the 2012 campaign 16th against the pass and 7th against the rush. I expect to see a big defensive performance from Houston and them to step out ready for the challenge. 
Now as much as Houston defense has gotten better so has the Bengals offense. Andy Dalton and A.J Green had another year to mature together and are one of the better tandems in the league, proving almost unstoppable. Last year this defense held them to 47 yards on 5 catches, I expect a similar performance in Texas this weekend.
If this game turns out to be a low scoring affair then the Bengals won’t have a chance. Houston is keeping opponents to an average of 20.7 points per game, while Cincinnati has only 1 win this season while playing away and scoring less than 20 points. This will be an important trend to follow. 
We can’t miss the fact Houston has the probable defensive MVP on their side in this one. J.J Watt finished with 20.5 sacks in 2012 and has this Houston defense one of the most feared in the league. They are tied for 5th in the league with 44 sacks this season and should only improve on those numbers  given the Bengals this season have allowed the 7th most sacks (46). 
With all this being said, how many of you forgot that T.J Yates was the quarterback under centre for the Texans in last years Wildcard matchup? He went 11/20 with 159 yards and 1 TD. This time around Matt Schaub is healthy and will be leading the offense. He isn’t any Tom Brady but he is a step up from Yates and should put up better numbers than what Yates did. You can’t deny the chemistry him and Andre Johnson have created this season.
In recent history the 2009 New Orleans Saints entered the playoffs losing 3 of their last 4 games and guess where they ended up, SuperBowl Champions. Since 1990, teams that enter the post-season losing 3 or more games went on to win their first playoff game in 15 of 26 games. I really like Houston to win this weekend and advance to face the Patriots.

TRENDS 

BENGALS 
  • 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games when facing Houston 
  • 5-17 against the spread after allowing 200+ rushing yards
  • 111-143 against the spread versus conference opponents since 1992   
TEXANS 
  • 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games against Cincinnati
  • 18-7 against the spread versus conference opponents over the last 2 seasons
  • 34-16 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses since 1992 
  • 20-6 against the spread on games played on grass over the last 2 seasons
FINAL SCORE – CINCINNATI 17 – HOUSTON 27 
AFC WILDCARD MATCHUP #2


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS


ODDS: BET365


In the first playoff game of Andrew Luck’s career I like him to keep this Indianapolis team on pace and cover the 7 points. The Colts are flying high into this game winning 9 of their last 11, with both losses coming against playoff teams Houston and New England.

One of the key matchup’s to follow in this game will be Andrew Luck and how well he reads this Baltimore secondary. Luck has played well this season but he has thrown a total of 18 interceptions, with 7 of those 18 interceptions happening in their 5 losses this season. It is easy to see when he turns the ball over and makes mistakes the Colts haven’t done great this year. While that should be a concern against this historically tough secondary, I do’t think it will be a problem. Andrew Luck enters this game playing his best football all season. He hasn’t thrown an interception in 3 weeks and the Ravens are near the middle of the AFC in defensive interceptions with 13. I expect him to take care of the ball in this one and make the right choices.

Another thing I believe influences this matchup is that head coach Chuck Pagano is returning for his first game in Baltimore since being the defensive secondary coach for the Ravens. I feel like this is really going to influence this matchup. It gives the Colts offense an ace up the sleeve with Pagano’s history with behind the Baltimore secondary. Not to forget that Chuck Strong has motivated this team more than any other team in the league this season.

Its impossible for me to ignore the fact that Ray Lewis will be returning for this matchup and could be making his last start of his pro football career. He has been one of the best, if not thee best middle linebacker of all time. He hasn’t suited up since week 5 and the only question I have is how much rust he will be shaking off? Along with how much of a difference can he make for this Ravens team that enters the post-season losers in 4 of their last 5?

The Colts enter this matchup ranked 3rd in the AFC at converting 3rd downs. Luck has them doing so 42.8% of the time and will need to continue this trend if they want to keep this one close. I don’t expect Andrew Luck to carry his team into the next round of the playoffs but I see him keeping this one closer than 7 points.

TRENDS 


INDIANAPOLIS 

  • 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games in Baltimore 
  • 8-0 against the spread in the last 8 games versus Baltimore 
  • 7-1 against the spread after winning 3 of their last 4   

BALTIMORE 

  • 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games at home
  • 0-6 against the spread at home off a road loss
  • 1-8 straight up in their last 9 games versus Indianapolis 
FINAL – COLTS 21 – BALTIMORE 26



NFC WILDCARD MATCHUP #1






















MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+8) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS

ODDS: BET365

In a rematch of last weekends game I like the Vikings to cover 8 points in Lambeau. They come into this matchup one of the hottest teams in the league. Frankly I think the Vikings could even win this game, never mind just covering the 8 points. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games and it isn’t like they have faced easy opponents. (Chicago, St. Louis, Houston, Green Bay) 
The key in this matchup is a no-brainer. It will once again be Adrian Peterson versus the Green Bay defense. He has completely torched this defense this season, once for 210 yards, then again for 199. This time around the Vikings enter with the 2nd best rushing offense in the league while Green Bay is ranking 17th in the league at stopping runners. If AP can get into space he could single handedly win this game for them. In games this season where he touches the ball at least 20 times the Vikings have a 8-1 record. This isn’t any mystery, look for them to establish a run game once again. Which should give Ponder time to use play action to look down field for open receivers.
Minnesota will come out ready to play in what should be a hard and physical football game. Besides handing the ball off they will need a strong defensive outing in order to compete in this game. The Packers are 11th at passing the ball this season. Aaron Rodgers will be relied upon in this one but they will need to keep him off his back to win. Coming into this one the Packers have allowed the 2nd most sacks on their quarterback in the league at 52. I can assure you Jared Allen will be calling his number all day, leading this Minnesota defense to improve on their 44 sacks this year, 5th most in the league.

It should be a cold one in Lambeau and we all know it hurts just a little bit more when you get hit in the cold weather. With that being said it should be the Packers with the edge since the Vikings play inside a dome, but I actually think this is an advantage to Minnesota. This Vikings team is much more suited to play in the cold the weather. They run the ball great and play hard hitting defense. While the Packers rely far to much on the passing game and if it turns out to be a cold and slippery one, it could hurt their home field advantage. 

If Adrian Peterson can get one carry of 10 yards or more on his first couple touches I assure you the Green Bay secondary will be saying “oh no, not again”. Either way I expect them to once again struggle with him. It is going to take strong defensive performance for both teams in this one. Which could ultimately decide who wins this matchup. 
TRENDS 

MINNESOTA 
  • 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games 
  • 8-4-1 as a road dog over the last 2 seasons
GREEN BAY 
  • 0-2 against the spread versus Minnesota this season
FINAL – VIKINGS 27 – PACKERS 30

NFC WILDCARD MATCHUP #2


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS


ODDS: BET365



This game will be a real treat. It marks the first time in 13 years that the Redskins host a playoff game at home. Both of these teams come in red hot, Seattle has won their last 5 games while the Redskins won their last 7. Both in large part have to thank the play of their rookie quarterbacks for where they are today. They both finished the season with passer ratings above 100, the first two rookie quarterbacks in NFL history to do so. Not to forget that RG III broke Cam Newtons rookie quarterback rushing record, while Russell Wilson tied Peyton Manning with touchdown passes in a rookie season at 26. Both these guys are elite but I have to give this game to the better all around and defensive team; Seattle.

The Seahawks enter this Wildcard matchup 6th against the pass and 10th against the rush. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points in over 5 weeks. Overall they have allowed an average of 15.3 points per game this season, while having one of the better scoring defenses in the league. Not to forget that they come into this game playing the best they have all year. Combine this information with the fact that they are welcoming back one of their best cornerbacks Brandon Browner back from his  4 game suspension; this should be a stout defense in this game.

For any indication of how this game might turn out lets rewind too week 5 for Seattle in Carolina. Cam Newton is the most similar quarterback to RG III in the league for his ability to rush for first downs while having the accuracy to hit his wide receivers for a 70 yard score. In week 5 when Seattle was 2-2 and still finding out their identity this secondary held Newton too 42 yards rushing and 141 yards at home. If they could do this in Carolina week 5, they should have no problem shutting down RG III. I can assure you Pete Carroll will have something unique drawn up in his blitz packages. He will slow down this offense, giving his diamond in the rough “Russell Wilson” all the time on offense he needs to clinch their first win away in the playoffs since 1983.

Marshawn Lynch has this Seattle offense ranked the 3rd best in the league at rushing the ball. The Redskins will have something to say about beast mode this weekend, they are 5th defensively against opposing running backs. I don’t expect them to have much luck with that though, he has rushed for at least 100 yards in his last 4 and has averaged only 16 touches in each game across that span. I like to think that major reason he has had so much wide open space and that skittles have been raining down is because of the play of rookie Wilson. He has thrown only 2 interceptions in his last 8 games and is picking apart secondaries like a seasoned veteran. This matchup will end up coming down to the final ticks. I see it ultimately being decided by who plays better defensively and who runs the ball better; for those reasons I have my money on Seattle.

TRENDS


SEATTLE

  • 5-0 in their last 5 games
  • 21-10 against the spread in all games over the last 2 seasons
  • 9-1 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons
  • 6-0 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons
WASHINGTON 
  • 0-2 in their last two playoff games versus Seattle
FINAL – SEAHAWKS 27 – REDSKINS 23