We have officially reached the end of the tunnel, and can see the light – September means football is back. The 2016 season is getting set to kickoff and with that means a whole new season of future bets. Can we expect to see Adrian Peterson win his 4th rushing title in 8 seasons? Will Cam Newton compliment his MVP winning season and be the first to win back-to-back since Peyton Manning? Or can the Browns finally break loose and crest that 8 win total for the first time in thirteen years? With the entire season still ahead of us plenty is left to be decided, and I simply cannot wait.
Last year was statistically my worst on record. My futures predictions went a total of 2-6, or more importantly 2-2 on my “sure-bet” predictions. While my “long-shot picks ended at a drastic 0-4. Adrian Peterson won the rushing title, while Julio Jones captured the most receiving yards for my two correct pre-season props. This season I’ll be looking to improve upon those numbers.
MOST PASSING YARDS – REGULAR SEASON
THE SMART WAGER – ANDREW LUCK – 11/1 (BET365)
Before you all jump to conclusions and disagree with this prediction, I’ll agree and say that the Colts offensive line is crap. They allowed him to get hit a total of 118 times last year, second most in the entire league. I’m looking at this wager strictly on the basis that Andrew Luck is only beginning to enter the prime of his career and while he has downside, the ceiling is far to tempting.
Ty Hilton, Philip Dorset, Donte Moncrief and Dwayne Allen are all healthy entering the season. It is hard to look past what was the 2015 for the Colts, but baring an injury to Luck for extended time I’m a firm believer he will contest for the most passing yards this season. In 2014 Luck averaged nearly 300 yards per game; placing him behind only Ben Roethlisburgher and Drew Brees.
If the Colts offensive line can keep Luck upright long enough this season, its not absurd to think he can capture his first passing yard title. The only question we have left to consider is will he stay healthy throughout the entire 2016 campaign.
THE LONG SHOT – DEREK CARR – 34/1 (BET365)
You might say I’m expecting bigger things from the Raiders than most, that is why I’ve got Carr as a long-shot to win the passing title. Oakland allowed the 4th fewest quarterback hits last season at 64, and Carr has the necessary weapons around him to begin succeeding now.
Amari Cooper has shown he has the talent to become an elite wide receiver in this league. While Michael Crabtree is arguably as good as it gets for a number two option on most offensive teams. There is no lack of talent surrounding Carr and he has a cannon for an arm that Raiders fans have missed since Rich Gannon. If Carr can continue progression and improve upon the ten 250 yard games or better he had last season, a passing title is not outside the question.
MOST RECEIVING YARDS – REGULAR SEASON
THE SMART WAGER – ANTONIO BROWN 4.5/1 (BET365)
Brown has the best odds out of all receivers this season in this category, and this should be no surprise. He fell only 37 yards shy of tying Julio Jones last season for the most yards in the league, all while playing in four games which Ben Roethlisburgher wasn’t under center.
Barring an injury to Roethlisburgher, Brown should be contest for this honour at the end of the season. In the last three seasons he has finished no worse than 2nd in receiving yards. While it hurts that Pittsburgh will be without Le’Veon Bell to start the season, and Martavis Bryant for much of the year due to suspension – this just tells me that Big Ben will be glancing over in Browns direction a lot more this year.
THE LONG SHOT – ALLEN ROBINSON – 29/1 (BET365)
Jaguars fans finally have the receiver they’ve always been looking for in Robinson. He torn it up last season becoming the first 1000 yard Jacksonville receiver since 2005. Yes that is correct – 2005. I’m not expecting any regression for Robinson this season and for him to rank amongst the elite in yards this season.
With Bortles having one more year under his belt to learn the playbook, and Allen Hurn turning into a receiving threat, Robinson should have no problem finding space again this season. He was able to average 17.5 yards per catch last season – best amongst wide receivers with 70 or more catches. Take a closer look at this guy, a receiving title is certainly within the realm of possibilities.
REGULAR SEASON WINS
THE SMART WAGER – BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 8.5 WINS – 1.68 (BET365)
Baltimore is heavily favoured each year by vegas to be a good football team, but reaching 9 wins is a long shot. Having to play in the tough AFC North division doesn’t help their cause. I expect both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to return to the playoffs this season, and someone has to be tagged a loser.
Steve Smith isn’t getting any younger, and I honestly can’t even name the guy carrying the ball on offense this season. Joe Flacco’s favourite play is throwing the ball downfield and praying for pass interference. The problem with that is their receiving corps lacks depth. I would be shocked if Steve Smith eclipsed 800 yards this season, or if Mike Wallace returned to his old form. The only leg Baltimore has to stand on is their defense, and they aren’t getting any younger in that category.
THE GOLDEN TICKET WINNER – ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 9.5 WINS – 1.50 (BET365)
The payout isn’t great on this wager but its as close to a layup you’ll find this season. Arizona had a terrific season last year. They got polished by Carolina in the conference championship, but that doesn’t erase the success they found during the regular season. With all their major pieces returning for yet another year and the offensive line getting beefed up on the offseason, I’m expecting the Cardinals reach for the NFC title this year.
Arizona kicks off the season hosting the Patriots which won’t be easy. But their next five games are against the Buccaneers, Bills, Rams, 49ers and Jets – not a breeze but far from a difficult stretch. Not to mention they won’t even have to deal with Tom Brady in week one against the Patriots. Arizona could easily start 6-0 again this season, and I’m ready to bet that going 4-8 in their last 12 games is more than attainable.
AP NFL DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
KHALIL MACK – 8/1 (BET365)
Khalil Mack is going to win defensive player of the year this season. He sits behind only JJ Watt and Von Miller in the list of favourites, and while Watt already has three of these under his belt, Mack is in a great position to earn his first.
Mack has game changing ability that few defensive players in the league possess. He single handedly beat Denver last year when he recorded 5 sacks in one game, and will only be tougher to cover this season given the Raiders offseason acquisitions. Signing Bruce Irving from Seattle and having Aldon Smith suit up for a full season is going to make it terribly difficult for teams to double team Mack. Oakland is going to be one of the most talented in the league pass rushing teams in the league this year, and Khalil Mack is going to be leading that charge.
Don’t be afraid to toss a little green on this bet. Watt is always a threat to repeat, but he is also a candidate for injury. If Mack can hold off injuries of his own and lead Oakland to the post-season for the first time since their 2002 Super Bowl run, expect to see him collect this honour at season’s end.
REGULAR SEASON TOUCHDOWN LEADER
ODELL BECKHAM JR – 15/1 (BET365)
I love the value this bet has. Sure their is several other plays ahead of Beckham expected to lead the league in touchdowns, but most are running backs and as we can all see the NFL is turning into a pass happy league. The ground and pound days are over seem over.
Last season was the first time since 2007 and the Randy Moss 23 touchdown season that a receiver earned most touchdowns in a season. 14 was the special number last year, and Odell sat only one touchdown shy of tying that total. Him and Eli Manning built some serious trust last year, the 132 targets exemplify that, and seeing that number escalate wouldn’t be surprising.
I’m expecting the Giants defense to be atrocious again this season, meaning Eli will be chucking up the ball a lot to try and stay in games. The beneficiary of that will be Odell, and his touchdown totals should be a direct reflection. In 2014 he started with only 3 touchdowns in his first 6 games, and 2015 was nearly identical with 4 in his first 7 games. If Odell gets off to a hot start this season, and stays healthy, approaching the 20 touchdown total isn’t outside the question.
MVP – REGULAR SEASON
AARON RODGERS – 7/1 (BET365)
On the scale of success, last year was a poor one for Aaron Rodgers. He failed to eclipse 4000 yards for the first time since 2010 when playing a full season, and couldn’t seem to lead the Packers to victory in tight games we usually see them pull out. It definitely hurt their offense playing without Jordy Nelson for entirety of season. Having him back in the lineup should be a major boost to Rodgers value.
Eddy Lacey was expected to be a stud last season, instead he was a dud. But he put in serious time this offseason to get into football shape, and if he runs the ball even 20% more efficient then Rodgers should have plenty of time and space to move the chains on play action. While Randle Cobb proved to us he is not a true #1 receiver last year, the return of Nelson will improve his numbers. Last season Rodgers averaged a mere 6.7 yards per passing attempt, by far the lowest of his career. In 2014 with Nelson in the lineup, Rodgers connected with him for 13 touchdowns, 7 of which travelled 20 or more yards through the air.
Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback in the league, and thats exactly why he is the favourite to win MVP this season.Given the fact Green Bay will play both the weak NFC East and AFC South divisions this season, he will have the chance to put up some impressive stats. Expect for Rodgers to bounce back from last year, and put up career numbers this season with a healthy Packers offense.