Everyone Hates A Tease – Except The Sharp Sports Bettor
Here we are. Almost four years later I’m back and ready to provide you all with a new fresh outlook on the NFL. Those of you that have followed along in the past know that I primarily outlined four NFL games against the spread. This year I’ll be doing things a little differently, focusing mostly on teaser bets. For those of you that aren’t familiar with this type of bet, I will expand into further detail, but first – sign up at an online sports book. Unless you are flying to Vegas weekly or using an online book like bet365.com, making this type of wager won’t be available or accessible.
Understanding how a teaser bet works is simple – But utilizing them to your advantage involves a basic understanding of scoring and mathematics
Describing a teaser bet is simple; you are paying or forgoing better returns to buy points in your teams favour. Most sportsbooks offer three types of football teasers options, a 6-point, 6 1/2-point and 7-point teaser option. Directly put, you could turn a 8-point favourite into either a 2, 1.5 or 1 point favourite buying down the line. Or turn a 8-point underdog into a 14, 14.5 or 15 point underdog buying up the line.
This might seem simple enough, but something I have learned over time is betting on sports is a lot less about trends, comparing teams, and having that “gut” feeling one team will cover the number. It is a hell of a lot more about finding the right number and value in correlation to how you handicap the game. Lastly and most importantly, it is understanding the basic math behind betting on the NFL.
KEY NUMBERS, KEY NUMBERS AND MORE KEY NUMBERS
Any basic NFL football fan understands the concept of scoring within the game. A field goal is worth 3-points, a touchdown worth 6-points with the extra point following worth 1-point. Of course there is other methods of scoring such as 2-points for a safety, or the more popular missed extra points following a touchdown to result in only a 6-point change. Considering these key numbers and how scoring happens in the NFL, it is easy to understand that almost 14.5% of NFL games since 2006 have been decided by 3 points. While 9.2% of games have been decided by 7-points exactly. These two finishing scores combine for nearly 25% of all NFL game outcomes, one in every four games! They are the most common winning margins, makes sense when teams are commonly scoring by 3 or 7 points…doesn’t it?
By now the lightbulb should be going off. Of course any given Sunday has football games that result in other scores than 3 or 7 points. But more often than not the result of the wager you place comes back to getting the best number. This is especially true when we begin discussing teasing a NFL points spread.
HOW THE SQUARE SPORTS BETTOR WOULD TEASE
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+3) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3)
Take the line listed above into consideration. Seattle hosts the 49ers this weekend. The situation – after throwing a couple wobbly pops back with the boys you begin discussing this games outcomes. Everyone comes to agreement that Seattle will beat San Francisco this weekend, but to win the game by 3 or more points seems uncertain. Being a square and recreational bettor the boys convince you that maybe teasing the line is the best option. Turn Seattle from those 3-point favourites into a 3, 3.5 or 4-point underdog. This looks fantastic considering Vegas thinks Seattle should win the game this weekend by 3-points, you just ensured they can now lose by 4-points or fewer. This seems like a smart bet… or does it? In the world of teaser bets, this is one you should never make.
ITS ALL IN THE NUMBERS
You should rarely choose to tease a small favourite through to a small underdog for this reason – you are purchasing the exact same number multiple times. If Seattle wins by three, or loses by three, that game is still decided by three points. In teasing them from that 3-point favourite you are buying the numbers 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5 and 1 twice, while going through pick. With only 3.7% of NFL games being decided by 1-point, and 3.8% of NFL games being decided by 2-points – four of those points you just teased through only earned you a 15% likelihood of the games result actually landing on those numbers and you walking away a winner. For those of you who are interested in figuring out the exact probability of you cashing this ticket as a winner consider looking at wizardofodds. In taking Seattle as 3-point favourites, you have a 50/50 chance of winning in a mathematics world. By teasing them 6-points to 3-point underdogs, that increases your likelihood of cashing a winning ticket to only 60.43%.
HOW THE SHARP SPORTS BETTOR TEASES
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+6) VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6)
This line between Green Bay and Minnesota this weekend is the perfect teaser option. Whether you decide to tease Minnesota to larger dogs, or Green Bay to smaller favourites, on a line listed like this either side is good for action. By teasing Green Bay 6-points, you are buying the numbers 6, 5.5, 4, 4.5, 3, 3.5, 2, 2.5, 1, 0.5 and PK. With the key numbers sharps bettors always talk about in this situation being 3.5, and 3. The likelihood any NFL game finishes on one of the numbers between 1-6? 46.1%. Instead of paying to purchase the same number multiple times in a teaser stick to this simple rule – Only tease favourites of 6-points or larger, tease any underdog greater than 1-point. Betting through the key numbers, multiples of 3, 7, or a combination of either or will earn you a much better chance to return profit. Again wizardofodds proves this, teasing a 7-point favourite to a 1-point favourite has a mathematical probability of winning 70.51% of the time. That is over a 10% advantage in your pocket if you disregard the blokes telling you to tease Seattle as 3-point favourites.
Before you go racing to the book to lay a teaser bet, there is one more important piece of information to know. As you are buying points in your favour, the implied returns on your wager are greatly reduced. While teaser bets also require you to parlay at least two games together in order to have action. Placing a $10 wager on a single point spread outcome should return around $18-19 if you win; all depending on the juice that sports book has on the game. While a two game teaser bet of $10 and 6-points would cash $18.33. Of course the more games to parlay together on the teaser the larger payout, but that also includes a reduced probability of cashing that ticket. When I’m placing a teaser parlay I find 4-5 games is the sweet spot for me, but you can decide what works best for you. To start I will be doing analysis for 3 games of my choice weekly that I see strong teaser value in. Now that we’re all up to speed, let’s take a look at week 8 and the sides I’ll be eyeing up this weekend.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6)
6-POINT TEASE – PACKERS (PK)
I’m gonna hold my nose while I say this because I’m a Vikings fan, but Minnesota is the team that stinks of cheese this season. This marks the second and final meeting between these divisional rivals this season. When I first laid eyes on this line I was licking my chops, couldn’t wait to tease the Packers down to a pick.
Minnesota is currently last place in the NFC North. The way I look at it, about two or three more games before players start getting unloaded for draft picks and they turn focus towards next season. Green Bay on the other hand, they are atop the NFC North and proving doubters that their 13-3 record last season was no fluke. These two are on opposite sides of the spectrum and I expect that to be more than visible on Sunday.
Turnovers often decide football games and this one should be no different. Green Bay has proven to be the best team in football at taking care of the rock this season. Through seven weeks they have only two turnovers, fewest in the entire league. Minnesota on the other hand, they are 27th in the league 12 turnovers.
Despite the rest and Minnesota coming off their bye week, I don’t see a situation where they come into Lambeau field and beating the Packers. I could see them covering 6-points, but not winning outright. Thats why I love teasing this line down to a pick, all Green Bay has to do is win.
FINAL SCORE – MINNESOTA 23 – GREEN BAY 30
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+4) VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
6 POINT TEASE – PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+10)
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Another great division rivalry, maybe the best game of the weekend. When this game opened, Pittsburgh were 5.5-point underdogs. Sharps quickly snatched that line up, and pushed it all the way down to +4. But at this line, I’m still happy teasing the Steelers up 6-points, through the key numbers of 7 and 10, to 10-point underdogs in this matchup.
Lamar Jackson hasn’t looks anywhere near the MVP form he was in last season. He has struggled at points this year and I think he could be in for another difficult day on Sunday. Pittsburgh has one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and are amongst league leaders in pressuring the quarterback. They rank 1st in the league in sacks. Now we all know Lamar can escape that pressure, but finding open receivers downfield is another question. Pittsburgh is currently #1 in opponent pass completion percentage holding QB’s to a league low 58.42%.
Last season Baltimore swept the season series with Pittsburgh. They won both matches, but one thing is different this season – Ben Roethlisburgher is behind center. He missed both games against Baltimore last season, and this year he is showcasing that this offense has explosive talent at nearly every position. I’ll gladly take Pittsburgh +10 in this game. You play to win the football game, not cover the pointspread. I could see a scenario where Baltimore is up by more than 10, but the backdoor cover is always open when you have a ten point underdog.
FINAL SCORE – PITTSBURGH 23 – BALTIMORE 26
DALLAS COWBOYS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9)
6 POINT TEASE – EAGLES (-3)
Another divisional matchup, this time in the putrid NFC East. This division is the toilet bowl of the NFL, and we have to start accepting the idea that one of these teams is going to host a playoff game, and could have 7 or fewer wins.
Neither one of these teams has much to be proud about this season. But the Eagles are clearly the superior team in this situation, they have been decimated by injuries all year and I think this could be the get-right game for them. While the Cowboys are setting defensive records, in the way you don’t want to. If it wasn’t for the Falcons gifting them a victory, Dallas would be 1-6 right now.
Dallas is allowing an average of nearly 35 points per game. Worst in the league. Nearly 180 yards rushing per game. Worst in the league. While turning the ball over 16 times through seven weeks, most in the league. Oh, did I mention Ben DiNucci is starting at quarterback on Sunday? This game could turn into a disaster early for the Cowboys and Jerry Jones. Either way, I can’t wait to start hearing the nicknames for DiNuuuuuucciiii.
Taking the Eagles to win this game by 9 is difficult, but laying only 3-points and hoping they win by a field goal seems easy enough. For this matchup I asked myself this; in the upside-down world is there any scenario were the Cowboys could win this game? I don’t see it. I have a hard time seeing Dallas scoring 10-points. This defense is in shambles and the offense has fire power but without Dak Prescott they are hopeless. This bet is more fade the Cowboys than love the Eagles in this spot.