With the conclusion of the regular season and seventeen weeks of football my record officially finished below .500 for the first time in four years. At 29-34-1 I was exactly five games below .500 this season and about eleven games below the percentage of making profit this season. But you can’t control what has already happened, and I’m ready to look ahead to the playoffs with the opportunity of creating a profit. Below you’ll find which way I see each game slated for this weekend swaying – and who I suspect will advance onto the divisional round.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5) VS HOUSTON TEXANS
The Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) and Houston Texans (9-7) are set to square off in the first Wild-card game this weekend on Saturday at 4:35pm EST. This game is a rematch of a week one affair in which Kansas City won 27-20 in Houston. Oddsmakers listed the Chiefs as 1-point road favourites in week one, this time around they have listed them as slightly higher 2.5-point road favourites.
No team has been hotter down the stretch than the Kansas City Chiefs. They officially completed one of the most miraculous mid-season turn arounds most of us have ever seen. After starting the season 1-6 they won the final ten games of the regular season and step into the wild-card round at 11-6. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Houston also overcame controversy to succeed this season. They started 1-4, much like Kansas City – but finished 7-2 down the stretch to clinch the AFC South division and a Wildcard spot. But what is most impressive is this team did it all starting three different quarterbacks in the final nine games – and all after Arian Foster went down with injury.
Kansas City cleaned up their season by playing a strong defensive game and executing consistently offensively. I feel Alex Smith often gets labelled as a mediocre quarterback but his numbers this season show he has the ability to lead the Chiefs to the Superbowl. Since their last loss Smith has tossed 15 touchdown passes in relation to only 4 interceptions – while posting an average quarterback rating of 78.6. Not exactly mind blowing numbers but his completion percentage of 67% on the road this season (3rd best) is something to get excited over. Smith has the necessary weapons around him to beat any team in the league while he and Jeremy Maclin look to finally built some rapport. In the last six games they’ve connected for almost 80 yards per game and 6 touchdowns. Houston has the defense to pressure Smith in this game but you can’t ignore the fact he’s been in this situation several times in his career. While I fully expect Andy Reid will have a game plan drawn up to occupy J.J Watt.
Houston is a top tier defensive team this season, but the same cannot be said for their offense. Its been impressive what they’ve done with a carousel of quarterbacks but I’m expecting their season comes to an abrupt ending this weekend. Across their last nine games they faced only two teams that were inside the top ten in yards allowed per game – with every other one outside the numbers. They earned victories against teams like Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Tennessee – but got embarrassed by actual contenders in New England. Kansas City is going to be the toughest task their offense has faced in a number of weeks and I’m just not convinced they have the ability to sneak one out – even at home. Kansas City is 3rd in the league limiting opponents to an average of 17.9 points per game this season, and can thank that to a stingy third down defensive scheme. They’re limiting opponents to a 32% conversion percentage away from Arrowhead this season – thats second best in the league behind only Arizona.
Its going to take a mistake free performance for Houston to advance and that doesn’t seem likely. Kansas City is second behind only Carolina in turnover margin this season. They enter this weekend at a +14 and free safety Reggie Nelson finished the season with a total 8 interceptions – best in the league. Expect DeAndre Hopkins to be heavily covered in this game and the Texans lack of depth to become an issue as this game progresses.
TRENDS
KANSAS CITY
- 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
- 3-0 against the spread as a road favourite of 3-points or less this season
- 3-1 against the spread off a win against a divisional rival this season
HOUSTON
- 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as a home underdog
- 0-5 against the spread as a home underdog of 3-points or less the last three seasons
- 2-4 against the spread versus AFC West opponents the last three seasons
- 6-11 against the spread where the line is between +3 and -3 the last three seasons
LOOT VALUE – 850
FINAL SCORE – CHIEFS 24 – TEXANS 18
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2.5) VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) host division rivals Pittsburgh (10-6) for the second time in just over a month for this weekends Wildcard round. The last time they squared off Andy Dalton lasted five pass attempts and an interception before leaving the game with his current thumb injury. While the Steelers cruised to a 33-20 victory and kept their playoff hopes alive. With a Jets loss last weekend and a victory – Pittsburgh narrowly sneaked into the post-season. Yet oddsmakers have listed the Steelers as 2.5-point road favourites for this game, with a total set of 45.5 points.
Cincinnati is looking to end one of the longest playoff losing streaks in NFL history. Since 2005 the Bengals have qualified for the post-season a total of 7 times and they’ve yet to win a game in this playoff century. All I can say is the streak began in this exact scenario – a home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wildcard round which they lost 31-17. How fitting would it be for them to snap that streak this weekend against the foes that started it?
Pittsburgh was the definition of hot & cold this season. They had some big victories when needed but lost two critical games against division rivals Baltimore – and it nearly cost them a Wildcard position. None the less, they have earned themselves a playoff spot in consecutive seasons and once again a division rival stands between them and glory. Last season Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh 30-17 in the Wildcard round. But the Steelers can take solstice in the last time they played Cincinnati in the Wildcard round they advanced onto win the Superbowl – could this trend continue?
Pittsburgh has one of the revered and explosive offensive teams in the league. Ben Roethlisburgher has arguably the best wide receiver in the entire league with Antonio Brown, while Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton could be number ones on nearly any other team in the league. Yet the major concern for several folks entering this weekend is the health of the Steelers running game. DeAngelo Williams is day-to-day with an ankle injury, but we shouldn’t be overly concerned whether he plays or not. Pittsburgh is openly a pass heavy team – over 70% of their plays in the last three weeks have been pass plays and this strength should open running lanes for whomever is carrying the rock this weekend. The Steelers finished the season with only 388 rushing attempts this season, (24th fewest) yet they also finished with 100-200 yards more than teams around them in rushing attempts. This is because of Ben Roethlisburgher and their passing ability. With Pittsburgh being held under 20-points only once in the last 8 weeks and averaging nearly 27-points per game this season – Cincinnati is in for another tough January outing. They’re 0-2 in games this season when opponents score 27-points or more and likely need a lights out defensive performance to hold the Steelers offense in check.
No Andy Dalton at quarterback this weekend? Some Bengals fan might breathe a sign of relief if thats the case this weekend. Dalton has become the first quarterback to lead his team into the post-season in his first five seasons in the league – but has yet to win contest. Lo and behold A.J MacCarron. There’s a good chance he will start under center for the Bengals on Sunday and honestly this doesn’t bod well. The Bengals have the best shot at winning this game with Dalton making decisions. His 106 average passer rating finished 2nd behind on Russell Wilson this season and he lead Cincinnati to an average of 28-points per game – ranking them as one of the highest scoring teams when he’s calling the shots. But since MacCarron has taken over the inexperience has caused this offense to flounder – Cincinnati is averaging only 21-points per game in their last four. I’m not sure which is better – an injured Andy Dalton or a healthy rookie in MacCarron. Either way I’ve got all my marbles on Pittsburgh advancing this weekend, and extending that Cincinnati playoff losing streak to 8 games.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games in January
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 Saturday games
- 21-8 against the spread in their last 29 road games against a team with a winning home record
- 9-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last three seasons
CINCINNATI
- 0-6 against the spread in January games since 1992
- 6-19 against the spread versus Pittsburgh since 1992
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 Saturday games
LOOT VALUE – 900
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 32 – BENGALS 27
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+5)
The Minnesota Vikings (11-5) host their first playoff game in over five years when they welcome the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) into TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings will be looking to revenge their 38-7 loss at home against the Seahawks from week thirteen. While Seattle is looking to make it to a third straight Super Bowl appearance. Despite the Seahawks convincing victory against Minnesota earlier this season, Oddsmakers have listed Seattle as only 5-point road favourites, with a total set of 40-points expected.
Seattle started the season on their face, but that should have been expected after the 1-yard Superbowl play call mismanagement that cost them a second straight ring. After the dust settled on their 2-4 start, they closed out the season 8-2 and become the team we all knew they could be. Overall the biggest disappoint for this team has to be how the Max Unger/1st rounder trade for Jimmy Graham has turned out. Graham really never settled into this roster all season and the Seahawks just didn’t find a way to fit him into the scheme. It’ll be interesting to see how badly they miss that Pro Bowl center come this Superbowl run.
The bar was set low this season for Minnesota with around 7 expected wins. Yet here they are earning a Wildcard spot and the NFC North division title. After starting the season 2-2 they went on a five game win streak and showed people they are ready for success now. The 38 points they allowed Seattle to score earlier this season was a season high. You can be sure that this time around Minnesota will tighten up that number and have something to prove. While wind chills between 15-20 below zero could prove a beneficial advantage for this Vikings team.
Minnesota far exceeded expectations this season and much praise needs to be placed around the young talent. Rookie Eric Kendricks lead the defense in tackles this season by nearly 20. While sophomore Anthony Barr was 4th in tackles, but lead the team with three forced fumbles. These guys are major catalysts on this very young defensive squad and lead Minnesota to have one of their best defensive seasons in recent memory. The Vikings finished top five in points allowed per game, (18.9) red-zone scoring percentage, (45.45%) rushing touchdowns allowed, (7) and third down conversion percentage (34.47%). With strength in these areas Minnesota could have the pieces in place to knock Seattle off their game and this turn this into a real defensive performance. Whether that turns into a victory all depends on the legs of Adrian Peterson and the decision making of Teddy Bridgewater under center.
Nobody has played better down the stretch than Russell Wilson. He’s posted some incredible numbers and while several people are ready to jump onto the Seahawks bandwagon for another run – I feel the elements and style of football the Vikings play could effect their game plan. I picture this game turning into a really low scoring ground and pound football game. Only Carolina and Buffalo averaged more rushing yards per game on offense than Minnesota and Seattle this season. While both Seattle and Minnesota are very well known as being run stopping defensive teams. It’ll be a strength versus strength matchup this weekend and I’m looking for the Vikings to keep it close. Laying 5-points in Seattle’s favour after already facing the Vikings once in Minnesota this season, I just think you’ve gotta expect the Vikings to keep this close with revenge close to heart.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
- 29-36 against the spread on the road if not coming off a road loss
MINNESOTA
- 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games as a home underdog
- 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games following a straight up win
- 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games as underdogs between 3.5-10 points
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games at home versus a team with a winning road record
LOOT VALUE – 800
FINAL SCORE – SEAHAWKS 18 – VIKINGS 16
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-1)
The Washington Redskins (9-7) look to win their first playoff game in over ten years when they host the Green Bay Packers (10-6) this weekend. The last time these two teams met was week two of 2013 in Lambeau – where the Packers went on to win 38-20. What about in Washington you ask? The Redskins snuck out a 16-13 overtime victory in 2010. Oddsmakers are expecting yet another close matchup this weekend listing the Packers as 1-point road favourites, with the over/under set at 45 points.
Its been a tale of two stories for these franchises this season. Washington has far exceed expectations entering the season with 100/1 SuperBowl winning odds (27th in the entire league) and 15/1 to win the NFC East division. While the Packers entered 6/1 to win the Lombardi trophy this season, (2nd behind only Seattle) and now find themselves at 23/1 entering the Wildcard round (9th of 12 playoff teams). This game is quickly shaking up as the one in which nobody knows which way the wind will sway, and some could argue you’d have more luck simply throwing darts.
Who needs RG III when you’ve got Kirk Cousins? While many fans were disappointed to hear he would start the season, he has done nothing but win important games this season – especially down the stretch. Entering Wildcard Sunday he’s thrown twelve touchdowns and only one interception across the four game win streak Washington rides into the playoffs. The outcome of this matchup likely lies on the shoulders of this man this weekend and fans can breathe a sigh of relief knowing it won’t be his first January appearance. He played most of the 2nd half in Washington’s 2012 loss at home against the Seahawks after RG III went down with injury.
Aaron Rodgers is still an all-pro quarterback and one of the most talented at his position in the league, but he definitely isn’t attracting the hype which earned him MVP honours last season. It’s been a bumpy season for the Packers after starting the season 6-0 and I didn’t think I would ever say this – but their offense lacked the explosiveness all season we’ve come to expect. Rodgers threw three or more touchdowns in only three games this season, and hasn’t had a single one since the beginning of November. A far cry from the 8 games in which he threw three or more touchdowns in last season.
Green Bay has got to rely on their defense to keep them in this game. It’s been a major strength around this team all season long. They enter allowing just over 20-points per game (12th) and limited teams to a 35% third down conversion percentage this season (9th). If the Packers are hopeful to advance this weekend they’ll have to post a stellar defensive performance and Rodgers will have to pick up the slack on offense.
Looking at this game initially it screamed Green Bay. It’s plausible that they threw the last game of the season against Minnesota so they wouldn’t have to face the Seahawks isn’t it? Well, not so convincing to me anymore. Green Bay has struggled all season offensively to convert and score points, but the same cannot be said for Washington. While at home the Redskins have been one of the most efficient teams in the league. They closed out the season 5th on third down conversions (43.52%) and 1st in completion percentage (69.55%) in the entire league – all while scoring 34-points or more in each of their last three weeks. While on the opposite side of the ball their defense has been nothing short of phenomenal at home. They’re allowing 6 fewer points at home than on the road per game (18.6) and roll into the post-season with a turnover margin average of 1.7 in their last three games. This might be tough to swallow for the cheese heads – but Washington is going to win this game this weekend, and it might be in convincing fashion. As Kirk Cousins would say – you like that?
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 1-4 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games on grass
WASHINGTON
- 9-4 against the spread after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home underdog between 0.5-3 points
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games as a home underdog