WEEK 8 RESULTS & RECAPS
After nearly a four year hiatus, my first week back making picks I finished a combined 2-1 on 6-point teasers. One thing never changes – betting for or against your favourite team, it feels like your on the right side 5% of the time, and the wrong side 95%.
LOSS – MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (PK)
It was the Dalvin Cook show early and often. He finished with four touchdowns and over 220 total yards from scrimmage. This was an embarrassing performance for the Packers. Minnesota just ran the ball down their throat and Green Bay couldn’t do anything to stop it. At a quick glance looks like Kirk Cousins had an average day with 160 passing yards, 1 touchdown and zero interceptions. But this advanced stat tells another story… Cousins had only 25 passing yards through the air – 135 were yards after the catch. His stats are inflated because of the players around him and their ability to make plays after the catch. But does this really matter? It just makes me dislike Cousins and that horrendous contract even more…either way my Minnesota Vikings tossed me my first loss of the year.
WIN – PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+10) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
Pittsburgh +10.5 cashed. The entire second half of this game was a rocking chair winner. With a pick-6 from Lamar to start the game, Pittsburgh got off to a hot start. But those were the only points they scored the entire first half. Despite having immense success running the ball on the ground, Baltimore decided to have Lamar throw the ball nearly 30 times and that is exactly what caused them to lose this game. Pittsburgh won outright, but I don’t think they had any business doing so. This was more of a poor coaching/play-calling game that kept the Steelers undefeated. I’ll be heavy on Baltimore to bounce back this week.
WIN – DALLAS COWBOYS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3)
My last teaser game of week eight – the Eagles -3. This game was tough to watch. It feels like the NFL is torturing putting the NFC East in prime-time games. These two combined for six turnovers – four of which were from the hands of Carson Wentz. With Dallas driving late in the game it looked like they had a chance to possibly win this game outright…. then DiNuchi fumbled and the Eagles took it the length of the field to go up by double digits. It was squeaky bum time throughout most of this game, but the Eagles pulled it out. I think I’ll be fading the NFC East moving forward.
WEEK NINE SIX POINT TEASERS
DENVER BRONCOS – VS ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5)
6 POINT TEASE – DENVER (+9.5)
Making the Atlanta Falcons over a field goal favourite at home against the Denver Broncos seems like a stretch. One of the first things that pops to mind when you think of Atlanta is offense threat. Matt Ryan pro bowl quarterback. Julio Jones soon to be hall of fame wide receiver. Calvin Ridley, breakout wide receiver with lightning speed and talent to be a the #1 wideout on most teams in the league. This team has exceptional talent on the offense, but their numbers don’t actually show that this year. They enter 14th averaging 26.1 points per game, and are nearly dead last in red-zone scoring at 53.33% (27th). With Ridley and Julio both nagged by injuries and Todd Gurley washed up, it’s tough to back Atlanta’s in this spot.
The Broncos are a far-cry from the defensive powerhouse we have seen in the past. But I’m actually looking at the other side of the football for them in this game. You heard it here first – Drew Lock and this offense will score at least 28 points on Sunday. Atlanta’s defense is so incredibly beat up, and they rank nearly dead last in multiple statistical categories through 8 weeks. They are giving up an average of 410 yards per game (28th), 6.6 yards per play (32nd), a 74.07% red-zone scoring (29th) and a 70.30% completion percentage (29th). There is multiple fractures on the defense, and with Denver finishing week eight on a strong note, I think that is carried over to this week against Atlanta.
While Denver +9.5 is great, don’t let it hold you back from paying for the hook to get up to +10 if you think that key number could be the difference. A field-goal+touchdown would be mighty nice; but I’m comfortable with +9.5 in this game as we are teasing through a touchdown with this move.
FINAL SCORE – DENVER 31 – FALCONS 26
HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5) VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
6 POINT TEASE – HOUSTON (-0.5)
This is the second and final time this season these two division rivals meet. In week five, Houston defeated Jacksonville 30-16. I think this week results in a very similar score and outcome.
Both these teams have had nearly two weeks of rest to prepare for this game. They both are coming off bye weeks, but one thing stands out – Gardner Minshew won’t be starting under centre for Jacksonville. Minshew is dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand, meaning rookie Jake Lutton will step in. Not seeing a single NFL snap, I don’t know what to expect from Lutton. But given the Jaguars history in drafting capable quarterback, I’m not very confident in their ability to win this game. They enter losers of six straight, with the last three being by double-digits.
At 1-6, Houston’s record tells a story. They are near the bottom in the league in standings, but they have one of the most talented quarterbacks in the entire league with DeSean Watson. It also makes me feel quite cozy inside knowing the Jaguars haven’t been able to stop a paper plane from reaching the end-zone this season. Their defense ranks 31st in the league allowing an average of 31.4 points per game, and are dead last in pressuring opposing quarterbacks – with only 6 total sacks this season.
Nobody has faced tougher competition then Houston this season, their opponents have a combined 32-18 this year. With Jacksonville seemingly already throwing their hat into the Trevor Lawerence sweepstakes, this has Houston written all over it. Teasing them from nearly a touchdown down through 6, 3.5 and 3, this bet offers a ton of value on the weekend.
FINAL SCORE – HOUSTON 26 – JACKSONVILLE 20
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1)
6 POINT TEASE – RAIDERS (+7)
Choo-Choo! Everyone aboard the “fade the Chargers train” I’m been onboard this for the last few weeks, it’s about time you all jump on with me.
Los Angeles in the last three weeks have had leads in every game by 17 or more points. Yet in each of those games, they have lost outright. I’m starting to believe this team is doing their best impression to shape-shift into the Atlanta Falcons. The record of every other team in the NFL this season when they have a lead of 17 or more points? 52-4. The Los Angeles Chargers? 0-3. Embarrassing.
Justin Herbert looks like a stud. He is breaking NFL passing records in his first few games, and SHOULD have wins against some of the best teams in the league. However his team keep blowing leads and at 2-5, they welcome division rivals Oakland into town this weekend. The Raiders, some could argue they have one of the best resumes at this point in the season, holding victories over the Chiefs and Saints. They have only one loss this season by more than a touchdown. Which is why I love teasing them up from a 1-point underdog this weekend though 3, 3.5 and 6 up to 7-point underdogs.
Last season both games played between this rivals were decided by 7-points or fewer. On paper both these teams matchup very similarly. I think the Chargers have more talent on their football team, but Oakland grinds out games and Anthony Lynn can’t seem to coach his way out of a paper bag this year. I’ll be looking for the experience of Jon Gruden to shine through. Expect Oakland to be well prepared and keep this one close.