Wildcard weekend was a success in my books. I was able to pick three of four games correctly. Kansas City started me off on the wrong foot, but every single game for the remainder of the weekend checked out. Atlanta covered in Los Angeles, Buffalo covered in Jacksonville and Carolina covered in New Orleans. I’m hoping I can carry the momentum into the divisional round; one of the best weekends in football all year. Here are the teams I’ll be riding to conference championship weekend.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3)
Everyone hop on the Eagles bandwagon, because the line for this game ridiculous. This is the first time in NFL history that a #1 seed is an underdog in the divisional round. This is a perfect example of just how important Carson Wentz was to their success. If Wentz was in the lineup I suspect that the Eagles would be at least 5-point favourites, instead they are 3-point home dogs – and I’ll happily take that number.
People only remember the most recent outings that teams have had. We remember how the Eagles behind Nick Foles got shut out versus Dallas in the final regular season game, and how the Falcons had an impressive win over a strong Rams team last weekend. What nobody is talking about is how the Eagles will have support from their home crowd this weekend, and have had over two weeks to prepare themselves for this game. The depth that Philadelphia has on the offensive side of the football is endless, and it will all start and end with LeGarrete Blount and Jay Ajayi this weekend. The Eagles finished the regular season 3rd in rushing yards per game averaging over 130 per game. They need to get both of these guys going early and often. If they can establish a ground game it will help open the play-action playbook and give Foles much needed time in the pocket to find Ashlon Jefferey and Nelson Agholor. Atlanta is vastly improved on the defensive side of the football but I think the Eagles will have a game plan in place to exploit their weaknesses.
As for the Falcons offense, they are star studded and have the experience yet have looked anemic at points this season. They were able to lay some points on Los Angles last weekend because of turnovers. If the Eagles are even or better in that category this weekend then I love their defense to stand tall and earn them the victory in this situation. Philadelphia finished the season 4th in points allowed per game, (18.4) 3rd in third down conversion situations (32.22%) and 1st in rushing yards allowed per game (79.2). If they can continue those numbers this weekend, the Eagles are a must play in this spot. Give me the points and the home team with rest.
FINAL SCORE – FALCONS 16 – EAGLES 20
TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13)
Marcus Maroita became the first quarterback in post-season history to throw a touchdown to himself. I don’t expect we will be seeing that again anytime soon. The only thing you can expect to see wen you tune into this game on Saturday Night is the Patriots laying a beatdown on the Titans. Tennessee didn’t so much win their wildcard matchup versus Kansas City, as much as the Chiefs and Andy Reid handed them the game. Just consider this, with a 21-3 half-time lead, Kansas City ran the ball a total of three times in the second half….THREE! That is outrageous. It should not be shocking that the Patriots are double digit favourites in this position. To be quite frank, I think it should be larger than 13.
This is the 8th straight time the Patriots have reached the divisional round of the playoffs. Their record of advancing to the conference final during the stretch, 6-1. In those six victories? Oh, they only won by an average of 16-points. I would not touch the Titans with a ten foot stick in this situation. New England has proven time and time again that they win in this spot and they win big. Tom Brady will be extremely rested and ready to dismantle a weak Titans secondary. Just look at what Travis Kelce was able to accomplish in one half versus the Titans. It makes me froth just thinking about what Gronkowski is going to do. The Patriots offense is completely healthy for the first time nearly all season long, and have had time to prepare for this matchup. Look for them to exploit the Titans on both sides of the football this weekend on route to their 6th straight conference champion game.
FINAL SCORE – TITANS 17 – PATRIOTS 39
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7)
This spread opened Steelers -8 but has since dropped to -7, and I love it. The Jaguars have an incredible defensive team this year but that in itself is not going to carry them past the Steelers. During the regular season the Jaguars knocked off the Steelers 30-9 at home. Needless to say, it was a beatdown by the Jags. But to expect the same result this weekend would be foolish. In the regular season meeting between these two Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions.. FIVE. Two of which were returned for defensive touchdowns for Jacksonville. While you can tack on a meaningless 90 yard touchdown for Leonard Fournette in the final seconds of the game. Erase those scores and it would have been a 9-9 football game. If you think the Steelers are going to make anywhere near the same amount of mistakes in this game then you’re half-baked.
In week five the Steelers finished with 382 yards of offense versus the Jaguars, yet only came away with three field goals. If you subtract the 90-yard run by Fournette to close out the game, Jacksonville had only 236 yards of total offense. Pittsburgh controlled the game on both sides of the ball, but the turnovers killed them. I suspect they have a plan in order for this weekend and go directly for the Jaguars one glaring weakness, their run defense. Jacksonville finished the year allowing 4.3 yards per rush, (25th) and an average of 117 yards per game on the ground (22nd). Expect LeVeon Bell to get the rock early and often in this game. Pittsburgh should have no problem establishing the ground game early, which will open up play-action for Roethlisberger downfield to either Antonio Brown or Ju-Ju. I don’t see any scenario where the Steelers fail to cover this total. BLAKE BORTLES. BLAKE BORTLES. BLAKE BORTLES. The man finished 12/23 with 87 passing yards against the Bills. How is he supposed to orchestrate a comeback? ( I suspect they will be playing from behind in this game). Lay the seven points quickly, because come Sunday this spread is going to reach at least 8.
FINAL SCORE – JAGUARS 13 – STEELERS 27
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5)
Always leave the best for last, the NFL did just that this weekend. This is going to be one hell of a football game. Both Minnesota and New Orleans have had great seasons and are meeting for the second time this year. In week one the Vikings defeated the Saints 29-19 in U.S Bank Stadium. Sam Bradford was under center and won NFC offensive player of the week honours with his performance. This weekend we will see Case Keenum calling the shots, but I still have every reason to believe that Minnesota is going to control this football game.
Revenge is always a huge factor, and I know New Orleans will be ready for this game but I think that Minnesota has the perfect offense to expose the Saints weakness – their secondary. They knocked off Carolina in the wildcard matchup but not without concern. After jumping out to a huge lead Cam Newton was able to dismantle the Saints secondary in the second half. While some of you might be sceptical of Case Keenum leading the charge this weekend, consider this – Keenum finished 2nd in overall quarterback rating this season, behind only Carson Wentz. While the Saints secondary finished 28th in the league giving up 58 passing plays of 20+ yards. They have a glaring weakness in the centre of their secondary and the loss of Kenny Vaccaro over the top is massive for this matchup. Look for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs to both have good games. Thielen finished the year tied for 5th in the league with 20 catches of 20+ yards, while Diggs finished tied for 18th with 14 of 20+ yards. In the first game of the season these two combined for 250 yards and two touchdowns. Look for them to be integral early allowing for a solid run game to be established by the Vikings.
Saints offense this, Saints offense that. I’m sick of hearing about how explosive this Saints offense is. Yes, they had an incredible season. Alvin Kamera and Mark Ingram became the first two running backs on the same roster in NFL history to both have over 1,500 scrimmage yards. But I don’t care about any of this. New Orleans nearly lost against Carolina in their home stadium last weekend. This weekend they are on the road. People under estimate how difficult it is to play in U.S Bank stadium. It is one of the loudest places in the league since its completion. That silence Brees gets on offense at home, will be chaos this weekend. Expect to see some false starts and penalties against New Orleans and for the Vikings defense to completely take over this game. Everyone wants to say “Jaguars defense is best in the league”. I ask you, have you seen the Vikings defense this season? Sure Jacksonville has an elite secondary, but Minnesota is the complete package in every single defensive area and the numbers prove it. The Vikings finished the year 1st in points allowed per game, (15.8) 1st in yards per game, (275.9) 2nd in yards per play, (4.9) and set an NFL RECORD limiting teams to 25.25% on third down (1st). Those are some incredible defensive numbers it should not go under appreciated. In the each of the last four seasons the defensive team that finished the regular season 1st in points allowed per game, or yards allowed per game have made the Super Bowl each year, and WON in three of the past four. I love Minnesota this year, and that isn’t just the fan in me coming out. If they send New Orlean out the door this weekend they have the clearest path to Super Bowl 52 and will become the first team ever to play the big game in their home stadium. I’ve already laid a stack on Minnesota to win it all this season, I suggest you do the same.