With the football season coming to a close and the NHL still locked out I decided that I would begin to handicap NCAA basketball. I have been hitting accurately the last couple days and figure I would finally put my picks into ink to document my record and share my knowledge. Here is one of the games I will be watching tonight.
CONFERENCE USA VS SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
MEMPHIS TIGERS VS TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (-2)
ODDS: BET365
Tennessee welcomes Memphis into Thompson-Boiling Arena for their first game away from home all season long. The Tigers enter this game with a 9-3 record this season, while the Volunteers themselves are 8-3.
This game looks like it could become a battle of point guards. Joe Jackson (Memphis) is leading this Tigers offense with 13.2 PPG and 4.4 APG. While the Volunteers are led by Trae Golden, he is averaging 12.4 PPG and 4.5 APG. Both these guys are capable of scoring in open space and leaders on their teams. What is even more impressive is both are doing so in their junior seasons.
Something that I like to focus on in almost every NCAA basketball matchup when it is between two strong basketball programs is home court advantage. Usually when it is a close matchup like this, it comes down to home court advantage and days of rest. Good teams always find a way to pull away and walk away victorious in close games played at home. This game is a perfect fit for this play. Memphis is playing their first game away this season and we don’t know how they will perform off travel. Although they have a 9-3 record they have been a terrible 3-6 against the spread this season. While all three loses have come at the hands of teams with an above .500 record.
As for the Volunteers they are quietly stringing together another nice season. They have a 8-3 record but even better are 6-0 at home this year. They haven’t been putting up the greatest offensive numbers but enter this matchup winning 4 straight and are outscoring opponents by an average of 13 points at home. I am taking the Volunteers in tonight matchup at -2, will you?
TRENDS
MEMPHIS
- 0-2 against the spread as an underdog this season
- 11-23 against the spread versus non-conference opponents over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE
- 15-4 against the spread in all home games over the last 2 seasons
- 8-5 against the spread versus Memphis since 1997
- 168-62 straight up after a non-conference matchup since 1997
FINAL – TIGERS 57 – VOLUNTEERS 64