WEEK 17 RESULTS & RECAPS
Nothing like saving the worst for last. In week 17 my teaser predictions finished a combined 1-2, for my worst weekend all year. After 8 weeks of predictions my record is 20-7 entering the post-season. Here is an extremely short recap of how the games I picked last week turned out.
WIN – BALTIMORE (-7.5)
My only win of the weekend was no sweat. This game was over with shortly after it began. Baltimore rushed for over 400 yards and Cincinnati never really stood a chance in this game.
LOSS – CLEVELAND (-4)
This was stung a wee bit. Cleveland was in control of this matchup for majority of the game, but they had to do the most browns thing possible and give up two touchdowns in the 4th quarter, letting Pittsburgh back into the football game and to cover the 4-point tease.
LOSS – CHICAGO (+10.5)
It looked early on like Chicago had a chance to keep this one close. Then Aaron Rodgers decided to throw it into high gear and solidify his MVP run throwing for 4 touchdowns. While the defense allowed Chicago to score only three points the entire second half.
WILDCARD WEEKEND TEASER PLAYS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5)
6-POINT TEASE – BUFFALO (-0.5)
Everyone and their grandmother is going to have the Bills on a 6-point tease this weekend, and I’m okay with that. Indianapolis at 11-5 had the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL this year. They have faced several soft opponents, and still narrowly made the post-season. I think Buffalo playing their first home in post-season game since 1996 is huge, and they are finally allowing Bills Mafia into the stadium to take all the glory in. Situations like this don’t come along very often, you’ve got to capitalize on them when they do.
Look, Indianapolis has done some things extremely well this season. Of course, no conversation about the Colts is complete without talking about their defense.They finished top-10 in several important statistics including points allowed per game (10th), yards per game (8th), yards per rush (2nd), and interceptions (8th). This team has the making to disrupt a football game, but in order to succeed nearly every blueprint says getting pressure on the quarterback is detrimental. Or should I say all quarterbacks except Josh Allen. Allen faced the blitz on nearly 244 plays this season, the most in the NFL and 39 more times than the next quarterback. Still he has this Bills offense operating at an astonishing level this season.
Josh Allen has quietly jumped into elite quarterback status. The step that he took from 2019 to this season are astounding. His completion percentage improved from 58.8% to 69.2%, 4th best in the league this season. He nearly doubled his touchdown totals from 20 to 37, for 5th most in the league. But what might be most impressive was the jump he took in his overall quarterback rating. In 12 games during 2018 he averaged 67.9, in 16 games last season it was 85.3, this season he finished with an average of 107.2, 4th best in the NFL. Allen is often left off the list when discussing the best quarterbacks in the NFL, I think it is about time we start including his name in that talk.
I’m looking for the Bills offense to simply overpower the Colts and put this game to bed early. There is other things I like about this game, like the fact Philip Rivers is old, his arm has to be tired, and this is expected to be a cold weather game. While you also can’t overlook the fact Indianapolis is 22nd in the league when converting third-downs. Several things point towards the Bills in this spot, and oh boy I am all in.
FINAL – COLTS 17 – BILLS 36
CHICAGO BEARS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-10)
6-POINT TEASE – SAINTS (-4)
It seems like almost every year someone boasts “This is the Saints year”. Well with news that Drew Brees is likely finished after this season, I’m sure Saints fans are really hoping “this is the year”. But in order to have a shot at the Lombardi Trophy they have to take care of business this weekend, and send the Chicago Bears packing. This is something oddsmakers think should be fairly simple making them 10-point home favourites in this spot. While teasing them down to 4-point favourites is where I think value can be found.
Chicago went on a nice streak down the stretch to make the post-season, but to be completely transparent I think this is the worst team to make the playoffs. The Bears are quite clearly the imposter in the room. They are capable of beating the bad teams, and then turn around and get smoked by the good teams. Just look at this, the 8 teams they beat this season combined overall to a 43-85 record, or an average win percentage of 33%. In their 8 losses you ask? Well, those teams finished 69-43, or a combined average win percentage of 61%. Now, there is recency bias on this game as these two faced off earlier this season. In the first matchup New Orleans won 26-23. But to be fair, that game was in Chicago and Saints kicker Will Lutz did miss a field-goal.
We are only one year removed where the Saints were upset in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome by Minnesota in the Wildcard round. That memory has to be fresh and you can bet that Sean Payton will be fueling the fire with it this weekend.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve been a bandwagon Bears gambler the past few weeks. Their offense went from anemic to throwing up nearly 40 points per game. But it should be recognized that Trubisky and this offense were accomplishing all of it against some very terrible teams. In four of the last five weeks Chicago managed to score at least 30 points all but one game. Here is how weeks 13-17 looked for the Bears, and each of their opponents defensive rankings in average points allowed per game this year.
- Detroit – Scored 30 – 32nd in points allowed per game
- Houston – Scored 36 – 27th in points allowed per game
- Minnesota – Scored 33 – 29th in points allowed per game
- Jacksonville- Scored 41 – 31st in points allowed per game
- Green Bay – Scored 16 – 13th in points allowed per game
Chicago earned a playoff position because they quite literally faced four of the five worst defensive teams down the stretch. With New Orleans ranking top-5 in several important defensive categories including points allowed per game (5th), yards allowed per game (4th), and 2nd in completion percentage allowed (59.78%). I don’t see a world where the Bears keep this game close. Expect an extremely lopsided outcome from this game, Saints win big.
FINAL – BEARS 10 – SAINTS 34
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6)
6-POINT TEASE – STEELERS (PK)
I had high expectations for Cleveland in this exact same matchup last weekend, and they let me down. For that reason amongst several others, I think there is incredible value in taking Pittsburgh to win this game outright on Sunday night.
The Corona virus has ravished several NFL rosters this season. It now seems to be the Browns turn. This will be the third straight week that either important positional players or coaches will be out because of the virus. I’m sure most of you have heard by now that head coach Kevin Stefanski will not be coaching this game after a positive test. Stefanski is not only the head coach, but more importantly he is the offensive play caller. With him calling plays this season Cleveland averaged 25 points per game. Last season Cleveland averaged 20 PPG on average. Stefanski not only makes the important decisions on the field but is detrimental to Baker Mayfield and this teams offensive success. But just to place the cherry on top, starting left guard Joe Bitonio has Covid-19, and so does possibly their best cover corner Denzel Ward. So neither of these key Browns starters will be available. Oh, and Cleveland only just opened back up their practise facility on Friday because of this outbreak. So time to prepare for Pittsburgh will be short lived.
Pittsburgh went ice cold down the stretch, losing four of their last five games. But something that may have gotten lost is the fact the Steelers faced the most difficult schedules in regards to cancellations due to Covid-19 this season. They were forced into their bye at week 4 because of the Titans, and their Thanksgiving matchup with Baltimore was pushed requiring them play three games in a two week span. This team has been beat up, and without some of their most important players like Roethlisburgher and T.J Watt last weekend they still managed to keep the game close. I think Pittsburgh after some much needed rest will find a way to win this game.
All you Browns backers might not want to read this – Cleveland hasn’t wont a football game in Pittsburgh in nearly 20 years. No, that isn’t a typo. The last time Cleveland won a game in Pittsburgh was in 2003 with Kelly Holcomb at Quarterback. At that time Hines Ward was still catching passes in Pittsburgh. It must feel like an eternity for Browns fans, and they’ll probably have to wait at least one more year before snapping the streak. Pittsburgh is one of the best defensive teams in the NFL when playing at home this season. They closed out the season 3rd in points allowed per game (18.6), 1st in sacks per game (4.5), and 1st in third-down conversion percentage (30.28%) defensively at Heinz Field. Expect Pittsburgh to grab a lead early and never look back.