NFL Conference Championship Picks 2014

Here we are, only one weekend of football remains until the Superbowl in Arizona. Last weekend my predictions a combined 1-3. My worst weekend making picks since week fifteen of the regular season. While I won’t dwell too long on what happened in the divisional round, here is my take on the games, likes, and dislikes.

RAVENS VS PATS

Easily one of the most exciting games all weekend. Brady had lead the Patriots to conference championship games in four consecutive years but it wasn’t without doubt. Baltimore held 14-point leads twice in this game and if it wasn’t for Gronkowski or Bill Bellichicks ingenious coaching I don’t think the Patriots would be playing this weekend. Baltimore put up a magnificent fight and fans shouldn’t be disappointed with the loss. Flacco has to be one of the best quarterbacks come January and should once again have a bright outlook entering next season.

PANTHERS VS SEAHAWKS

Kam Chanchellor. Thats all that needs to be said about this game. He played possibly the best game of his career and lead the Seahawks stingy defense to a second straight NFC conference championship. Carolina had opportunity to keep this game close but when Newton threw the 90-yard pick six to Chancellor it put this game to bed. Looking forward its difficult to see anyone matching the talent Seattle possesses. Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Wagner, you name it this team is stacked on all fronts of the defensive side of the ball and if one of them doesn’t show up the others will come to play. They look really really good going forward and Vegas feels the same way. Currently they are paying less than 3/1 for Seattle to repeat as Superbowl Champions.

COWBOYS VS PACKERS

Karma. Don’t blame the refs, blame the rule. No doubt in my mind Dez Bryant caught that ball late in the fourth quarter but he didn’t maintain possession the entire way to the ground and resulted in an incomplete pass. Can’t help but ask myself, even if they completed that pass and the Cowboys scored a touchdown, would they have won the game? Rodgers looked electrifying all afternoon even with a bummed calf and I could have easily seem him orchestrating a final minute drive to put the Packers on top. After all, he did accomplish that same feat multiple times this season. I’m really looking forward to a rematch of this years season opener between them and Seattle.

COLTS VS BRONCOS

The only upset of the entire weekend. While Andrew Luck got the better of Peyton it was clear as day Manning was struggling with injury. He overthrew his receivers on multiple drives and didn’t look anywhere near comfortable. With the Broncos already parting ways with John Fox it will be interesting to see which direction they take next season. I’m expecting we see at least one more season out of Manning. As for the Colts, their season will extend another week for the third consecutive season. Luck has lead Indianapolis further into the Playoffs every year in the league but should face his toughest task in playing at Foxborough this weekend. No surprise here, they find themselves once again as heavy underdogs.

Closing out the divisional round at 1-3 my playoff record on the year sits at 4-4. Lucky for me I finished a combined 3-0 in the conference championship games and Superbowl last season. Lets hope I can duplicate that result from last season. Take a peak below and you’ll find out who I’m favouring to contend in this weekend conference championships, and step into February with a bid for this years Superbowl.

NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+7.5) VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

ODDS: BET365

The Seattle Seahawks (13-4) are set to host the Green Bay Packers (13-4) at CenturyLink field this weekend. The winner will be crowned NFC conference champions, and stamp a ticket to the Superbowl in Arizona. Glancing at Seattle, they have been unstoppable lately. They have won seven straight entering this matchup and undeniably are the best defensive football team remaining in the post-season. While Green Bay finds themselves back in the NFC Championship game for the first time since winning the Superbowl in 2011. Their calendar is surely circled for the week one loss they suffered against the Seahawks this season. Oddsmakers have listed the Seahawks as 7.5-point favourites in their final home game this season with a total set of 46.5 points.

There is no denying that the health of Aaron Rodgers will decide the outcome of this matchup. He looked hobbled at points last weekend against Dallas but I’m focused on the fact Seattle’s defensive numbers are inflated from the last couple weeks. In their last seven games they have allowed over 10 points only once but lets take a step back and analyze the opponents they have faced. In weeks twelve though seventeen they played Philadelphia, St. Louis, Arizona twice and San Francisco twice. While they defeated every single one of these teams, ask yourself this, how much credit can we give to those opposing quarterbacks? Mark Sanchez, Shaun Hill, Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Lindley are far from ‘A’ list quarterbacks. Nobody on this list finished with more than 19 touchdowns this season and each one of these play callers finished outside the top 17 in average quarterback rating this year. I’m not looking to take away what the Seahawks have accomplished this season but in their first five games they finished a combined 2-2 against quarterbacks that finished the season inside the top 15 in quarterback ratings. While Aaron Rodger is clearly less than 100% you can’t deny even with an injury he is putting up incredible numbers. He finished the season with merely five interceptions and only Tony Romo averaged a greater quarterback rating all season.

While several of you might point towards Seattle mopping the floor with Green Bay week one of the regular season. I’m over here saying “just hold on for just a minute”. When they squared off in September the Packers offensive line allowed Rodgers to get sacked three times and knocked down countless others. Since that first game the Packers solidified into one of the best offensive lines in all of football. They finished the season allowing only 30 total sacks, 9th best in the entire league. While Rodgers was hit merely 64 times this year, 8th best in the league. I’m expecting Seattle doesn’t find nearly the success in blitzing Rodgers this weekend and we’ve all witnessed what happens when elite quarterbacks are given time and space. Don’t be intimidated by Seattle’s depth on defense, the NFC conference championship has a strong history of producing close scoring games. Since 2008 this game has been decided by 7-points or less every single year. Expect the Packers to keep this game much closer than the last time these two teams met and get revenge for their week one clubbing.

TRENDS

GREEN BAY

7-2-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record
62-38 against the spread versus a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992
7-3 against the spread as a road underdog between 7.5-10 points since 1992

SEATTLE

3-3 against the spread as a home favourite between 7.5-10 points the last three seasons
18-20 against the spread versus the NFC North since 1992
4-6 against the spread versus Green Bay since 1992

FINAL SCORE – PACKERS 27 – SEAHAWKS 26

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5)

ODDS: BET365

The New England Patriots (13-4) are set to host the AFC Conference Championship game for the third time in four seasons when they welcome the Indianapolis Colts (13-5) into Gillette Stadium this weekend. With a victory this weekend the Patriots would return to the Superbowl for a 6th time in twelve years under Tom Brady. While Vegas is clearly favouring that to happen, they have placed the Patriots as 6.5-point favourites for this home game. But don’t be surprised if the Colts play upset once again. Indianapolis has won seven of their last eight games entering this matchup and with the comeback kid under centre, anything could happen.

This marks the fourth time in the last twelve seasons that New England and Indianapolis are meeting in the AFC Conference Championship game. While the Patriots hold the slight edge with a 2-1 record, it will be only the second time in the post-season that they face the Colts without Peyton Manning as the signal caller. While Andrew Luck has clearly washed away all doubt in Indianapolis over whether they made the right choice releasing Peyton Manning, his record hasn’t been miraculous against the either Patriots. Since taking the reigns he is 0-3 against New England, and in every single game failed to eclipse the 25 point mark. If New England creates pressure and limits the Colts under that total for a fourth consecutive game there is no doubt in my mind the Patriots will advance. This season New England averaged nearly 34 points per game at home, placing them the second highest scoring offense at home this season. Only Green Bay was able to surpass that average. While some of you could argue the Colts have been playing much more tenacious defense. I raise you with the argument they faced few elite quarterbacks down the stretch. Since week twelve they have victories over the Jaguars, Redskins, Browns, Texans, Titans, Bengals and Broncos. Every single team on the list aside from Denver has an average signal caller at best. Their secondary simply hasn’t been challenged down the stretch and mark my words, Tom Brady will do that. He enters this game averaging nearly 300 passing yards and 27 completions per game at home this season. Combine those numbers with the fact New England is healthy on all fronts offensively for the first time in a long time. Not to mention Gronkowski has been playing like an absolute beast since week fifteen, he enters this game averaging 80 yards and a touchdown in his last four. Its beginning to look a lot like the Colts are in deep water this weekend.

The outcome of this game relies solely on Andrew Lucks ability to penetrate New England’s defense. While we saw Joe Flacco find success last weekend I’m expecting we see a much more prepared Patriots secondary this weekend. New England closed out the year allowing opposing teams to convert third downs only 32% of the time, 2nd best in the league. While I’ve mentioned before the Colts lead the league in converting third downs this season. I’m expecting the Patriots to once again get the better of this battle. In Luck’s four career games he has thrown eight interceptions and that includes four in last years divisional round matchup. Less Luck on the field and more Brady means more points for the Patriots and inevitably a third straight game they score 40 or more points against Indianapolis. Its going to take a January miracle for Andrew Luck to defeat both Manning and Brady in back-to-back weekends. Five teams have tried to accomplish the feat and only Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and New York’s Mark Sanchez were able to succeed.

Seven of the last eight AFC Championship games have been won by the home team with the winner earning victory by an average margin of 8 points. I’m positive Andrew Luck will carry Indianapolis to a Superbowl one day, but I just don’t envision that happening this year. New England is far to deep on both sides of the ball, not to mention they have been nearly impenetrable at Gillette Stadium in January since Brady took over. Don’t shy away from placing some bank on the Patriots this weekend. All the pieces are in place for Brady to secure a sixth shot at Superbowl ring number four of his career.

TRENDS

INDIANPOLIS

1-3 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5-7 points the last three seasons
5-9 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last three years
11-23 against the spread versus New England since 1992

NEW ENGLAND

9-1 against the spread in home games when the total is 49.5 or greater in the last three seasons
6-2 against the spread versus AFC South opponents the last three seasons
10-3 against the spread versus conference opponents this season

FINAL SCORE – COLTS 31 – PATRIOTS 42

Now that you’re well aware I’m predicting a Patriots/Packers Superbowl. I figured I would toss in a couple prop bets that offer value almost to good to be true this weekend. Take a look below to see some fliers I’ll be playing on this weekend. Good luck and hopefully you all come out on top following this weekends conference championships.

TRIBET – PACKERS/SEAHAWKS – ANY OTHER RESULT (+225)

This bet offers great value and tons of margin. I’ve personally been hitting winners on it all season. I’m predicting a close matchup in this game so hammering some cash on this bet doesn’t hurt. It’s paying over 3/1 and you won’t find better return on a game that has close score written all over it. Just hold you’re breath that whoever secures victory wins by 5-points or less.

TOUCHDOWN SCORERS – JORDY NELSON – ANYTIME (+130)

While Jordy Nelson should have Richard Sherman drooped all over his this Sunday I’m expecting he breaks away and catches at least one touchdown. He has gone back-to-back games without catching a score, his longest of the season. He’s due for a big game this weekend and I’m expecting he fully delivers. Rodgers overthrew him a couple times against the Cowboys, I don’t see that happening for a second consecutive weekend.

TOUCHDOWN SCORES – ROB GRONKOWSKI – FIRST (+700)

Paying 7/1 for Gronk to score the first touchdown of the game between the Patriots and Colts? Seems like a no-brainer to me. Great value here and he has been one of Brady’s favourite red zone targets all season. While I’ve already mentioned the man has a touchdown in each of his last four games.

TOTAL RUSH YARDS – RUSSEL WILSON – UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Hustle-Bustle-Man-Musle-Wilson had several successful games rushing the ball this season but I’m expecting the Packers place a quarterback spy on him for most of this game. It’s going to be their number one game plan; keep Wilson in the pocket and make him work. I just don’t see him breaking lose for anywhere near 45 yards this weekend.

TOTAL RECEPTIONS – COBY FLEENER – OVER 3.5 (-125)

Expecting the Colts to be playing from behind most of this game, Luck will once again be throwing the ball a lot. Fleener has become a security blanket for him this season and in it can be seen in the 6 targets per game he has been averaging since week thirteen. Watching him catch four or more passes this weekend seems almost a guarantee.

PLAYER TO RECORD AN INTERCEPTION – DARRELLE REVIS – YES (+275)

Revis played a mediocre game last weekend against the Ravens. If it wasn’t for Steve Smith getting injured early on a lot more damage could have been done on his side of the ball. With that being said I’m expecting a bounce back performance from him this weekend and with Luck’s history against the Patriots secondary this is a juicy bet.