The 2017 regular season was a major disappointment for my records. Week seventeen saw my picks finish 3-3. Atlanta, Minnesota and Dallas all covered and put me up to 3-0. While Washington, Pittsburgh and Seattle sunk my me to .500, and a final regular season record of 49-53-3 on the year. But none of that matters now, it is wildcard weekend and we have some great games on the slate this weekend Here are the teams I’ll be riding to advance to the divisional round.
TENNESSEE TITANS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8)
8-points is a lot of points in this situation, but I’m gladly going to lay it this weekend for a couple different reasons. Firstly, Tennessee had an extremely soft road schedule this season and still finished only 3-5. They earned victories over the Browns, Colts and Jaguars on the road this year. While their five losses came against the Texans, Dolphins, Steelers, Cardinals and 49ers. You can argue that Pittsburgh is only the legitimate team from that list, and in that contest they were blow out by 23-points.
Secondly, Marcus Mariota instills zero confidence in me. If anything he has regressed this season and is entering one of the most difficult stadiums in the league to play in. Arrowhead is always loud and the Chiefs are no strangers to being in this situation making the post-season for a 3rd straight season. While they did hit a major road bump in the middle of the season, they found their form down the stretch winning four straight. Tennessee is great defensively at containing the run, but I believe it is going to be less of what the Chiefs manage to do on offense in this game and more of what their defense accomplishes. Kansas City finished 2nd in the league with a +15 turnover differential.
This game to me has blowout written all over it. I can see Mariota making a few costly mistakes in his first ever playoff game while the absence of Demarco Murray in the backfield cannot go unnoticed. The Chiefs have crumbled at several points this season but a 6-2 record at home this year is encouraging.
FINAL SCORE – TITANS 13 – CHIEFS 28
ATLANTA FALCONS (+5.5) VS LOS ANGELES RAMS
I was really on the fence about this game. At first glance my heart was telling me Rams in this situation, but I think Atlanta is a sleeper and should not be under estimated in this situation. They are coming off a huge victory against division rivals Carolina and have plenty of playoff experience from only a season ago. This will be the first playoff game for plenty of the players on the Rams roster and while they have eye popping numbers offensively this season, they still have plenty to prove. I feel like the Rams offense is plenty of smoke and mirrors and almost all success flows through the ground game. Todd Gurley is a beast in the backfield and put Los Angeles on his back down the stretch. He put up insane numbers this year but the Falcons might have something to say about that this weekend. Atlanta finished the year 6th in the league giving up only 9 rushing touchdowns all year.
Atlanta has been under the radar all season because they have not found the offensive success they had last year. But one area that has vastly improved from the season past is their defense. They are enter the post-season ranked top ten in yards allowed per game, red-zone scoring, touchdowns per game and points per game. Their ability to succeed in this game lies directly behind stopping Todd Gurley. If the Falcons can contain him in both the passing and rushing game, then a heck of a lot more is going to be asked from Jared Goff, and that doesn’t sound promising. Don’t sleep on the Falcons, they’ve got the weapons to put up numbers while the Rams defense has their weaknessess. Los Angeles enters allowing an average of 122 rushing yards per game, (28th) 4.7 yards per carry, (30th) and touchdowns 58.70% of the time their opponents reach the red-zone (24th). Five and a half points is to many in this spot, give me the more experienced Falcons.
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 21 – RAMS 20
BUFFALO BILLS (+9) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This game was the toughest of the weekend for me. Buffalo earned a playoff spot for the first time in 19 years because of the Bengals last second victory over Baltimore. While the Jaguars defense has been terrorizing teams all season. But two things jump out to me when looking at these teams. Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor. Bortles had a stretch of good games this year but has the entire weight of this team on his shoulders. The success that Jacksonville has is directly correlated to his ability to make smart plays, and I have zero faith in that. In four seasons Bortles has thrown 64 interceptions as the Jaguars starting quarterback. He has made plenty of bonehead mistakes and unless the Jaguars find their running game early this should play right into the Bills hands. Buffalo finished the season 6th in the league with 16 total interceptions and 7th with a turnover differential of +9.
Blake Bortles is a turnover machine, Tyrod Tayler? Not so much. In three seasons as the Bills starting quarterback Taylor has thrown only 16 interceptions in 44 games. He is one of the best in the league at taking care of the football and that is concerning since Jacksonville has relied upon their defensive laurels all season. They won several games due to their ability to force turnovers and Taylor is not one to commit those mistakes. This chalks up to advantage Bills in my books.
Right now LeSean McCoy is questionable to play with an ankle injury. This will be an extremely important report to follow as Sunday approaches. If McCoy plays in this game I think the Bills have a legitimate shot at knocking off Jacksonville. Just ask yourself this, who is going to be more excited for this matchup? A Jacksonville team that has lost two straight games despite playing all their starters in week seventeen, or a Bills roster that hasn’t tasted the postseason in 19 years. I’m happy laying 9-points in this situations despite the fact I think Jacksonville will win this game.
FINAL SCORE – BILLS 13 – JAGUARS 19
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+6.5) VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
New Orleans have had the Panthers number this season. They are 2-0 versus their divisional rival, but those two victories also contained a completely different backfield than what Cam Newton will see on Sunday. New Orleans has been plagued with injuries since these two teams last met. Safety Kenny Vaccaro and middle linebacker A.J Klein are both on IR with season ending injuries. These two guys are huge playmakers on the defensive side of the ball for New Orleans. Don’t get me wrong, the Saints offense is spectacular, but it is on the defensive side of the ball where they made the largest leap this season. Carolina could turn back the clock on that with all their injuries.
Entering this game everyone is really high on the Saints. I get it, Alvin Kamara is easily offensive rookie of the season, not to mention the fact they are stacked on offense in nearly every aspect, but how about the Panthers defense? Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis comprise arguably the most talented linebacking core in the NFL and with the Saints offensive line entering 8th in the league allowing a sack 7.05% of their plays, protection for Brees could become a problem. The offense of New Orleans has easily won the last two matches – I think we see a much more prepared Panthers defense and secondary this time around.
This game will ride on the legs of Cam Newton, rookie Christian McCaffrey, and tight end Greg Olsen. In both of the first two meetings Newton failed to throw for more than 185 yards. He was average at best, but he also didn’t have his favourite target in Olsen. Olsen will vastly help Newton convert on 3rd down and long situations, an area that New Orleans has struggled with all season long. The Saints are allowing teams to convert nearly 42% of the time (27th in the league) on third down. While I do expect New Orleans to win this game, six and a half points is to many. This game should be decided by a field goal.