WildCard weekend turned out to be very anticlimactic. Every single home team advanced to the divisional round with blowout victories. The closest game of the weekend was on Saturday afternoon where the Texans handed Oakland a first round exit in their first playoff appearance in 14 years. Houston won by a 13-point margin, 27-14. On Saturday night Seattle handed Detroit a 26-6 loss, easily covering the 8-point spread oddsmakers had listed. While on Sunday the Steelers tossed Miami 30-12, then the Packers caught fire in the second half to send New York packing with a final score of 38-13. The script was definitely flipped from last season where every single road team won and advanced through to the divisional round. Stepping into this weekend I’m posting a 3-1 record for post-season play. The only incorrect prediction I had was Detroit covering in Seattle. Hopefully I can keep that winning train rolling this weekend. Let’s jump right into who I’m favouring to advance to the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games this year.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5)
After a week of rest the Atlanta Falcons (11-5) are welcoming the Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) into the Mercedes-Benz Stadium this Saturday. Seattle has won back-to-back games entering the divisional round, and have their sights set on handing the Falcons a second straight loss this season. These two teams squared off in week six in Seattle and the Seahawks secured a 26-24 victory. Oddsmakers are expecting a similar point total this weekend setting the over/under at 51-points. But this time around Atlanta is home favourites, 4.5-points to be exact.
4.5-points, right in the Vegas zone. It’s not every day that a football game ends with a team winning by 5-points, 4 points is much more common. This line is baiting people into taking Seattle. But I’m happily wagering big money on Atlanta this weekend and here is why. Does anyone remember the game these two played earlier in the year? Seattle was 7-point home favourites, and not only did Atlanta cover but they should have won the game. With less than 2-minutes left Matt Ryan chucked a deep ball to Julio Jones, the play was pass interference clear as day but the referees blew the call (one of many this season might I add). If that had been called correctly then Atlanta would have had the ball inside Seattle territory and within chip-shot field goal range to win the game. Revenge is a huge factor coming into this game and you can bet your bank account nobody on the Falcons roster or coaching staff has forgotten about the outcome of the game earlier this season. Blood will be spilled this weekend and it will come at the expense of Seattle. The Seahawks looks fantastic on paper but they are nowhere close to the team that struck fear in opposing teams seasons past.
Atlanta might have finished the year 11-5 but this team could have very easily been 14-2 this year. In the five losses the Falcons had this year three were by three points or fewer. San Diego defeated them 33-30, Seattle 26-24, and Kansas City 29-28 on an unlikely pick-2 by Eric Berry that nobody will soon forget. Each of these games could have gone completely different. Few teams can say the largest loss they had all season was by 9-points. Not even the Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers or Patriots can even say that. Atlanta has been slept on all season long and I’m finished sleeping on one of the most dominate offensive teams we’ve seen in the last five years. They put up a historic 540 points this season, (tied for 7th most all time in one season) for 33.8 points per game. Do I think they can do that against Seattle? Yes, I do. I’ve been off the Seahawks bandwagon all season long. I could easily seen Atlanta win this game by double digits.
Earl Thomas is a huge loss for Seattle in this game. They had him for the week six matchup between these two, and that loss will be more than visible this weekend trying to contain the best offense in the league. Atlanta finished 1st or near 1st in nearly every important offensive statistical category, and what is most terrifying is their ability to spread the ball around. Thirteen different players scored touchdowns on offense this season and their running game was equally as affective as their passing game. You can make a case as Julio Jones being the best wide receiver in football, and he should be on display this weekend. On the contrary this whole team has had nearly two weeks to tend to their injuries and will come out flying on Saturday.
Three important defensive statistics point towards Seattle struggling in this game. The Seahawks enter the 20th ranked red-zone defense allowing 6-points 56.62% of the time, 15th allowing 6.7 yards per passing attempt, and 26th averaging around 1 takeaway per game. These numbers might not fly out at you, but when you compare them to Atlanta’s offensive numbers, you’ll find a mismatch. The enter Falcons have the 9th ranked red-zone offense scoring 61.90%, are 1st averaging 8.8 yards per pass and have only 11 giveaways all season long. (tied for fewest in the league) With these numbers a strong case is formed for Atlanta to dominate this game. Seattle is going to have to either score 28-points or force multiple turnovers to keep this game manageable. Only one team held Atlanta under 28-points at home this season, and when they eclipse that point total they are 5-1 at home this year.
I’ll let you fester about this game after one more important piece of information. Seattle enters this game with a 3-4-1 record on the road this season. They lost against Los Angeles, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Green Bay away from home this year. Only one of those teams earned a playoff bid this year, I’m sure you know which one that is. The only quality road win they had this year was against the Patriots. But that game was more of an outlier than the standard for them this year. They have not been a great team on the road this year and expecting a similar result to the WildCard round would be foolish. Each of Seattle’s four road losses this year have been by 5-points or more, which leads to the question; do you think Atlanta will win this game? I sure as heck do, which almost guarantees they’ll cover the 4.5-points oddsmakers have listed this weekend.
TRENDS
SEATTLE
- 2-6 against the spread versus the NFC South division the last three seasons
- 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 playoff games
- 3-8 against the spread in their lats 11 games following an against the spread win
ATLANTA
- 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games
- 4-0 against NFC West opponents this season
- 3-1 against the spread revenging a loss against an opponent this year
- 5-1 against the spread after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – SEAHAWKS 23 – FALCONS 31
HOUSTON TEXANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-15)
The New England Patriots (14-2) host the Houston Texans (10-7) this weekend for a chance to advance to the AFC Conference championship. This game marks the 7th straight year in which New England has hosted a playoff game in the divisional round, and boy have they dominated. They have made five straight AFC Conference Championship appearances. As for Houston, they are looking to advance past the divisional round for the first time in team history. Oddsmakers think that Houston will have to wait another year for that though, they’ve listed the Patriots as 15-point home favourites for this game. The largest opening favourites in the division round of the playoffs in over ten years.
Part of me wants to take the points here, then I remind myself I’d be taking Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans offense; two things I have zero confidence in. For those of you who have forgotten, the Texans played in New England earlier this season and got embarrassed on Thursday night football. They left Foxborough with a donut on the scoreboard, losing 27-0. Not much has changed since this game, and I’m not convinced the outcome this weekend will change much either.
Houston will live or die by their defense this weekend. It has been heavily documented how terrible the Texans offense has struggled this season. Which means their defense will have to live up to the task and keep Tom Brady off the field. This sounds just as difficult as it is, Brady lost only one game all season. To understand why I’m taking the ridiculous 15-points here, you need look no further than how the Texans have played on the road this year. Away from NRG Stadium this season the Texans finished 2-6, and allowed nearly 25 points per game, 17th most in the league. Their two road victories came against divisional opponents, and finished a combined 0-6 against all other opponents. This team undeniably has one of the best defensive teams in the league but they’ve been caught several times on the road this year bleeding points. Jadeveon Clowney might be a freak of nature and much improved as the season progressed, but expecting him to completely take over would be foolish. The Patriots offensive line allowed only 24 sacks all season, 5th fewest in the league and unlike last season have a very solid run game to keep the Texans on their heels in this game.
New England finished the year averaging 27.6 points per game this season, 4th best in the league. But if you eliminate the four games in which Tom Brady missed, they averaged 30 points per game. Let say for hypothetical purposes the Patriots reach 30-points this weekend, it means the Texans will have to score 16-points to cover this spread. This definitely seems attainable for most teams, but the Patriots defense has really stepped it up the last couple weeks, and Houston has done nothing on the road all season long. Through eight road games this year the Texans averaged under 15-points per game. While the Patriots defense finished the season the #1 scoring defense in the league giving up only 15.6 points per game. They have been fantastic at stopping the run all season long and getting off the field in third-down situations. I’ve got advantage Patriots in nearly every matchup between these teams this weekend, and I’m expecting it to be way out of hand by half-time.
TRENDS
HOUSTON
- 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record
- 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight up win
- 3-7 against the spread as an underdog this season
NEW ENGLAND
- 6-1 against the spread as a favourite of more than 10-points the last three seasons
- 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game
- 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 home games as a favourite of 10-points or more
- 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 divisional playoff games
FINAL SCORE – TEXANS 13 – PATRIOTS 35
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+2) VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) earned a first round playoff for the first time in over 13 years, and have been rewarded with facing the Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) this weekend at ArrowHead. Pittsburgh is fresh off trampling the Dolphins to advance to the divisional round, and are looking to hand the Chiefs their second loss this season. Earlier this year the Steelers smashed Kansas City 43-14 at Hienz Field. This time around Kansas City has the home field advantage, oddsmakers have listed them as 2-point home favourites, with a low scoring game expected with the over/under placed at 44-points.
Kansas City has had a fantastic season. Some could go as far to say they won the toughest division in all of football this year. They deserve home field advantage for this game, and have a serious advantage with two weeks of rest entering this game. If you’re not convinced just look at Andy Reid’s record as a head coach following a bye week. He is 16-2 all time following two weeks of preparation. Which means Kansas City should advance to their first conference championship game in over 20 years, right? Nope, hate to burst that bubble, but Pittsburgh is going to pancake this Chiefs secondary and toss them from the divisional round for a second consecutive season.
Le’Veon Bell. Need I say more? I’m riding Pittsburgh until the end in this game because they can score points unlike few other teams in this league; and at a rate in which leaves opponents in the dust. We all witnessed the 1st quarter against Miami last week. Now Kansas City has a much better defensive team than the Dolphins, and Arrowhead is a very tough stadium to play in, but I just don’t see how they are going to contain Le’Veon Bell. In his first career playoff game Bell broke the Steelers playoff rushing record with 167 yards. He has a stutter step and shiftiness that makes him almost impossible to track, and can catch passes to boot. Kansas City is great at stacking the box, but they couldn’t stop the run all season long. They finished the year 25th allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 26th giving up over 121 rushing yards per game. But what really hurts is they are missing one of their most pivotal defensive players, inside linebacker Derrick Johnson. Johnson ruptured his achilles in week 14 against Oakland and I just don’t see the Chiefs defense in the same light without him. He finished the season leading the team in tackles, and is their best pass coverage linebacker. Facing a running back as dynamic as Bell, this is a guy that the Chiefs need in the lineup, and his absence will be felt this weekend.
Pittsburgh has won eight straight games, why is nobody talking about this? Everyone is eager to discuss the Packers success in the last couple weeks but nobody is giving the steel city any love after an incredible second half. The difference between their 4-4 start and their 8-1 record down the stretch, their defensive play. In the last eight games only two teams have scored more than 20 points. They have done a great job containing teams and keeping their offense on the field to put up points.
One very important statistic points towards the Steelers advancing to the next round. They finished the year 4th overall in red-zone defense allowing teams to score a touchdown only 45.76% of the time. When you compare that to Kansas City and their 30th ranked red-zone offense, a major mismatch is exposed. The Chiefs are scoring a touchdown only 45.45% of the time inside their opponents 20-yard line. Alex Smith is far from feared by opposing teams and the defense can only score so many points a game. Walking off the field with only 3-points will not cut it this weekend. Unless Tyreek Hill busts out some huge runs in this game I’m saddled into believing Pittsburgh will become the first road team to win in the playoffs this season.
TRENDS
PITTSBURGH
- 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up win
- 12-3-3 against the spread in their last 18 games in January
- 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 divisional playoff games
KANSAS CITY
- 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 home games
- 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 playoff games
- 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as a favourite between 0.5-3 points
FINAL SCORE – STEELERS 27 – CHIEFS 23
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+4.5) VS DALLAS COWBOYS
The Dallas Cowboys (13-3) host the Green Bay Packers (11-6) in the final divisional game this weekend. These two met earlier this season in Lambeau, the Cowboys put up 30 points on route to a fourteen point victory over the Packers. Green Bay has a different result in mind when they enter Dallas this weekend, that I’m sure of. This is also an exact rematch of the divisional round in 2014. Green Bay had home field advantage, and Dallas had Tony Romo at quarterback. The Packers rallied from a 11-point fourth quarter deficit and went on to defeat Dallas 26-21. This time around oddsmakers are giving the Cowboys the edge as 4.5-point favourites, with a high scoring game expected with the over/under being placed at 52-points.
How can you bet against Aaron Rodgers? Jordy Nelson or no Jordy Nelson, Rodgers is on a mission and I don’t think he’s going to be stopped. What he did to get the Packers into the playoffs is miraculous and MVP worthy in itself. The guy is piping hot right now and can be credited with almost 100% of the Packers success this season. Without him at the helm, this team would have a completely different look and might not even be here. I’m not looking to take anything away from what Dallas has accomplished this season. But their is a few statistics that incline me to believe the Packers will not only cover this spread, but win the game outright on Sunday.
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot have had arguably the best rookie quarterback/runningback campaign in NFL history. The offensive line definitely deserves credit, but these guys have been incredible none the less. What I’m expecting in this game is for some of that rookie inexperience to shine. Whether it comes in the form of a fumble by Elliot or interception by Prescott, nerves are going to be running high in this game and the Packers defense have been creating turnovers all over the field in the last couple weeks. At +1.7, their turnover margin is 2nd best in the league behind New England in the last three weeks. If they can force one or two turnovers in this game then the Packers will win this game. Aaron Rodgers has zero interceptions in his last seven starts and can create magic out of the pocket, just look back at the end of the first half versus the Giants last week.
The Cowboys offensive line has shown all season long that their running game is nearly impossible to stop. I don’t think that Green Bay will be the first to shut-down Elliot, but they can slow him down. Entering this game they are 8th in the league allowing an average of 93.2 rushing yards per game this season, and 3rd overall giving up only 5 rushing first downs per game. They have the guys in place to keep this a close game, and I wouldn’t expect any other result. You’d be foolish to think that the Cowboys are going to run away with this game, it’ll be close until the end.
When discussing the Cowboys defense, they have had to luxury of playing with big leads nearly all season. The pressure has never really been put on this team, only the Giants gave them a real test and in both matchup’s won with a putrid offense. When playing with a big lead like the Cowboys did for majority of the season it forces opposing teams into throwing the ball to catch up. The problem with this is even after the entire season knowing what to expect the Cowboys pass defense still sucks. They finished the season giving up an average of 260.4 passing yards per game, (26th) a completion percentage of 67.14% (31st) and couldn’t breakthrough on the turnover front. They finished tied for 27th with only 9 interceptions all season. Not much has been asked of the Cowboys defense all season except to hold teams to fewer points than what they were able to score, which in most cases was nearly 30-points. This weekend they will be tested, Green Bay has scored over 30-points in each of their last five games, with three coming against great defensive teams. They put up exactly 38 points against Seattle, Minnesota and the Giants – three of the top six point per game defensive teams this season. Aaron Rodgers is on a mission, and I’m not gonna be the one to say the train ends here. This is going to be one hell of a football game.
TRENDS
GREEN BAY
- 3-1 against the spread as an underdog this season
- 6-3 against the spread versus NFC East opponents in the last three seasons
- 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 road playoff games
- 4-0 against the spread 4 playoff games as an underdog between 3.5-10 points
DALLAS
- 2-4 against the spread when playing a team in the second half of the season with a winning record this year
- 1-4 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
- 13-31 against the spread in their last 44 games as a home favourite