7 Aug 2015

NFL Divisional Playoff Picks 2013

by | posted in: 2013 NFL Picks | 0

Wildcard weekend has left many of us nothing but stunned and amazed. Every single home team lost,  despite the lonely Colts of course; but for quite some time it looked like they would too. It only took the second largest comeback in history for Indianapolis to win; thats right, not just the playoffs, but ever. While the Saints earned their first playoff road win in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. Cincinnati lost their first home game all year, evidently one that had revenge written all over. Although this wasn’t a unbelievable performance by the Chargers, it attribute Andy Dalton’s multiple mistakes to that game (2 interceptions, 2 fumbles). Finally, we closed out the weekend with the Packers losing their 4th straight game against the 49ers. Leaving us to ask the question, “Are the 49ers really that good? or they just the Packers achilles hill?”. We will surely see more excitement this weekend as we swing into the second weekend of playoff football. My predictions finished a poor 1-2-1 last weekend with pretty much every game finishing different than I expected; none the less here’s how I see the divisional matchups playing out.

NFC SOUTH VS NFC WEST 
























NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8) 


ODDS: BET365 


The first game scheduled to kick off this weekend showcases the Seattle Seahawks (13-3) versus the New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Century LinkField. This is marks a rematch from the week 13 game between these two teams, and a wildcard game from 2011. Seattle evidently won both of their last meetings and this time around they enter heavy favourites to win the Super Bowl. The Saints will play underdog for a second consecutive time against Seattle and despite their huge away victory in Philadelphia last weekend, this Seahawks team is a whole different beast. Oddsmakers have listed the hometown Seahawks as 8-point favourites for this game with a total set at 46.5 for the over/under.

The last time these teams met in the playoffs Matt Hassleback was the quarterback for this Seahawks roster and they became the first team to ever make the post-season with losing record. But boy has a lot changed around this organization since then. They drafted arguably one of the best all around quarterbacks in the league with Russell Wilson and have one of the most feared defensive teams in the entire league. For these reasons I fully expect them to put on a clinic against the Saints this saturday, and here’s why;

New Orleans has been terrible on the road this season, they are 4-5 including last weekend and Drew Brees can shoulder part of that blame. He finished the year with a 12/9 touchdown to interception ratio on the road, and is currently riding a streak of three consecutive road games throwing at least two interceptions. If anyone claims that streak won’t continue this weekend, I say you’re bat shit crazy. Seattle has the best secondary in all of football; they are well rounded in every aspect and can compete and cover the best receivers and tight ends that this league can offer. But thats no secret considering they lead the league with 28 interceptions this season; 5 more than the second best team (Buffalo Bills). Furthermore, it should come as no surprise they finished the season averaging 2.6 turnovers per game at home, and even better 3.7 in their last three games overall. Making me expect to see Brees with his head in his hands multiple times this Saturday. If that isn’t convincing enough for you to place your money behind Seattle this weekend, it’s been announced Percy Harvin will make his return. He might not make a major impact early on but he is the type of player that can easily change the outcome of games.

TRENDS 


NEW ORLEANS

  • 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 road games versus teams with winning home records
  • 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games in January 
  • 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 following an ATS win 
SEATTLE 
  • 37-17-1 against the spread in their last 55 home games
  • 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home playoff games
  • 7-2 against the spread after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
  • 19-7-1 against the spread in their last 27 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
FINAL SCORE – SAINTS 17 – SEAHAWKS 33 

AFC SOUTH VS AFC EAST 












INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7) VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

ODDS: BET365 

The Indianapolis Colts (11-5) look to follow up their first playoff victory in the Andrew Luck era this weekend when they enter New England to take on the 12-4 Patriots. New England enters the playoffs a fifth consecutive year with home field advantage in the first round. They lost in the conference championships last year against the Baltimore Ravens and to no surprise it will once again be SuperBowl or bust for this franchise. As for the Colts, they are lucky to have made it out of the wildcard around; but none the less are getting hot at the perfect time having won 4 straight. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as 7-point home favourites with a total set of 52 points. 
New England has been one of the best teams in the league for the last decade. They have missed the playoffs only once in the last 10 years but despite this they haven’t wrapped their arms around the Lombardi trophy since 2004; and unfortunately this is a shout out to all you Patriots fans, I don’t expect to see that happen this year. Indianapolis enters this game as one of the most feared teams in the league. They have proven time and time again that no deficit it too large, and have shown all season long no team is unbeatable. They have already defeated Denver, Seattle, Kansas City and San Francisco this year; and I’m telling you to go ahead and chalk up the Patriots on that list. 
Rob Gronkowski, Jared Mayo, and Vince Wilfork. These are three of the Patriots most pitivotal players, and three players they will be without when the host Indianapolis on Saturday. I’m sure many would love to see Gronkowski back on offense but frankly their offense has been surviving just fine without him. It is the likes of Mayo and Wilfork they are gravely missing. Since both these guys went down with injury they have struggled in several defensive area’s. With Wilfork in the lineup the Patriots were allowing only 105 rushing yards per game, near the best in the league; without him they have been allowing 144, amongst the league worst. As for Mayo, he is reveared as one of the premier pass rushers in the league and has lead each of his squads in tackles the last five seasons. Put both these monstrosities in the lineup and New England was limiting opponents red zone efficiency too 41.2%; take them out and their opponents red zone efficiency catapults to 63.6%. Combine that with the fact it is no secret how lethal Andrew Luck and this Colts offense can be; the Patriots look to have their hands full. Indianapolis is averaging 30 points per game across their last 4 and enter this game with the mentality that no mountain is too high, and no river is too wide. Don’t expect the Colts to just lay down and take it, they haven’t done that once this season. For that reason I’m saying lay the points and saying take the gracious 7 that Vegas feels New England dearly deserves at home. 
TRENDS 

INDIANAPOLIS  
  • 12-5 against the spread after score more than 30 points in their previous game
  • 9-0 against the spread after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
  • 8-3 against the spread after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game 
NEW ENGLAND 
  • 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 playoff games as a favourite 
  • 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favourite between 3.5-10 points
  • 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 home playoff games
  • 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up win 
FINAL SCORE – COLTS 31 – PATRIOTS 27 
NFC WEST VS NFC SOUTH









SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (PK) 

ODDS: BET365 

The Carolina Panthers (12-4) will host their first playoff game since 2008 when they welcome the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) into Bank Of America Stadium this Sunday. San Francisco enters this game on a 7 game win streak and haven’t lost on the road in their last 4 appearances. As for Carolina, this is their first playoff appearance of the Cam Newton era, and look to improve on their last January appearance of one and done. Oddsmakers have officially slated this matchup as a pick ’em with a total set of 42-points. 
Following a 1-3 start to the year several analysts had already began to question Cam Newton’s capability to win big games, or whether he would ever evolve into the elite quarterback he was expected to become. While head coach Ron Rivera was seemingly dipping his toe in the fire after blowing several close games in the final minutes. But all these two combined to do the remainder of the season was prove doubters wrong, and launch themselves into the elite talks of the league. Cam Newton lead Carolina too a 11-1 record in their last 12 games, losing only once on the road against divisional rivals New Orleans and won virtually every single close game possibly. They defeated the 49ers, Patriots, Dolphins and Saints all in the 4th quarter. Making it look that Newton has become nothing short of a clutch 4th quarter play caller; while Ron Rivera has finally formed a defense that he can be confident in too provide big time stops. With the Panthers undefeated at home since October and winning games by an average margin of 13 points across that span, its extremely difficult to bet against them this weekend in Bank of America. 
San Francisco will be looking for revenge from their week 10 loss but it will be harder than some expect. As I touched upon last weekend the 49ers hide no secrets, they run the ball and play strong defense, thats how they win games. The only flaw I see in that plan is Carolina’s defense ranks 2nd in the league against the rush and they allowed only 86.9 yards per game all season long. They shut down Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Frank Gore already this year, another strong performance seems almost inevitable from this bunch. Which leads me to their secondary that isn’t too shabby either. They finished 6th in the league limiting teams to 214 yards per game through the air this year and that should be concerning to 49ers fans. San Francisco is not built to play from behind with Colin Kaepernick failing to prove his comeback ability when facing more than a one score deficit. If that happens this weekend look for Carolina to pick him apart, they finished 5th in the NFL with 20 interceptions this season; and we can’t forget an interception from Kaepernick ultimately decided their last meeting. At the end of the day I expect this will be an extremely close matchup but you have to give the winning hand to Carolina, they won multiple clutch games this year and have played spectacular at home all year. 
TRENDS 

SAN FRANCISCO 
  • 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games versus Carolina
  • 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games versus Carolina 
CAROLINA 
  • 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games following an ATS loss
  • 6-0-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games
  • 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 playoff games
  • 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games
  • 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games played at home versus San Francisco 
FINAL SCORE – 49ERS 17 – PANTHERS 23



AFC WEST DIVISIONAL MATCHUP 













DENVER BRONCOS (-9) VS SAN DEIGO CHARGERS 


ODDS: BET365 

The Denver Broncos (13-3) will have a chance at revenge this weekend when they welcome division rivals San Diego (10-7) into Mile High Stadium for the final playoff game of the weekend. San Diego has the “never say never” mentality after barely making the playoffs this year and stunning Cincinnati last weekend for their first loss at home all year. They come into this game winners in 6 of their last 7 and once again Peyton Manning and the Broncos stand in their path to success. As for the Denver they find themselves at home in January once again hosting a divisional round playoff game; only this time are hoping for a different result. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as 9-point favourites for this matchup and a total set of 54.5 points for the game.

2011.. the last time the Denver Broncos won a playoff game. Frankly its only been two years but a lot has changed around this organization. Firstly, Tim Tebow is no longer quarterback. Secondly, Peyton Manning is. This man broke all kinds of records this season but without a SuperBowl ring on his finger all of those records will be virtually meaningless. Do you think people see the 2004/05 New England Patriots undefeated 16-0 season? They simply see the fact that Eli Manning and the Giants took them down in the most and arguably only important game played all season. If Peyton fails to capture another ring this year he could go down with an asterisk beside his name, quietly saying he was one of the greatest to ever play the game but simply couldn’t bring home the bacon when it counted most. If Denver doesn’t win this Sunday Peyton will officially have a 9-12 record in the post-season after 14 years in the NFL; and 9 appearances in which he failed to advance his team beyond the first round. For this reason and several others I expect Denver to blow the socks off San Diego this weekend.

Its no surprise that the Broncos enter this game highest scoring offense in the league. They have been blowing out teams all season long; however the last time these two teams met it was San Diego that got the last laugh. They became the first team to beat Denver at home all season and ultimately that victory played a pivotal role in ensuring their playoff spot. Interestingly enough the Chargers were the only team that held Denver under 400 total yards this season; and they did it in both games. But the motto I’m going by for this game is third times a charm; Wes Welker will be back in the lineup after sitting out with a concussion most of december. Which not only gives Peyton Manning one of the best check down receivers in the NFL, but will open up significant routes for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Which in turn allows me to guarantee two separate predictions for this game; Peyton Manning will have at least 4 passing touchdowns and 350 yards; while San Diego will have to score 35 points or more if they have any shot at winning this game. End result; Broncos win big at home and advance to the Conference Championships to the first time since 2005.

TRENDS 


SAN DEIGO 

  • 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15 games following an ATS win
  • 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games after winning by 14 points or more in their previous game
  • 8-17 straight up in their last 25 games playing on the road against Denver 
DENVER 
  • 11-5-1 against the spread in their last 17 games following an ATS win 
  • 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games versus the AFC West
  • 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as a favourite 
  • 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game
FINAL SCORE – CHARGERS 27 – BRONCOS 41