The first two of our three-game teaser has come through in back to back weekends, only to be crushed by the final game on the docket. With a record of 2-1 last weekend, entering the divisional round we are 22-8 overall on the year. Let’s take a quick look back at where things went right, and where they went wrong last weekend.
WIN – BUFFALO (-0.5)
This game cashed but it wasn’t without concern. Indianapolis moved the ball surprisingly well on Buffalo and if you look at the game recap one could easily make an argument the Colts should have won. But that wasn’t the case and Buffalo came through with their first home playoff victory in what feels like forever.
WIN – SAINTS (-4)
As expected the Saints took out the trash. Chicago actually had a chance to lead this game at halftime if it wasn’t for a dropped touchdown pass by Javon Wims. After that play the Bears completed nothing productive on offense. The Saints defense stepped up and held Chicago to 3-points for nearly the entire game. This teaser was never really in doubt.
LOSS – PITTSBURGH (PK)
This one stunk from the first snap, quite literally. Pittsburgh game Cleveland a defensive touchdown on a blotched snap to start the game and before you could even blink the Steelers were down 28-points in the first quarter. Our chance to win this was really over in the first quarter. I do believe that the outcome of this game was more the Steelers mistakes than the Browns playing a flawless game. If there was a 5th quarter Pittsburgh had all the steam to come back, they just couldn’t beat the clock.
LOS ANGELES RAMS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)
6-POINT TEASE – GREEN BAY (-0.5)
After upsetting the Seattle Seahawks at home the Los Angeles travels east this weekend and hope for a similar outcome in Green Bay. While the Packers are expected to be well rested after earning a bye as the NFC top seeded team. In this situation I’ve decided to tease the Packers down from 6.5-point favourites to 0.5-point favourites, or to just win the game. With a spread such as this, there could also be value found in teasing the Rams from 6.5-point underdogs up to 12.5-point underdogs. It gets them through the key number of 7 and 10. But for this particular game I am much more confident in teasing the Packers down, and here is why.
Plenty can be touched upon for this game creating arguments for either team. But one thing that cannot be overlooked is the most important player on every NFL roster, the quarterback. The Packers most obviously have the advantage in this spot, and more often than not the team with the superior quarterback reigns supreme in the post-season. I can dive into the numbers but I don’t think that is necessary here. We all know that Aaron Rodgers has been playing like a bad bad man this season, and will likely be crowned NFL MVP this year due to his play. While an opposing case can be made that Jared Goff is the worst quarterback remaining in the post-season, plus with his California roots he is not familiar with playing in the cold weather, which could prove to become a factor. Lastly, how can we forget this guy had thumb surgery less than two weeks ago. The list is long in this spot, and I will happily ride the hot hand in Rodgers.
Aaron Donald is easily the best defensive player in the NFL. While Jalen Ramsey is the best lockdown cornerback in the NFL. The Rams defense is stacked and maybe the best in the NFL. But this weekend Aaron Donald is playing injured after suffering a torn rib cartilage. His statement tis week was that he “feels no pain, I feel healthy”. But this time of year any NFL player would say that. He is clearly hurt, thats why he didn’t return against Seattle after the injury occurred. While he is very likely to play, an Aaron Donald that is less than 100% benefits the Packers.
As for the Jalen Ramsey and DaVante Adams matchup, this one should be fantastic. But I lean towards Adams and the depth of the Packers passing attack in this spot. Even if Ramsey can neutralize Adams, Rodgers has other weapons that rarely get mentioned. Tight End Robert Tonyan finished 5th in the NFL with 11 receiving touchdowns this season, and Aaron Jones is an excellent pass catcher coming out of the backfield. For backers concerned about this, you should be looking into Cooper Kupp aka Jared Goffs security blanket. He has a knee injury and did not practise all week, while being listed as questionable. Kupp is Goffs favourite receiver and if he failed to crack the lineup or is hampered by injury in this game, the Packers could easily neutralize any passing attack the Rams have this weekend.
Give me Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in the post-season. He had lead the Packers to post-season victory in each of their last three playoff appearances at home. The Rams had a good run this season, but it comes to a finish this weekend.
FINAL SCORE – RAMS 20 – PACKERS 28
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)
6-POINT TEASE – RAVENS (+8.5)
The Baltimore Ravens got the Tennessee monkey off their back last weekend earning themselves a game against Buffalo this weekend. As for the Bills, they are looking to punch a ticket to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 1994. I’m recommending you tease Baltimore from 2.5-point underdogs in this spot up to 8.5-point underdogs, getting value as we move through both key numbers of 3 and 7.
Life for all you Baltimore Ravens fans has been relatively stress free the last couple weeks. They have quietly reeled off six straight victory, but what is most promising was their ability to rally against the Titans last weekend. They fell behind 10-0 early and often this situation brings out the worst in both Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Well that wasn’t the case, they put up 17 straight and ultimately held on for the win. They have the ball rolling right now, and I think teasing them up provides some great value. The Ravens lost five games all season, and only one by more than 6-points. The one outlier was against Kansas City and their potent offense back in week three.
Look, both these teams could easily win this game outright. I think Buffalo covered the spread in 15 of 16 games this season when you teased them 6-points. While Lamar Jackson enters with a 5-2 record in his career when an underdog. Both these teams are elite, that is why they made it this far. But I’m looking for Baltimore to carbon copy the Indianapolis game plan from last weekend, and if they succeed they will win outright.
Last weekend the Colts held Buffalo to 2-9 on third-down conversions, and possessed the football for nearly 10 minutes longer than the Bills (34:17). In almost any NFL game if these numbers are in your favour there is a tremendous chance you win outright. The Colts didn’t of course, but here is why Baltimore could. Baltimore is held opponents to a 33.99% conversion rate on third-down (2nd in the NFL) this season, and even better 19.35% in their last three games. While their offense possessed the ball the 5th most per game this season, (31:30 per game) and a league best average 36:26 in the last three games. Baltimore has the rushing attack to dominate and control the game. In the last three games the Ravens are averaging 296 rushing yards per game, that is 100 yards more than the next best rushing attack. We all know the recipe for controlling a football game and running clock is to run the football successfully.
Speaking from a fan perspective, I’d much rather see Buffalo win in this situation. I just think the value in this spot sits with Baltimore. Expect this to likely be the best game of the weekend.
FINAL SCORE – RAVENS 26 – BILLS 29
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10)
6-POINT TEASE – CHIEFS (-4)
Cleveland shocked the world when they knocked off Pittsburgh last weekend to earn a spot in the divisional round for the first time since 1994. This weekend they have a mountain to climb as the Kansas City Chiefs welcome them into Arrowhead Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting a blowout with the Chiefs listed as 10-point favourites, and plenty of scoring with the over/under currently set at 57.
If you came at me with the Browns teased up to 16-point underdogs in this spot, I wouldn’t have a bad thing to say. I think it is very possible Cleveland can keep this close, but I also think it is more likely that Kansas City simply runs the Browns out of the building. For that reason I advise you tease the Chiefs down to 4-point favourites at home on Sunday.
Cleveland is a trendy pick entering this weekend. Simply put they are a Cinderella story after putting up a number on Pittsburgh last weekend, defying all the odds. But what I see in this spot is the public putting major weight into the recency bias, or what they most recently have seen from each of these teams. This often happens after a team out performs expectations and surprises people. What the backers of Kansas City in the second half of the season see is a 0-7-1 against the spread record, and a team that failed to really blow anyone out as we have come to expect. But I have a different feeling going into this game. I think Kansas City pumped the breaks to finish the season, and simply wanted to win games. Entering this weekend they begin their push to win back to back SuperBowls, and I think we see a very motivated and inspired Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs offense on Sunday.
I am shocked with all the sports talk radio I consume that not one person has mentioned the “Andy Reid off a bye week” in this spot. Reid is 5-2 in the post-season wth a bye. Last season the Chiefs faced Houston off the bye, and had several bettors, myself included, doubting them after the Texans grabbed a 24-0 lead early in the second quarter. But we all know what happened next, right? The Chiefs scored 4 straight touchdowns and actually took the lead into half-time. That is what this team can do, and it is exactly what makes other NFL teams and defensive coordinators cry themselves to sleep at night. Last weekend Cleveland jumped out to a big 28-0 lead, but I think they got outplayed for nearly 3 quarters by Pittsburgh. If Cleveland gets an early lead in this game, I’ll be all over Kansas City in live game betting because you know they have the ability to come back down any number.
Game plan for Cleveland is simple, run the ball and control the clock, keep Patrick Mahomes and the offense off the field. I think even if they do all these things right, they still lose this game. Cleveland enters this weekend allowing the most average yards per completion away from home out of all the remaining teams (11.5 yards). While Kansas City finished the season averaging 11.6 yards per completion, 2nd most in the NFL.
Spotting the imposter can be difficult. That is until it becomes obvious. I truley believe the Browns are the outlier this weekend. Let’s not forget this team is only three weeks removed from losing against the Jets. The 2-14 New York Jets.
FINAL SCORE – BROWNS 20 – CHIEFS 41
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)
6-POINT TEASE – TAMPA BAY (+9)
The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off for a third time this season this weekend. New Orleans won both of the first two meetings, and it wasn’t even close. In the first game the Saints won by 11. While the second meeting saw them hand Tampa Bay their worst loss of the season, defeating them by 35 on Sunday night. When looking at where the oddsmakers have set the line, this is a situation where you look at Tampa Bay or pass in a teaser situation. There is no value in teasing the Saints. So the real question becomes, do you think the Saints can defeat Tom Brady a third consecutive time this season?
I can very easily see the Saints winning this game. Their defense has been astounding all season, and Drew Brees finally has all of his offensive weapons in the lineup and healthy. But I am focusing upon the Buccaneers, and how much they have grown since facing the Saints and being handed their most embarassing loss of the season.
I think this season we got a definitive answer to this question, who was more pivotal to all Patriots Super Bowl Championships, Brady or Belichick? After the Patriots finished with their first losing season since 2000, and Tampa Bay went 11-5, the answer is undoubtedly Tom Brady. Yet people still doubt this team, and I would caution those people to do so. Rarely do we see superstar teams on paper congeal together without growing pains. I think Tampa Bay is a great example of that this season, and with each week gone by Tom Brady is clearly becoming more comfortable within this offense. While his offensive line and protection has vastly improved.
Since their week 13 bye, Tampa Bay has won five straight and scored fewer than 30 points only once. In fact, through the last three weeks they are the highest scoring offense in the NFL averaging over 40-points per game. I think the training wheels are officially off on this offense, and you really need to ask yourself one simple question. Do you want you bet against Tom Brady in January?
After spending some time researching I was able to find something interesting with Tom Brady. Only five times in his career has he ever lost to the same team twice in the same season. His two consecutive loses against the Saints this season is the first time he has ever lost against the same team twice in the regular season. While the sample size is small, he has never lost against the same team three times in one season including post-season play. I think Tampa Bay finds a way to expose the few weaknesses New Orleans has defensively, and Tom Brady rolls the Buccaneers into their first NFC Conference game since 2002.