NFL Conference Championship Picks 2013

Straight to the point, I’ve been absolute shit picking winners since the playoffs started. I have seem to hit a slump at what some would call the worst time of the year, but none the less with the games continuing so shall my opinions and predictions. Looking back at last weekend I finished a combined 0-3-1. Seattle was the only positive of the weekend and even they only earned me a push by winning by 8. Indianapolis and their inexperience shined bright in New England when they failed to cover anywhere close to 7 points. Carolina had the NFC championships within sight but the 49ers burst that bubble fast running away with it in the second. While for the final game of the week, it looked as though Denver would clinch victory by at least 10 points but a late Chargers touchdown, onside kick recovery and field goal squashed that hope.

Looking ahead at the NFC and AFC conference finals I think it is safe to say there is no surprise in this years round of 4. The Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks were all early favourites to compete for the Superbowl entering this season, and for the first time in a while there was no upsets. Here is how I’m looking at the games this weekend; whether you choose to agree, disagree, concur, or dispute my predictions it doesn’t matter. That is the beautiful thing about sports and the NFL, everyone has an opinion and mine is as follows;

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP  

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS DENVER BRONCOS (-5.5) 
ODDS: BET365 


The Denver Broncos (14-3) will host the New England Patriots (13-4) in a rematch game of week 12 and one that will decide who advances to SuperBowl XLVIII. Denver will be aiming for revenge after losing 34-31 in overtime in the first meeting between these teams this year. That game had to cut extra deep for the following reasons; at half-time the Broncos lead 24-0, an unlucky deflected punt in overtime ultimately decided the outcome, and Peyton’s career record worsened to 4-10 against Tom Brady. For the conference championship between these surely hall of famers oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as 5.5-point favourites with a total set of 56 points.

Almost every statistical trend and matchup indicator you could analyze for the game points towards picking the Patriots to cover 5.5, but I simply don’t look at it this way. Peyton Manning has been beaten down almost his entire career by Tom Brady and Bill Bellchick. You have to think that he is by now past the night terrors and wetting the bed stages and should win this weekend solely on the basis of them playing at home. While it is often overlooked how it is a tale of two men when Peyton plays the Patriots at home compared to on the road. Overall when playing at home Peyton is 2-3 against the Brady and Bellchick; meaning that 7 of those 10 overall losses have actually come at a disadvantage. His numbers don’t lie either; in those 5 home games Peyton hasn’t had a quarterback rating dip below 79 (averaging 92.4) and has had only one game with multiple interceptions. Now lets compare bullet proof pretty boy Tom Brady. He has thrown 6 of his 12 total interceptions in the 5 game they’ve met on the road, and has eclipsed 300 yards passing only once across that same span. While much unlike Peyton Manning and good glass of wine, he is getting worse with age. Since the beginning of the 2011 regular season Tom Brady is 1-5 when playing on the road during the regular season against teams that qualified for the playoffs that same year. He quite simply isn’t bringing his “A” game on the road and they have lost their ability to close out great teams. This year they went 0-2 on the road against eventual playoff teams (Carolina, Cincinnati) and actually suffered all 4 of their losses away from Gillette Stadium this season. Wrap that up in the fact the Broncos suffered possibly their worst loss all season long in New England earlier this season and will be thirsty to gain revenge for their second half collapse. I think there is a valid conviction here for Peyton Manning and the Broncos to win and make the Superbowl for the first time since 1988.

Analysts have been abuzz all week questioning how the Broncos will stop LeGarrette Blount and the Patriots rushing attack; well here is how I see it. New England has been able to run the ball a copious amount of times in their last three games because they have been ahead in each game. It would take an idiot and an uneducated football fan to not understand strategy, when a team is behind in the game coaches refrain from running the ball. Now I’m not saying I expect the Patriots to be playing this game from a huge deficit, but running the ball 41 times this Sunday (their average run plays per game in their last 3) seems extremely unlikely for a couple reasons. Denver finished the season ranked 8th in the league against the rush and has been shutting down running backs all season. They have made it difficult for coaches to stick to a running game because frankly they usually have such a large lead early it is impossible. Just look back at their first meeting, it took Brady 50 passes and 34 completions later to mount a comeback and beat Peyton in Gillette. But this time around their passing attack will not be nearly as fearsome. Gronkowski played in the last meeting posting 7 catches for 90 yards and 1 touchdown, but more importantly he demanded double coverage for almost every play he was involved in. Without him Denver will easily be able to key on less talented players like Edelman and Amendola. Shutting down an already weakened Patriots passing attack.

As most of you have already guessed, I’m predicting a Bronco’s victory here. The one and only bold prediction I have for this game is that Wes Welker will play a much larger role this time around. Look for him to finish with 100 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday against his former team as the Broncos roll over the Patriots on route to a Superbowl appearance.

TRENDS 


NEW ENGLAND 

• 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 playoff games
• 2-7 against the spread after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
• 8-20 against the spread after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game
• 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 conference championship games

NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) 


ODDS: BET365 


Two of the best defensive teams in the league this season will take the field this weekend in the NFC Championship game when Seattle (14-3) hosts San Francisco (15-4). These two divisional rivals looked to be on a collision course all season long; they split victories going 1-1 head-to-head this season with each gaining their perspective victories at home. However, it is the 49ers that enter on a 8 game win streak and look to make their second Superbowl appearance in as many years. But don’t expect that to happen without Seattle’s two cents; they are a combined 15-1 at home in the last two seasons. Oddsmakers have basically listed home field advantage in favour of Seattle making them as 3.5-point favourites, while deciding on an over/under of 39.

If these two rivals were gearing up to face-off in a neutral location this weekend it would be a coin flip who take home the victory, they matchup up almost perfectly. But unfortunately for the 49ers and all their fans this game isn’t being played in a neutral location, its being played at Century Link Stadium; what some call the most difficult stadium in all professional sports to play in. While I’m sure by now mainstream media has already battered this into your brains, its hard to ignore the fact this could very well decide this football game. Seattle has a 7-2 record at home against San Francisco since 2003. Remember, that dates well back to before both these teams were on a level playing field and listed in the NFL elite.

With everything aside, Seattle has definitively the best defensive core in all of football. Richard Sherman is unparalleled when discussing the best cornerbacks in the league (5 more interceptions than any player the last three years proves that). While Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor have been the best safety duo all season long. But to fully understand just great the Legion of Boom is all we have to do is look at Colin Kaepernick’s numbers. Kaepernick had an average QB rating of 97.2, threw 22 total passing touchdowns, and had only 5 interceptions in 14 games this season. Those other two games where he faced Seattle, Kaepernick’s average QB was 41.7, he completed only one passing touchdown and nearly tied his total interceptions for every other game with 4. Its not a question of will he struggle against this extremely talented Seattle defense, but how much.

What I am expecting to ultimately decide this game will be Marshawn Lynch’s ability to keep his legs moving, find the holes, and pick up first downs. All things I am banking on and if the past is any indication on what the future holds than we looks to be in good hands. In the only two playoff games Lynch has played at home in his career he is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, 136 yards per game, and has a combined 3 touchdowns. Leading me to expect he will once again find his sweet spot, and in turn give rhythm to their entire offense. Which should allow Russell Wilson to attack the 49ers secondary making his proper check downs and use play action to go downfield to his open receivers. Regardless of the outcome for this matchup, it has the making to be one of thee best games all season long. Richard Sherman called it when he said “I almost guarantee we will meet again” after their 14 matchup. For me, it just seems idiotic to bet against the best defense in the league at home in the most difficult stadium to play inside in nearly all of sports.

TRENDS 


SAN FRANCISCO 

• 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games versus Seattle
• 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games playing on the road in Seattle