March Madness is finally here! With the tournament scheduled to tip-off at 12:15 EST this Thursday between Valparaiso and Michigan State, I figured I would do an analysis of who I see having the best shot of pulling off the upsets in the first round.
Oklahoma State enters the NCAA tournament as one of five teams representing the BIG 12 conference. This team has shown they can compete with some of the best in the country finishing with a 1-1 record against conference rival and #1 seeded Kansas, while losing by 1 point to Gonzaga at home. Much of their success is due to great defensive play and that their back court contains the most prolific freshman in the country, Marcus Smart led this Cowboys team in points, free throws, and steals this season.
Looking at the Ducks I can’t help but feel they got the short end of the stick in seeding for the tourney. This season they defeated #5 seeded UNLV, #6 Arizona and finished only a single game behind #6 UCLA for the PAC-12 regular season title. They went on to defeat UCLA for the PAC-12 tournament title this past weekend and somehow still got shafted with the #12 seed while both the Bruins and Wildcats take home #6 seeds? I don’t quite understand that one, maybe one of you folks will. The odds that this Oregon team advances into the second round is seriously under estimated right now. They are listed at +145 to win outright, serious value with the ugly #12 seed the ducks have been dealt.
Neither of these teams come into the NCAA tournament rolling on wins, but they match up much closer than their seeds portray. UCLA looked to be reaching their stride when guard Jordan Adams went down with a broken ankle. A replacement for his 15 PPG average will be difficult, I expect the responsibility to fall on the shoulders of Shabazz Muhammad and Larry Drew II. Both incredible players but a daunting task, not to mention it looked like Muhammad already has one foot out the door after their loss against Oregon in the conference championship.
Minnesota enters the tournament from arguably the best conference in college basketball, the Big Ten. They are stumbling in, but if they happen to find they’re early season form it wouldn’t be a shocker to see them knock off UCLA. They had victories this season against #3 Michigan State, #5 Wisconsin, #6 Memphis, #7 Illinois, and at one point were the best rebounding team in the nation. Something that should be of concern to Bruins fans given that UCLA has struggled all season in rebounding category. Trevor Mbakwe will be the key in this game, he averaged 8.7 RPG for Minnesota this season and if the Bruins can’t matchup to his size it will seriously hurt their chances of making the next round.
#12 CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS VS #5 UNLV REBELS
This marks a rematch of a regular season game between these two schools. The Rebels came into California and edged the Golden Bears 76-75 in early december. I expect this to turn into a very similar type game. UNLV rosters one of the best players in the country Anthony Bennet, but as a team they have struggled to find consistency this season. They boaster victories against #7 San Diego State and #8 Colorado State, but also lost twice against Fresno State, a team that didn’t even qualify for the tournament. They have struggled playing away from home this year and haven’t even had a difficult schedule. It will be interesting to see which Rebel team decides to show up on game day.
California on the other hand really found their form near the end of the season. They went on a seven game win steak where they beat the #6 seeded Arizona, #6 UCLA, #12 Oregon and #10 Colorado. Showing that the Golden Bears are no stranger when it comes to playing good teams. The fact that this game marks possible revenge against the Rebels, it wouldn’t be a long shot for them to upset. Don’t overlook the fact this team limits opponents to shoot 39.6% from the field, and are great at taking care of the ball. While junior Allen Crabbe wasn’t named PAC-12 player of the year for nothing, he will be a huge contributor in California’s success.
